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Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.
The near-term outlook:
- Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
- Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
- Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
- Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
- Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
- South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.
“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.” That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.
“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?” -source: Tyne Morgan, AgWeb.com
Ethanol exports on track for record high… U.S. ethanol is poised for a second straight year of record high exports as global demand for the corn-based fuel climbs higher, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Through the first seven months of 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol shipments to foreign buyers averaged 138,000 barrels per day, the highest January through July average in data going back to 2010, and 9% more than 2024’s annual record, according to EIA.
“We’re expecting 2 billion-plus gallons of exports,” Scott Richman, chief economist for the Renewable Fuel Association, said in an interview. “It only looks moderately higher than last year, but what has to be remembered is that 2024 was a lot higher than any prior years, so exceeding that is a good accomplishment.” The outlook for next year is also robust, with EIA predicting exports will stay near all-time highs. -source: Kim Chipman, Agri-Pulse
EV Drivers love the smell of gasoline in the morning… It may sound downright silly but a Finnish importer of Kia electric cars is handing out a petrol-scented air freshener to buyers of the new EV4. Switching to an electric vehicle takes some adjustment and some buyers may be nostalgic for what importer Astara Auto Finland calls a faint smell of oil and petrol “reminiscent of a car workshop”.
Finnish perfume maker Max Perttula says he designed the scent from a motor oil base. He has developed fragrances for other premium brands. “Of course, it’s a bit of a ‘tongue-in-cheek’ campaign,” admits Pertulla but says South Korea automaker Kia aims to add a little fun for new EV drivers. -source: Yahoo Life
StoneX lends perspective on cattle tiff… President Trump fired back at American cattle producers upset by his plan to buy beef from Argentina to help lower beef prices in the U.S. Arlan Suderman, the chief commodities analyst for StoneX, said the president’s post on Truth Social claimed credit for the high prices beef producers are experiencing.
Suderman said, “Basically, he’s attacking the cattle farmer for not lowering prices and for being upset. First of all, when it comes to Argentina, Argentina doesn’t have enough surplus beef to make much of a difference in the U.S. market. I don’t think we should be worrying too much about that, but they do have a surplus for exporting. Much of that goes to China, and China’s going to try to bid that away from us, if at all possible.”
Suderman continued, “[Trump’s] post about how cattle ranchers need to lower the price for beef, and that they’re just experiencing good prices today because of his tariffs, is pretty unfounded. While the 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian beef are contributing to the higher prices in the United States, that’s just a piece of the puzzle, and that is not the main cause. The main cause is the lower numbers and the strong demand that we have in the United States overall.”
Notable closes…
November beans closed at the highest level since September 17. November beans have closed higher in 6 of the past 7 sessions… a lack of farmer selling during harvest has limited selling.
- November beans were a dime higher at $10.44 3/4
- January beans up 12 cents to $10.62
- March beans closed at $10.75 1/4, up 12 1/4 cents
December corn futures have closed higher in 7 of the past 8 trading days and today’s rally pushed through resistance at the top of the three-week sideways trading range.
- December corn futures were a nickel higher at $4.28
- March corn up 5 ½ cents at $4.41 1/4
- May corn futures closed at $4.49 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents