Evening Report: Fertilizer crisis response

March 13, 2026

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Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said Friday the White House was looking at “every potential avenue to keep” fertilizer prices down. Rollins told reporters she was having conversations with lawmakers to seek out “additional funds for our farmers,” according to The Hill newspaper.

“With what’s happening in Iran, what that means for specifically nitrogen urea, which is one of the key components of fertilizer, our farmers are moving into planting season right now,” she told reporters. “So, the president is aware of these challenges and these issues. We are very close to having an announcement on some solutions on what that looks like.”

The Trump administration on Friday further loosened sanctions against Venezuela, allowing it to sell fertilizers and other petrochemicals to US companies. Rollins, in a post on X, said the move would bolster the supply of an important agricultural input.

“There is much more work to do, but this is a huge step that puts farm security and farmers first!,” she said.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies that normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz. New Orleans prices for urea are up 28% since the war on Iran started through Friday, according to Bloomberg Green Markets. The US imports over a third of its urea from the Middle East, according to The Fertilizer Institute.

See: Why Strait of Hormuz fertilizer shock could hurt more than 2022 spike

Skeptics questioned how much the move to ease sanctions on Venezuela would move the needle when it comes to fertilizer supply.

  • “U.S. is easing sanctions on Venezuelan fertilizer. I’m afraid it doesn’t have the impact they think it will,” said Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX in a social media post. “At best, they produced 3M (?) t/yr of urea... 250K/month...and years of Dictator rule likely means plants have suffered.”

Tariff renunciation call: Farm groups, including the National Corn Growers Association, American Soybean Association, National Cotton Council and the American Farm Bureau Federation sent a letter Friday to the chief executives of two of the nation’s largest domestic fertilizer producers calling on them to support the removal of duties placed on imported phosphate products from Morocco.

“The recent Middle East conflict has led to increases in the prices of U.S. fertilizer, regardless of actual impact to the U.S. supply,” read the letter, which was sent to Mosaic Company CEO Bruce Bodine and J.R. Simplot CEO Garrett Lofto. “We strongly urge efforts to lower and stabilize prices by renouncing support of phosphate duties incurred through antidumping and countervailing duty investigations.”

China fertilizer release: China said Friday that it would release fertilizers from national commercial reserves ahead of spring planting, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts supplies, Reuters reported.

The decision aims to ensure adequate supply during peak agricultural demand, the China Agricultural Means of Production Association said in a statement. It instructed storage firms to sell reserves to support orderly trading and stabilize prices, the report said.

  • The report quoted a Beijing-based fertilizer analyst, who said: “This year’s release is at least 15 days ⁠earlier than previous cycles. Some farmers in Henan and Shandong have been complaining about phosphate fertilizer shortages in recent days.”

‘Vicious storm’ for northern Plains, Midwest: A “vicious storm” is expected to evolve over northeastern Kansas late Saturday and move to Ontario Canada (north of Upper Michigan) by Monday afternoon, according to World Weather Inc.. The storm will develop very quickly and strong wind speeds varying from 40 to 75 mph are expected to evolve in response, the forecaster said.

  • World Weather said the greatest snow is expected from far northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota through northern Iowa and southern Minnesota to the western and northern Great Lakes region. In that region 8 to 20 inches will be common and there will be some areas in Wisconsin and upper Michigan that will receive 2-3 feet of snow.

Slower growth: The U.S. economy grew at a just 0.7% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Commerce Department said Friday, down from an earlier estimate of 1.4%. The figure reflected downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment, while imports decreased less than previously estimated.

Ethanol exports slowed: U.S. ethanol exports in January totaled 212.1 million gallons (mg), slipping 4% month-over-month amid mixed demand across key markets, the Renewable Fuels Association said. Among the highlights:

  • Canada remained the top destination with a 5% increase to 70.0 mg, with denatured fuel ethanol accounting for 90% of the total and representing two-thirds of all denatured fuel ethanol exports in January.
  • Brazil tripled its imports of U.S. ethanol to 36.4 mg, marking the largest monthly purchase in nearly six years.
  • Exports to the European Union declined 18% to a six-month low of 35.1 mg, with the Netherlands serving as the primary recipient.
  • Exports to India decreased 19% to 12.2 mg, while Colombia jumped 25% to 12.1 mg and the Philippines scaled back 29% to 11.4 mg.
  • Direct shipments to the United Kingdom rose 6% to 8.0 mg.
  • Other key markets included South Korea (7.0 mg, -20%), Vietnam (4.9 mg, up from zero for a 14-month high), and Mexico (4.1 mg, -35%).

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