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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... There’s an increased level of uncertainty on the tariff front as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are now caught up in a legal battle. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit quickly granted a stay of the lower court’s injunction, temporarily reinstating the tariffs while the administration pursues its appeal of the decision. The legal battle could take months, though experts expect a relatively quick decision. If the unlawful ruling holds up, the Trump administration has alternative means of applying tariffs. USDA’s initial corn and spring wheat crop condition ratings came in lower than expected, while the planting and emergence of spring crops remains ahead of average. The summer weather outlook calls for warmer and drier conditions, though weather isn’t expected to be generally favorable. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Trump says China ‘totally violated’ tariffs deal, wants to speak to Xi... President Donald Trump said China had violated an agreement with the U.S. to mutually roll back tariffs and trade restrictions for critical minerals and promised to get tougher on Beijing.
“China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Trump’s message did not specify how China had violated the agreement made in Geneva, Switzerland, or what action he would take against Beijing. But a U.S. official told Reuters it appears China was moving slowly on promises to issue export licenses for rare earths minerals. The deal called for China to lift trade countermeasures that restrict its exports of the critical metals needed for U.S. semiconductor, electronics and defense production.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC the flow of critical minerals from China has not resumed as called for by the Geneva agreement. “The Chinese are slow-rolling their compliance, which is completely unacceptable and it has to be addressed,” Greer said, without specifying how that would happen.
Trump said Friday afternoon he expected to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding the situation.
Rollins embarks on global trade mission... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will travel to Italy next week, launching a multi-country diplomatic mission aimed at opening new markets for American agricultural products. Speaking on Fox Business, Rollins confirmed that she will also visit India, Vietnam and Japan in the coming weeks, followed by a separate trip to South America.
Rollins said the trade push will not only center on reducing tariffs and pushing for reciprocity, but will also tackle growing concerns around non-tariff trade barriers that limit access for U.S. goods abroad. “We’re going to be aggressive on behalf of our producers,” she said. “This is about cutting through the red tape that blocks our farmers and ranchers, not just lowering tariff lines.”
Her travels come amid renewed global trade tensions and as President Trump’s administration seeks new bilateral deals to offset the impact of recent tariff rulings and retaliation threats from trading partners.
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eases to 7-month low... The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.1% above year-ago in April — the lowest since last September. Core PCE inflation, minus food and energy prices, dropped to 2.5% — the lowest since March 2021. The steady deceleration in both headline and core inflation strengthens the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, as officials continue to weigh recent tariff-related inflation risks against slowing underlying price pressures.
India cuts edible oils import duty... India halved the basic import duty on crude palm oil, crude soybean oil and crude sunflower oil to 10%, the government said in a notification seen by Reuters. This will effectively reduce the total import duty on the three oils from 27.5% to 16.5%, as they are also subject to India’s Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Levy and Social Welfare Surcharge.
China issues countrywide ban on Brazilian poultry imports... China has issued a ban on all imports of poultry and related products from Brazil after an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), two weeks after suspending import applications from the country’s poultry farms. It also said all animal and plant waste from inbound ships from Brazil must be treated under customs’ supervision and not discarded without authorization.
The Brazilian government had asked China to restrict its embargo to poultry products just from where the outbreak occurred in Rio Grande do Sul state.
Initial agreements on BRICS grain exchange model may be presented at Brazil summit... The first fundamental agreements on the conceptual model of the BRICS grain exchange may be presented at the summit in Brazil July 6-7, Interfax news reported. The initiative to create such an exchange was originally proposed by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, then supported by President Vladimir Putin and endorsed by the business communities of the BRICS member countries.
The new trading platform will allow BRICS countries to develop independent and fair price indicators within the bloc, which will help provide a more objective valuation of agricultural products on the global market, according to the Russian Union of Grain Exporters.
OPEC+ may discuss even bigger oil output hike for July... OPEC+ may discuss a hike in oil output for July at its meeting on Saturday larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increases it made for May and June, sources familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters. Eight OPEC+ countries have been raising output more rapidly than earlier planned, even though the extra supply has weighed on prices. The strategy of group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia is partly to punish over-producing allies and to win back market share.
CEO confidence plunges amid trade turmoil, recession fears... U.S. corporate leaders are rapidly losing faith in the economic outlook as President Trump’s trade war and fears of a slowdown weigh heavily on boardroom sentiment. According to a new report from the Conference Board and the Business Council, CEO confidence plunged to 34 in the second quarter, down from 60 in the first quarter — one of the steepest quarterly declines on record. (A reading below 50 indicates pessimism.)
More than half of CEOs now anticipate deteriorating conditions for both the overall economy and their specific industries in the coming six months.
Key survey findings:
- Only 28% of CEOs plan to increase hiring, down from 32% last quarter.
- 26% plan to cut capital spending, up from just 13% previously.
- 71% are preparing for a “brief and shallow U.S. recession” within the next 12 to 18 months.