Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.19 3/4, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw chart consolidation. Gains in the U.S. dollar index this week are a bearish outside-market element for the grains. Commercial hedge selling as the corn harvest is in full swing is also limiting buying interest in corn.
Corn planting in Argentina was estimated to be 19.8% complete as of last week, which represents an advance of 7.4% on the week. Wet conditions continue to delay progress in west-central, central and northeastern Buenos Aires.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast includes less rain for Oct. 14-17 than what was advertised Monday “and most of the rain during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress from being made.” Moderate to locally heavy rain will impact a large part of the Ohio River Basin today and fieldwork will be interrupted, but the soil is dry enough to absorb the rain without becoming saturated or excessively muddy and delays to farming activity should be temporary. Temperatures in the central U.S. the next week will be warmer to much warmer than normal most often, with pockets of colder than usual temperatures in the northwest today and again early next week. Some frost and light freezes will occur Wednesday from eastern North Dakota to Wisconsin with some frost and a few light freezes in the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.24 1/2 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 4 1/4 cents to $10.22, near mid-range. December soybean meal lost 20 cents to $276.90, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil rose 66 points to 51.04 cents, near the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw some technical buying and short covering featured today. Gains were limited by a higher U.S. dollar index this week. Commercial hedge pressure as the U.S. soybean harvest is in high gear is limiting aggressive speculator buyer interest in futures. Soybean bulls are more upbeat this week as the meal futures market has been performing better.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvest weather will continue good this week, but rain frequency next week will somewhat slow field progress. South America weather “will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center-west and center-south Brazil and some of that will evolve next week,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.28 3/4 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.14 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $282.00 and then at $285.00. First support is seen at $275.00 and then at $272.20.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.50 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.90 cents and then at last week’s low of 49.20 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 6 cents to $5.06 3/4, near the session low. December HRW lost 3 1/2 cents to $4.92, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.53. All three wheat classes carved new contract low closes.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to see technical selling pressure from the speculators amid firmly bearish technical charts. A higher U.S. dollar index this week is a bearish outside market for wheat futures. Weaker corn prices today also weighed on wheat.
Bangladesh has approved the purchase of about 220,000 MT of U.S. wheat under a government-to-government deal aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington after import tariffs were imposed.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rain shower activity in the next seven days will be mostly light with little impact on topsoil moisture. A more meaningful rain event remains possible in the Oct. 14-16 timeframe, but this will be largely dependent on the tropics and a possible disturbance coming into the region from the southwest. “There is conflicting computer model data on how cold temperatures become in the second week of the outlook. Confidence is high in a cooling trend occurring, which will be good for reducing evaporation rates. However, confidence is lower for how significant the cooling is and the potential for frosts and freezes. Nebraska, Colorado, and northwestern Kansas may have the highest potential for at least some frost,” said the forecaster. In the Northern Plains, shower activity in the first week of the outlook should be light-enough for fieldwork and harvest progress to continue without much issue. The rain potential is greatest Saturday through Sunday. There is a small potential for some snow in northwestern production areas from this system. Temperatures will begin to trend colder after Saturday, especially in the western half of the region, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.08 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 68 points to 64.46 cents, near the daily low and hit a six-month low. Prices also closed at a contract low close today.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market was hit today by technical selling pressure from the speculators amid solidly bearish technical charts. A higher U.S. dollar index and lower U.S. stock indexes were also bearish “outside-market” factors for the cotton futures market today.
World Weather Inc. today said dry and favorable conditions for U.S. cotton maturation and harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks, with infrequent rain in each region. Portions of western Texas will receive rain today, with much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma seeing rain Sunday into next Tuesday that should result in mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork. Much of the region from northwestern parts of West Texas into the central and eastern Panhandle will receive up to 0.65” of rain and locally more today. Much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.60” of rain and locally more Sunday into next Tuesday. U.S. Delta and southeastern crops will experience a mix of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days slowing fieldwork infrequently. The precipitation is not likely to have much impact on fiber quality. Most of the southwestern U.S. will experience good weather for maturation and harvesting in the coming week, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the April low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 65.56 cents. First support is seen at 64.24 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.