Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Corn conditions improve as expected... USDA rated the corn crop as 69% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week, equal to analysts’ expectations. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 5%.
USDA reported corn planting was 93% done, in line with the five-year average. Of the top 18 production states, Indiana (86% vs. 90% average), Kentucky (80% vs. 89%), North Carolina (99% vs. 100%), Ohio (72% vs. 87%), Pennsylvania (64% vs. 77%) and Tennessee (90% vs. 95%) were behind average.
Corn emergence stood at 78%, one point ahead of average.
Initial soybean conditions slightly lower than expected... USDA initially rated the soybean crop as 67% “good” to “excellent,” one point lower than analysts expected. The crop was rated 5% “poor” to “very poor.”
Soybean planting reached 84%, four points ahead of average. Of the top 18 production states, only Indiana (81% vs. 83%), Kentucky (60% vs. 66%), Mississippi (83% vs. 91%) and Ohio (66% vs. 77%) were behind average.
Soybean emergence stood at 63%, six points ahead of average.
Spring wheat conditions rebound more than anticipated... USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent,” up five points from last week. Analysts expected a two-point increase. Still, the good/excellent rating was far behind last year’s 74% on this date.
Spring wheat planting reached 95%, five points ahead of average. Emergence stood at 73%, four points ahead of normal.
Winter wheat harvest off to average start... USDA reported winter wheat harvest was 3% complete, equal to the five-year average. Harvest stood at 25% in Texas (27% average) and 4% in Oklahoma (9%). Kansas had not yet started wheat harvest.
USDA reported 83% of the crop was headed, four points ahead of average, signaling the harvest pace is likely to remain active, weather permitting.
Cotton planting remains slightly behind normal... Cotton planting advanced 14 points over the past week to 66%, though that was still three points behind average. Planting stock at 61% in Texas (61% average) and 74% in Georgia (77%). Alabama (67% vs. 88%) and Mississippi (54% vs. 87%) remained well behind normal.
USDA reported 8% of the cotton crop was squaring, one point ahead of average.
USDA initially rated the cotton crop as 49% “good” to “excellent” and 22% “poor” to “very poor.”
Soybean crush about as expected in April... U.S. processors crushed 202.4 million bu. of soybeans during April, according to USDA, just a bit higher than the 202 million bu. analysts expected. Crush declined 4.3 million bu. (2.1%) from year-ago but increased 24.8 million bu. (14.0%) from year-ago. Through the first eight months of 2024-25, soybean crush totaled 1.641 billion bu., 5.9% ahead of the same period last year. To reach USDA’s forecast of 2.420 billion bu., crush must run 5.8% ahead of last year’s pace over the final four months of the year.
Corn-for-ethanol use lower than expected... Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 425.8 million bu. in April, down 27.1 million bu. (6.0%) from March but up 3.2 million bu. (0.8%) from last year. Through the first eight months of 2024-25, corn-for-ethanol use totaled 3.613 billion bu., up 0.6% from the same period last year. To reach USDA’s forecast of 5.500 billion bu., corn ethanol use must total 1.866 billion bu., just ahead of last year’s pace of 1.865 billion bu. during the final four months of the year.
USDA issuing aid to farmers as quickly as possible... USDA is currently in the process of issuing nearly $31 billion in total disaster and emergency relief aid to farmers and ranchers in four stages. That money was appropriated by Congress as part of the American Relief Act, which was passed in December of 2024. In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal, USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton said the next round of disaster aid payments could be coming the first full week of July.
USDA began issuing emergency livestock relief program payments last week. Appleton said that instead of holding the money and issuing it all at once, USDA decided to issue the payments in four phases, as it wanted to get assistance out to producers as quickly as possible.
“We had ECAP (Emergency Commodity Assistance Program), we now have the Emergency Livestock Relief Program, we’re going to have supplemental disaster relief and then we’re going to have another emergency livestock relief program to cover the flood losses that we saw in 2023 and 2024,” Appleton said. “So, we’re kind of doing it in stages, it should stream out all through the summer really, and so I’m hoping that that kind of can relieve some of that financial stress.”
The next round of American Relief Act disaster aid payments is the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, which is the larger amount appropriated by Congress. Appleton said details surrounding those payments are being prepared now and USDA expects to issue those payments next month.
“The timeline for that, we’re targeting to sign up farmers by the first full week in July, so maybe the week of July 7,” Appleton said. “That will be literally every crop production loss that has happened for 2023 and 2024, and that’s just additional disaster assistance that was legislated by Congress.”
Once those payments are released, USDA’s final phase of the American Relief Act will be another emergency livestock relief program, but this covers flood losses producers saw in 2023 and 2024.
Appleton says that’s been the most difficult program to outline and detail, as USDA has never administered a disaster program for livestock that covered losses due to flooding.
The first livestock disaster aid announced last week totaled $1 billion, which means another $1 billion should be dispersed through the livestock disaster payments that cover losses due to flooding.
USDA says it is fully committed to expediting remaining disaster assistance provided by the American Relief Act 2025. On May 7, it launched its 2023/2024 Supplemental Disaster Assistance public landing page where the status of USDA disaster assistance and block grant rollout timeline can be tracked.
Aussie wheat production expected to fall sharply but remain above average... Australia’s wheat production is projected to drop 10% this year to 30.6 MMT, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), though that would remain well above the 10-year average of 27.6 MMT.
Low soil moisture in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the northern wheat belt of Western Australia led some farmers to reduce planted area, while dry-sown crops now depend on June rainfall to germinate and establish, ABARES said. Conditions are significantly better in Queensland, northern New South Wales and southern parts of Western Australia.
Forecasts point to above-average winter rainfall across most cropping regions.
Barley production is set to fall 3% to 12.8 MMT this year and canola output to shrink 6% to 5.7 MMT, according to ABARES.
Forecasts signal summer weather extremes across Northern Hemisphere... Even before summer officially begins, signs are mounting that large swaths of North America, Europe and Asia will be gripped by intensifying heat waves, flooding and storms, according to climate scientists and meteorological forecasters cited by Bloomberg. “I’d expect to see further instances of extreme to record-shattering downpours and flood events in regions prone to heavy precipitation during the warm season,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA.
In the U.S., Bloomberg reports that heat domes forming across the western and central regions could trap high temperatures in place, while jet stream distortions downstream may lock in rain systems, triggering widespread flooding.
Meanwhile, Paul Pastelok of AccuWeather warned that “the bends in the jet stream may increase the threat of derechos” — long-track severe thunderstorms — across the Midwest and Northern Plains, potentially inflicting billions in damages.
In the Atlantic, warmer ocean temperatures are raising the risk of a more intense hurricane season, with Texas and the Gulf Coast particularly exposed, Bloomberg noted.
The report also highlighted severe infrastructure and agricultural stress:
- 89 million Americans across three power grids are at elevated risk of electricity shortfalls this summer, per the North American Electric Reliability Corp.
- Intensifying drought in the Corn Belt may impact corn, soybeans and wheat, and could cause Mississippi River levels to fall, disrupting barge traffic.
In Europe, persistent high-pressure systems are expected to reduce rainfall, increasing drought risks and suppressing wind energy generation — a trend that earlier in the year saw record-high solar output but low wind yields.
Bottom line according to Bloomberg: “The Northern Hemisphere’s summer hasn’t officially started, but signs are already piling up that... [it] will be pummeled by record heat and other weather extremes.”
SCMP: U.S. retail giants press Chinese suppliers to ‘eat the tariffs’... In an exclusive report by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), U.S. retail giants including Walmart, Target, Nike, Puma and Adidas are now demanding their Chinese suppliers absorb 50% to 66% of the cost of new tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. The push marks a sharp shift from earlier agreements in April, when companies like Walmart had committed to covering the full costs themselves to keep supply chains intact during the height of trade tensions.
The aggressive cost-sharing demands come as U.S. retailers face political pressure at home not to raise consumer prices, while navigating an uncertain landscape under the current 90-day U.S./China tariff truce through mid-August.
A supplier in Zhejiang province told SCMP that although Walmart had previously agreed to cover tariffs through August, “there is no room” for the company to absorb more than 30% of the cost moving forward. Meanwhile, some brands are quietly shifting operations. Puma has trimmed direct shipments from China, while Nike and Adidas have signaled that price hikes are inevitable if tariff costs continue to rise. Target CEO Brian Cornell described price increases as a “very last resort.”
Bottom Line: The next 10 weeks will be critical: if no U.S./China agreement is reached before Aug. 12, tariff rates could return to 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on U.S. goods, drastically reshaping global retail sourcing strategies.