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Muted market reaction to USDA’s reports... USDA cut old- and new-crop corn ending stocks, while it made no changes to the soybean carryover forecasts for either 2024-25 or 2025-26. USDA left its winter wheat crop estimate unchanged but lowered projected new-crop ending stocks. The biggest changes were for cotton, with sharp cuts to both old- and new-crop ending stocks, though that failed to spur buyer interest in futures. Click here to view full report details.
EPA set to propose biomass-based diesel quotas below industry expectations... EPA on Friday will propose new biofuel blending requirements for the next two years that will likely include a lower biomass-based diesel mandate than industry groups had requested, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. EPA’s coming announcement is expected to be below the 5.25 billion gallons a biofuel coalition led by the American Petroleum Institute sought.
Industry participants are also awaiting indication on how EPA will address outstanding small refinery exemptions (SREs) from previous blending mandates. There are more than 160 outstanding SREs, some of which date back to 2016.
We’ve also heard EPA may issue details on the 45Z clean fuel credit on Friday.
Corn, soybean drought footprint shrinks... As of June 10, the Drought Monitor showed 48% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down two percentage points from the previous week. USDA estimated D1-D4 drought conditions covered 18% of corn area (down three points), 13% of soybeans (down three points), 20% of spring wheat (up one point) and 6% of cotton production areas (unchanged). Abnormal dryness (D0) still covers a good portion of the upper Midwest, along with the Central and Northern Plains.
Across major corn, soybean, wheat and cotton states, dryness/drought covered 80% of Iowa (no D3 or D4), 38% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 23% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 66% of Minnesota (no D3 or D4), 100% of Nebraska (no D3 or D4), 80% of South Dakota (no D3 or D4), 37% of North Dakota (no D3 or D4), 41% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 60% of Colorado (5% D3, no D4), 41% of Texas (16% D3 or D4), 47% of Wisconsin (no D3 or D4) and 28% of Michigan (no D3 or D4). No measurable dryness/drought was reported for Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas or Oklahoma.
Click here to view related maps.
Trump addresses immigration changes amid backlash over deportations... President Donald Trump acknowledged his stepped-up deportation drive is fueling deep concern among farmers and the hospitality sector, promising changes to U.S. immigration policy to address worker shortages that are now hitting businesses hard.
“Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, saying he would act to “protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA.”
The Trump administration has launched the largest deportation push in U.S. history, ordering Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to ramp up daily arrests from an average of 630 to more than 2,000, with a stated goal of 3,000 per day and over 1 million removals annually. Recent ICE operations have included a high-profile raid at a meat processing plant in Omaha, Nebraska, and field sweeps in California’s agricultural heartland, sparking national protests — especially in Los Angeles, where Trump has deployed the National Guard and Marines to protect federal agents and property.
Nearly half of America’s 850,000 crop workers are undocumented, according to USDA data. Trump has signaled openness to allowing employers to advocate for certain workers to remain, even floating a process for “great” employees to be temporarily slowed for deportation and then potentially returned as legal workers.
The White House is also reviewing possible changes to the H-2A and H-2B visa programs to ease temporary hiring in agriculture, hospitality and tourism — though specific policy details remain in development.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Trump would look at every available tool to address farm workers amid his ongoing immigration crackdown. “The president understands that we can’t feed our nation or the world without that labor force, and he’s listening to the farmers on that,” Rollins told CNBC.
Senate GOP unveils ag provisions in reconciliation bill... Senate Republicans on Wednesday released the agriculture section of their budget reconciliation bill, closely mirroring the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill on core farm policy reforms. Like the House, the Senate version includes increased reference prices and a provision for a voluntary base update for farm program eligibility.
The Senate Ag Committee also adopted the House’s proposal to shift some Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit costs to states. However, the Senate softened the impact by proposing lower state cost-share rates than the House, though both versions use state SNAP error rates to determine each state’s obligation. A key structural change in both bills would raise states’ share of SNAP administrative costs from 50% to 75%, increasing pressure on state budgets even as the federal government continues covering the full cost of benefits.
Fiscal impact:
- Senate bill net savings: $144 billion over 10 years
- House bill net savings: $238 billion over 10 years
This divergence signals continuing negotiations between chambers as Republicans seek to finalize President Trump’s full reconciliation package this summer.
Trump signs measure to overturn California’s EV mandate... Trump signed a congressional resolution that overturns a California state rule that would have phased out the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035. He also signed resolutions that overturned separate California rules requiring most new trucks sold in the state to also be electric.
A group of 11 states led by California filed suit challenging the repeal of the state’s 2035 EV rules and heavy duty truck requirements. The suit filed in U.S. District Court in northern claimed the vote by Congress was unlawful and asked a judge to declare the resolutions “have no effect on the status or enforceability of state emissions control program.”Trump spoke Thursday at a signing ceremony for legislation terminating California regulations that would have banned the sale of gasoline-powered cars in 2035 — a long-sought victory for some carmakers and oil companies that attacked the rules as unachievable.