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China, U.S. negotiators pause as China favors Brazil… U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that U.S. trade officials will reconvene with their Chinese counterparts within two to three months to discuss the future of bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies. His comments followed this week’s extension of a 90-day tariff truce between the two nations. Trump wrote on Truth Social that he hopes to hammer out a deal with China that will quickly quadruple its soybean orders.
Editor’s comment: With Brazilian farmers increasing production output, and China seemingly preferring Brazilian soybeans, U.S. soybeans are not the lever they once were. It is conceivable we will have to wait on Brazilian prices to rise or for supplies there to run short before China feels pressure to ‘quadruple’ their soybean imports from the United States. That being the case, negotiators may need to look for other levers to pull when dealing with China.
Corn Growers press Congress in light of crop expectations… Chesterfield, MO -- The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is intensifying its call for action from Congress and the administration after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest World Agriculture and Supply and Demand Estimates report projected a record 16.7-billion-bushel corn crop this year, further threatening the livelihood of farmers already facing record-low corn prices.
“Corn growers are already marketing their corn for extremely low corn prices, and this massive projected corn supply without market-based solutions to increasing corn demand is already causing corn prices to fall further,” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. “Because we need markets fast for this supply, we are redoubling and intensifying our call for Congress to pass pending E15 legislation that will allow for year-round consumer access to higher blends of ethanol and for the Trump administration to quickly broker deals that will open new foreign markets for corn.”
NCGA is also pushing the administration to quickly broker additional deals with other countries and finalize details on deals already announced. For example, India, Vietnam and Kenya are all strategically important markets to U.S. corn growers.
“My family survived the 1980s farm crisis,” said Hartman. “I don’t want my daughter to be talking about the 2020’s farm crisis in 40 years. The situation is dire, and new market demand is the only way we are going to dig out of this.” -source: National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) news release
USDA Report Highlights… USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports yesterday forecast Corn production at 16.7 billion bushels, with the yield at 188.8 bushels per acre and ending stocks at 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price dropped 30 cents to $3.90 a bushel. Soybean production was forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, on a yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. Ending stocks were forecast at 290 million bushels, 20 million below last month. The season-average price is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The 2025-2026 wheat outlook is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. The season-average price dropped ten cents to $5.30.
Mexico to protect tomato production… Mexico has set minimum export prices for its fresh tomatoes to protect its domestic production and ensure internal supply after a bilateral agreement with the U.S. expired. Washington withdrew from a 2019 deal between the two countries, which regulated Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. On July 14, the Trump administration announced a duty of about 17 percent on fresh tomato imports from Mexico.
Down to the centimeter… A Dutch Company has launched a service for extra-accurate GPS intended for drone pilots, farmers, and others. With the new technology, users can correct their GPS positions down to the centimeter. Real-time correction signals are sent to the user’s GPS via a global network of base stations. This correction is essential for applications in agriculture, land surveying, and drone navigation, among other tasks.
Notable closes:
Soybean futures extended this week’s three-day rally – November beans opened lower and near session lows and rallied to finally close the July 7 downside price gap. That stopped the advance, but Novie beans still posted a high-range close and the highest close since July 3.
- September beans were 11 1/4 cents higher at $10.24
- November beans up 11 1/2 cents to $10.44 1/4
- January beans closed at $10.62 3/4 up 12 cents
December corn futures opened slightly lower and near session lows and ended the day near session highs. The contract posted an inside trading day as the market digests the much-bigger-than-expected corn crop estimate from USDA.
- September corn futures were 2 ½ cents higher at $3.74
- December corn up 2 ¾ cents to $3.97 1/4
- March corn futures closed at $4.15, up 2 3/4 cents