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Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged more than 9% to end at $100.46 a barrel Thursday, its first close above the triple-digit threshold since August 2022. Crude’s rise helped lift grain and soy complex futures again, with May soybeans notching a two-year high, but also keeps upward pressure on diesel and other input costs.
It’s down to the Strait of Hormuz, which remains virtually closed. Even the announcement Wednesday of the coordinated release of over 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves in 32 countries failed to keep a lid on prices.
Global oil markets are suffering “the largest supply disruption in history” as the war in Iran drives production to the lowest level in four years, the International Energy Agency said in a report today. Gulf producers had cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels a day because the Strait of Hormuz is almost impassable to shipping, it said. The IEA expects world output to fall by 8 million b/d in March as a result. This represents a decline of more than 7 percent from the roughly 107 million b/d produced in February.
Mojtaba Khameini, Iran’s new supreme leader, vowed to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East and keep the Strait closed. The U.S. Navy will begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as “militarily possible,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the threat to the U.S.and global economy of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait spooked the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 739 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 shed 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.8%.
Fertilizer stocks soar: It isn’t just the price of fertilizer that’s soaring as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are piling into shares of U.S. fertilizer companies, betting they’ll be able to take market share away from Middle East competitors unable to move their products out of the Gulf, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The report noted that benchmark prices for natural gas – a key feedstock – has jumped 58% since the U.S.-Israeli bombardment of Iran began. U.S. gas futures are up a relatively tame 13% since then, providing an advantage to domestic producers.
CF Industries Holdings, which consumes huge volumes of natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilizers, has become one of the year’s hottest stocks, the Journal noted, rising 76% so far in 2026, while shares of Mosaic and Nutrien, other big North American fertilizer suppliers, are up 30% and 36% this year, respectively.
45Z rule reminder: Farm-state Republican lawmakers told Trump administration officials in a letter that regulations for the new 45Z biofuel tax incentive need to account for cover crops, precision fertilizer applications and other regenerative agriculture practices to ensure that farmers fully benefit from the subsidy, Agri-Pulse reported.
The Internal Revenue Service is finalizing regulations for the tax credit created by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, then modified and extended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, the report noted.. USDA is developing a separate tool calculating the carbon intensity of agricultural feedstocks.
“It is critical the final rule clearly identifies the types of on-farm conservation practices capable of generating lower-carbon feedstocks and ultimately qualifying for a premium under 45Z,” the lawmakers led by Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, say in the letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
Tractor sales down: Sales of agricultural tractors fell across most horsepower categories in February from a year earlier, while combine sales saw a modest rise in the year to date, according to figures from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. “Farmers remain focused on managing input costs while maximizing productivity,” said Curt Blades, senior vice president of industry sectors and product leadership at AEM, in a news release. “While equipment purchases tend to follow broader farm income cycles, the long-term outlook for modernizing fleets and adopting advanced technologies remains strong.”
Here’s AEM’s sales breakdown:
- Under-40 HP tractors declined 11.5% in February, with 6,014 units sold compared to 6,792 units last year.
- 40–100 HP tractors decreased 9.5%, totaling 2,738 units sold compared to 3,024 units in February 2025.
- 100+ HP tractors experienced the steepest monthly decline, falling 25.8%, with 904 units sold compared to 1,218 units last year.
- Four-wheel drive tractors were the only segment to post growth, increasing 11.3%, with 148 units sold in February.
- Combine sales in the United States declined 12.6% in February, with 159 units sold compared to 182 units last year. Year-to-date combine sales increased 15.4%, reaching 322 units compared to 279 units during the same period in 2025.
Brazil eliminates diesel tax: Brazil’s government scrapped taxes on diesel while imposing a levy on oil exports in a move on Thursday, Reuters reported, attempting to soften the blow of the recent spike in global oil prices.Surging diesel prices have emerged as a threat to Brazil’s powerful farm sector, raising costs for producers who are harvesting a record soybean crop and planting corn they cannot afford to delay, the report noted.
Egypt caps unsubsidized bread prices: Egypt set maximum prices for unsubsidized bread sold in private bakeries, Reuters reported, reviving price controls on staple food as the government seeks to limit the impact on consumers of an expected rise in inflation due to the Iran war. The move comes amid warnings of a potential global food crisis as a result of soaring fertilizer and other input costs. The report noted inflationary pressure is growing after a spike in global oil prices due to the war, which prompted Egypt to raise fuel prices.
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