Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Hot summer, with dryness likely across western crop areas... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for elevated chances for above-normal temps over the entire U.S. through August. The precip outlook calls for increased odds of below-normal rainfall over most of the western Corn Belt and Plains during the period. There are “equal chances” for normal, above-normal and below-normal precip from eastern Iowa through most of the eastern Corn Belt. Above-normal rainfall is likely across the Southeast and East Coast through summer.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist or develop across the much of the western Corn Belt and Plains through August. Timeliness of summer rainfall will be key in these areas.
Click here to view related maps.
Crops drought footprint grows a little aside from cotton... As of May 13, the Drought Monitor showed 55% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down one percentage point from the previous week. USDA estimated D1-D4 drought conditions covered 23% of the U.S. winter wheat crop (up one point), 22% of corn area (up two points), 17% of soybeans (up two points), 38% of spring wheat (up one point) and 8% of cotton production areas (down 14 points).
Across major corn, soybean, wheat and cotton states, dryness/drought covered 61% of Iowa (no D3 or D4), 55% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 37% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 83% of Minnesota (no D3 or D4), 100% of Nebraska (13% D3, no D4), 100% of South Dakota (3% D3, no D4), 73% of North Dakota (6% D3, no D4), 82% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 70% of Colorado (5% D3, no D4), 52% of Texas (23% D3 or D4), 16% of Oklahoma (no D3 or D4), 4% of Tennessee (no D3 or D4), 43% of Wisconsin (no D3 or D4) and 27% of Michigan (no D3 or D4). No measurable dryness/drought was reported for Ohio, Kentucky or Arkansas.
Click here to view related maps.
Tour finds highest Kansas wheat yield since 2021... Wheat yield potential in Kansas was estimated at 53.0 bu. per acre based on samples from the annual Wheat Quality Council tour – the highest since 2021. That was up from the tour’s yield of 46.5 bu. last year and the five-year average (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024) of 44.3 bu. per acre.
While yield potential is strong, scouts noted variability due to some damage from drought and disease, particularly wheat streak mosaic.
Scouts guesstimated the Kansas crop at 338.5 million bushels.
In its initial estimate, USDA pegged the Kansas wheat crop at 345 million bu. on a yield of 50 bu. per acre.
EPA sends 2026 RVO proposal and 2024 cellulosic waiver to OMB... EPA submitted two major biofuel-related actions to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review: its proposed rule for Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and beyond under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), along with its final rule to partially waive the 2024 cellulosic biofuel mandate.
The conjecture (not confirmed by EPA or other sources) is that EPA would announce a biodiesel mandate of 4.65 billion gallons, at least 600 million gallons below recommendations from a coalition of oil and biofuels groups. The industry has previously requested a mandate between 5.25 billion and 5.75 billion gallons.
Perspective: 4.65 billion gallons would be a BIG jump from 3.35 billion gallons for 2025 and would be a floor... not a ceiling.
While the forward-looking RVOs draw long-term interest, the agency’s final decision regarding 2024 cellulosic requirements is also awaited. In a proposal issued December 2024, EPA suggested reducing the 2024 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement from 1.09 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) to 0.88 billion — a cut of 0.21 billion RINs. This partial waiver remained pending even after EPA extended the 2024 compliance reporting period earlier this year.
Meanwhile, The Trump administration plans to rule quickly on dozens of small U.S. refineries’ pending applications for exemptions from biofuel-blending requirements, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin told lawmakers.
There are 161 applications for exemptions from the RFS pending after the Biden administration refrained from acting on them.
NOPA soy crush exceeds expectations in April... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 190.2 million bu. of soybeans in April. While that was down 4.3 million bu. (2.2%) from March it was a record for April and topped year-ago by 20.8 million bu. (12.3%). Analysts expected crush to slow to 184.6 million bushels.
NOPA data implies the full April crush of 202 million bushels. Our crush forecast for 2024-25 is 2.425 billion bu., 5 million bu. above USDA’s.
Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of April 30 rose to 1.527 billion lbs., up 1.9% from March but down 16.6% from year-ago. Implied monthly soyoil use remains historically high, driven by biofuels demand.
SCMP: China targets U.S.-based scientists with big pay... China is actively recruiting Chinese-born scientists to return home from the United States by offering lucrative pay packages and long-term job stability, amid deep funding cuts and heightened political scrutiny under the Trump administration. This exclusive report from the South China Morning Post reveals a growing wave of interest from researchers who feel increasingly marginalized in the U.S. academic system.
The incentives come at a time when many Chinese/American scientists feel “squeezed from two directions,” according to a U.S.-based biologist who spoke on condition of anonymity. On one hand, federal support for science is evaporating — with President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2026 budget proposing a 37% cut to the National Institutes of Health and slashing the National Science Foundation budget by more than half. On the other hand, researchers of Chinese origin remain under tight scrutiny, a lingering effect of the Trump-era “China Initiative.”
European institutions are also stepping up their recruitment efforts. In Paris, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched a €500 million campaign called “Choose Europe for Science,” aimed at attracting top talent. French President Emmanuel Macron added, “If you love freedom, come and do your research here.”
According to a March 2025 Nature survey, more than 75% of U.S.-based scientists said they were considering relocating abroad — with China, Europe, and Canada topping the list.
As the U.S. tightens its scientific purse strings and political rhetoric escalates, China and its global rivals are offering both refuge and reward — sparking what could be a historic reversal of the brain drain.