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U.S. lacks strategic response to surging ag trade deficit... As we previously reported, USDA projects a $49.5 billion agricultural trade deficit for fiscal year 2025, nearly double the gap from two years ago. If current trends hold, industry experts warn the deficit could hit $100 billion within a few short years.
At the core of the problem is a rapidly evolving global marketplace that the U.S. appears increasingly ill-equipped to navigate. From shifting supply chains to aggressive trade strategies by key competitors like Brazil, Australia, and the EU, the landscape for ag exports is changing fast — and the U.S. is falling behind.
“We have no plan — none — to deal with this growing trade gap,” said one senior industry executive. “It’s not just bad policy; it’s no policy at all.”
While the U.S. remains focused on retaliatory tariffs and domestic protectionism, its competitors are signing trade agreements, investing in port infrastructure and aggressively promoting exports. Brazil has ramped up grain exports to China. The EU is pushing organic and sustainable branding. Canada and Australia are capitalizing on open market access via the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
“The global ag market is changing — and we’re stuck in 2018 policy mode,” warned a former USDA trade advisor. “If we don’t get ahead of this, we’ll cede market share for a generation.”
With a newly assembled trade team at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and USDA, the Trump administration faces mounting pressure to act. Farm groups are urging the White House to prioritize new trade deals that open markets for ag products.
But some industry insiders say the administration is too focused on broad tariff threats and “reciprocal tariffs,” while neglecting granular trade promotion and technical access issues that matter most for ag commodities.
To stem the tide, ag stakeholders and policymakers must move fast:
- Develop a coordinated ag trade strategy that links USTR, USDA and key export industries.
- Rebuild trade promotion programs, including Foreign Market Development (FMD) and Market Access Program (MAP).
- Negotiate targeted market access with nations where barriers have quietly reemerged (e.g., India, Philippines, Egypt).
- Create a rapid-response ag trade task force to respond to emerging competitor gains and trade shifts.
Trump says Russia will respond to Ukraine attacks... President Donald Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin told him he would have to respond to Ukraine’s recent attack, saying there isn’t likely to be immediate peace between Moscow and Kyiv.
“President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields,” Trump posted on Truth Social, saying the two leaders spoke on a call that lasted about one hour and 15 minutes.
Ukraine’s drone strikes last weekend cast a shadow over ongoing talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Progress in U.S., EU trade talks... Trade talks between the U.S. and European Union advanced quickly on Wednesday, representatives said, as new U.S. metals tariffs added urgency to the negotiations. EUs trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said their meeting in Paris was constructive.
“We both concluded that we are advancing in the right direction, at pace,” Sefcovic told reporters. Technical talks were ongoing in Washington, he said, and high-level contacts will follow. “What makes me optimistic is I see the progress ... the discussions are now very concrete.”
Greer said the talks demonstrated “a willingness by the EU to work with us to find a concrete way forward to achieve reciprocal trade.”
British PM promises trade deal will be done in ‘very short time’... Britain’s trade deal with The U.S. will be in force “within a very short time,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised. President Trump doubled steel tariffs with all but the United Kingdom, but left them at 25% for the UK, giving the British government a five-week deadline to implement the trade pact. If the deal isn’t implemented to Trump’s satisfaction by July 9, he warned the UK could be hit with the higher 50% rate.
“We are working on it to bring it down to zero, that is going to happen,” Starmer said. He told British Members of Parliament: “We have a deal and we are implementing it and within a very short time I am confident we will get those tariffs down in accordance with the deal.”
Chinese nationals charged with smuggling dangerous pathogen into United States... On June 3, U.S. federal authorities charged two Chinese nationals, Yunqing Jian and Zunyong Liu, with conspiring to smuggle a dangerous biological pathogen into the United States. The pathogen, Fusarium graminearum, is a crop-destroying fungus classified by the FBI as a potential agroterrorism weapon due to its capacity to devastate wheat, barley, corn and rice crops, leading to billions of dollars in global agricultural losses annually.
Jian, 33, a research fellow at the University of Michigan and alleged member of the Chinese Communist Party, is accused of receiving Chinese government funding for her work on the pathogen in China. Her partner, Liu, 34, a researcher at a Chinese university, was intercepted at Detroit Metropolitan Airport in July 2024 attempting to smuggle the fungus concealed in his luggage. Initially denying knowledge of the materials, Liu later admitted he intended to conduct research on the pathogen at the University of Michigan lab where Jian worked.
The charges against the pair include conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., making false statements and visa fraud. Investigators found electronic communications between Jian and Liu discussing the shipment of biological materials and research activities related to the fungus. Additionally, Jian’s electronic devices contained a signed statement expressing loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party.
The University of Michigan stated it had not received any Chinese government funding related to the research conducted by the accused individuals and is cooperating with federal authorities.
This case underscores growing concerns over biosecurity and the potential use of biological materials in acts of terrorism or geopolitical sabotage.
Of note: Fusarium graminearum is already present in the U.S. and is a well-known pathogen responsible for Fusarium head blight (FHB), a disease that affects cereal crops such as wheat and barley. This fungus has been a significant concern for U.S. agriculture, particularly in the Midwest, where it has caused substantial economic losses due to reduced crop yields and grain quality. However, the recent case involving the smuggling of Fusarium graminearum into the U.S. raises serious concerns. While the pathogen is already present domestically, introducing foreign strains can be problematic. Different strains may possess unique genetic characteristics, including increased virulence or resistance to existing control measures. The introduction of such strains could potentially exacerbate the impact of the disease on U.S. agriculture.
USA rice pushes for rail fixes in U.S./Mexico ag trade talks... The U.S. rice industry joined nearly 50 participants in a high-level Executive Roundtable on U.S./Mexico Agricultural Trade and Transportation this week, with transportation inefficiencies — particularly rail access — taking center stage. The roundtable marked the first public event for newly appointed U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson. Mexico’s Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegué Sacristá emphasized the countries’ interdependence, stating they “complement, rather than compete with one another.”
USA Rice COO Sarah Moran, representing the rice sector, spotlighted the urgent need for railcar access. “At one point, nearly 100% of U.S. rice entering Mexico came via rail but now it’s closer to 35%,” Moran told attendees. “For the U.S. rice that does utilize rail, there is the challenge of finding available and usable rail cars. Nearly all the industry representatives here noted the railcar shortage and ranked it as one of the higher priority issues to resolve.”
Presentations from USDA economists underscored how rising U.S./Mexico trade — already topping $840 billion in 2024 — is straining transport infrastructure. Representatives from UP, CPKC, BNSF, and Ferromex discussed plans to modernize rail lines and inspection timelines. A formal request was made to SENASICA, Mexico’s food safety agency, to expand weekend inspection services and explore origin/destination-based inspections to ease border congestion.
With cross-border ag trade accelerating, Moran emphasized, “This isn’t just about rice — it’s about building a logistics framework that can carry both countries into the future.”
U.S. inflation data collection hurt by staff shortages... Federal government staffing shortages from Trump administration hiring freezes have forced the Labor Department’s economic statistics arm to curtail the breadth of its data collection for one of the main measures of U.S. inflation, the Wall Street Journal reported. WSJ said the Bureau of Labor Statistics beginning in April reduced the number of businesses at which it checks prices for the benchmark Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
“The CPI temporarily reduced the number of outlets and quotes it attempted to collect due to a staffing shortage in certain CPI cities,” beginning in April, a BLS email to private economists and shared with WSJ read. “These procedures will be kept in place until the hiring freeze is lifted, and additional staff can be hired and trained.”
Economists say the staffing shortage and reduced data raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports.