President Donald Trump has postponed his trip to China for a summit with counterpart Xi Jinping had been “reset” and suggested it would take place in Mid-May according to Bloomberg.
More to come?: Agriculture commodity markets have yet to fully price in the fallout from the Iran conflict, and a deepening nitrogen fertilizer crisis could trigger a new bull cycle in grains if the war extends into the second half of 2026, according to Bank of America.
Analysts Daryna Kovalksa and Franscisco Blanch note that urea prices have surged 30-40% across regions since Operation Epic Fury began, reflecting risks to 65-70% of global supplies – a disruption in broader scale than the 2022 fertilizer crisis.
Meanwhile, they noted energy pass-through via transportation costs, which account for 20-40% of final landed prices, has already contributed gains of up to 5% across other agricultural markets.
Assuming farmers in the Northern Hemisphere have largely secured nitrogen for spring planting, there is roughly a six-month window before supply disruptions cause irreversible damage to the corn market, the analysts add, a window that maps directly into Brazil’s fertilizer procurement cycle ahead of October plantings.
An unlikely attack: Iran’s attacks on Qatar have damaged facilities that produce 17% of the company’s liquefied gas export capacity and it will take three to five years to repair them, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters in an interview earlier today.
“I never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar would be – Qatar and the region – in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way,” he said.
Pipeline efforts cease: The Saudi port of Yanbu, one of two major remaining export routes for Gulf Arab oil, after Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, has stopped oil loadings, two sources told Reuters earlier today, after the Saudi defense ministry said it intercepted a ballistic missile over the city.
A coordinated release: Japan, Canada and South Korea will be among the largest contributors to a coordinated release of emergency oil stockpiles in response to disruption from the Iran war, the International Agency said earlier today.
The release comes as a part of the IEA’s move to release as much as 400 million barrels as concerns grow over what it has called the largest supply disruption on record.
Bloomberg reports the contributions will largely consist of crude oil supplies, while in Europe they will primarily be refined oil products. Production among key producers in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed as tankers await transit through Hormuz and storage tanks fill.
The agency has said initial oil volumes have started to be made available to the market. Supplies for Asia would start to flow right away, while Europe and the Americas were scheduled to reach the market toward the end of March.
Brazilian biodiesel producers ready for B20: Brazil’s government should allow more biodiesel to be blended into conventional diesel to combat the energy price crisis caused by the conflict in Iran, oilseed crushers’ association Abiove told Reuters on Thursday.
Brazil’s energy minister last week called for more tests before increasing the mix of biodiesel - made from soy and products like beef tallow, among others - in diesel from the current legally required blend of 15%.
The country’s biodiesel producers are ready to support a 20% mix - known as B20 - said Daniel Amaral, Abiove’s economic affairs director, adding that authorities should let the market use higher blends than legally required if there is demand.
“That alone would provide a cushioning component for those shocks,” he said in a video interview.
Brazil’s government has long weighed calls for higher biodiesel blends against concerns it would divert soybeans from food production, pushing up food prices.
Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Tuesday that increasing the biodiesel mix was not an immediate government target but acknowledged the topic had been discussed after being asked if the government would raise the blend to 16% amid the crisis.
Sheinbaum sends bill to Congress: Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum sent a bill to Congress aimed at promoting public and private investment in strategic infrastructure, at a time when her government is pushing to lure capital to stimulate sluggish economic growth, according to Bloomberg.
The bill was sent to the lower house on Wednesday night, and proposes establishing investment coordination mechanisms designed to channel resources from both public and private sectors, according to the document seen by Bloomberg News.
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