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Copper futures hit a record high, with the front-month Comex contract rising 2.8% to $6.78 a pound in New York, above its precious record of $6.7095, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A scramble to move copper into U.S. warehouses ahead of potential tariff changes as well as robust demand tied to the AI boom were cited as the primary drivers of the move, but zoom out and it’s part of a broader commodity story, said Jeffrey Currie, founder and CEO of Real Macro and former head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, in an X post.
- “This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle,” Currie wrote. “Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.”
Currie has been arguing for a bull case across commodities driven in part by scarcity that’s amplified by trade conflicts and other constraints, alongside war in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, as well as growing weather concerns.
He continued: “Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal. Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring “higher highs across more markets”. Copper is now doing exactly that.”
- Oil flirts with $100 a barrel: Meanwhile, global oil benchmark Brent crude traded near the $100 a barrel threshold after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure. WTI ended with a gain of 1.9% at $93.03 a barrel, a three-month high.. Brent gained 0.9% to $97.92, its highest close since July 23.
Market recap: Grain futures put in a mixed performance, with wheat underpinned by reports Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing the country’s war in Ukraine after meeting with U.S. envoys.
- December soft red winter wheat rose 13 cents to $7.47, finishing near mid-range.
- December corn fell 3 ¼ cents to $5.33 ½ on profit-taking pressure, ending near the session low.
- November soybeans rose 6 ½ cents to $13.17 ¼, ending nearer the session high.
- December cotton lost one point to close at 86.32 cents.
- October live cattle rose $4.075 to $217.025, hitting a two-week high, while November feeders rose $5.725 to $320.45, hitting a three-week high.
- October lean-hog futures rose $1.95 to $84.25.
Corn conditions slip: Weekly crop progress data showed corn conditions fell slightly in the week ended Sunday, while soybean conditions were unchanged.
- The percentage of the corn crop rated “good” or “excellent” declined to 56% from 57% a week ago, in line with the average analyst surveyed by Bloomberg. The corn harvest was seen at 5% complete, a point ahead of the average estimate. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale: 500 equals perfect), which uses state data to provide a single, weighted figure, fell 1.67 points for corn with most states seeing minor declines.
- The percentage of the soybean crop rated good or excellent held steady from last week at 58%, defying expectations for a drop of 1 percentage point and ending a streak of four straight weekly declines. The soybean CCI fell 2.2 points to 355.35. See more details on this week’s Pro Farmer CCI ratings here.
- USDA said 86% of the spring wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 77% a week ago and compared with 85% last year. Four percent of the winter wheat crop had been planted, in line with expectations.
China’s crushers feel the squeeze: China’s private soybean crushers face a fourth-quarter supply squeeze as inventories tighten in top exporter Brazil and tariffs keep U.S. cargoes largely out of reach, Reuters reported Monday. Pressure is already on the world’s biggest oilseed processing industry due to negative margins and weakening feed demand as China shrinks its pig herd, the report noted, with crushers hoping that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington this month will see Beijing ease a 10% import tariff on U.S. agricultural goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday that both countries would make “some announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers” during the summit, without providing specifics, according to Reuters.
Kalshi commodity prediction markets grow: Predictions market platform Kalshi on Monday said its commodities prediction markets have hit $400 million in trading volume, which is four times the volume the firm’s crypto markets saw at the same point in their lifecycle. Kalshi’s commodities prediction markets include gold, silver, copper, WTI crude oil, Brent crude, gasoline, and natural gas.
MAHA preferences are nonpartisan: Food preferences tied to the “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA, movement don’t split along partisan lines, according to data-driven polling firm Morning Consult. Majorities of U.S. adults call high protein – 70% – and avoiding artificial food additives – 57% – important to their food choices, while avoiding synthetic dyes stands at 53%, the firm said Monday.
- “For a movement so identified with a Republican administration, opinions show no party split,” the report said. Avoiding synthetic food dyes has 54% support among Democrats, 52% among independents and 53% among Republicans. Other perceived MAHA priorities, including avoiding additives and seed oils, sit within about 3 percentage points across parties,the report said.
For food and beverage brands, that means exploring new formulas or ways to advertise products to meet clean label expectations is unlikely to be a political risk, Morning Consult said.
France faces worst grape harvest in 70 years: This summer’s searing heat took a major toll not only on France’s grain crops. The country’s wine production is on track for its worst harvest in around 70 years. The agriculture ministry on Monday forecast a 6% drop in output, France 24 reported. The ministry forecast France, the world’s second-largest wine producer after Italy, would produce less than 34 million hectoliters in 2026. The report said the paltry harvest, which is 17% below the 2021-25 average, reflects both shrinking vineyards and lower yields caused by drought and sumer heatwaves.
Don’t miss this week’s Pro Farmer Podcast, which takes a look at the state of the crops, fund demand and other concerns ahead of this Friday’s USDA crop production and supply-and-demand reports.