Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $4.38 3/4, near the session high after hitting an eight-month low early today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw decent short covering and perceived bargain buying today, following recent selling pressure. Bull spreading was also featured in corn, as the nearby July contract gained on the December contract. A languishing U.S. dollar index at lower price levels also is working in favor of the corn market bulls. Nymex crude oil futures prices today hit a nine-week high, which was also friendly for the corn market.
U.S. corn-growing weather still leans price-bearish, however. World Weather Inc. today said ”Timely rain either has fallen or will soon fall in key U.S. crop areas, supporting normal crop development.” Meantime, corn regions in southern portions of center-south Brazil areas will receive additional rain over the coming week “that will further bolster soil moisture for late-planted Safrinha corn, resulting in higher yields.” Center-west crop areas, however, will not see much moisture and crop stress is expected to increase. Argentina will see drier weather for a while, supporting good or improving harvest conditions. Portions of eastern Argentina will get a little rain late this week and again sometime next week slowing summer crop harvesting briefly, said World Weather. South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production forecast 1 MMT, to 130 MMT. Cordonnier kept his Argentine corn production estimate at 50 MMT.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 71% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 3.3 points, to 378.2.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.40 and then at this week’s high of $4.45 3/4. First support is seen at $4.33 and then at today’s low of $4.29 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 1 3/4 cents to $10.57 3/4, nearer the session low, while July meal rose 40 cents to $295.90 to forge a high-range close. July soyoil rose 41 points to 47.79 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans resumed the recent price strength, though technical resistance, improving U.S. crop conditions and some apprehension around trade talks with China crimped upside efforts.
Trade talks with China have sent a tone of optimism across the marketplace, though traders remain cautious as talks have whipsawed back and forth over the past couple of months. Today marked the second day of high-level trade talks with the country in London. Both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted the talks were progressing well.
Meanwhile, U.S. crop conditions continue to improve with USDA pegging the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent as of Sunday,” up one point from last week, while 90% of the crop was estimated to be planted. On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 1.5 points to 365.4 but continues to trail year-ago for the same period. Click here for details.
Weather across the U.S. should continue to prove mostly favorable for crops, with drier areas from eastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska into central and southern Minnesota set to benefit from moderate to heavy rains this week, while the remainder of the Midwest is expected to receive rain over the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: July soybeans edged to a two-week high though resistance at $10.60 1/2 continued to crimp buyer interest and ultimately forced a low-range close. Bulls and bears continue to compete on a level playing field, technically, with bulls focused on holding a close above the May high of $10.82, while bears look towards breaching support at $10.00. Initial resistance stands at $10.60 1/2, $10.65 1/4 and $10.68 3/4, while support is layered at the 20-, 40-, 100-, 10- and 200-day moving averages which range from $10.54 1/2 to $10.47 1/2.
July meal futures continue to consolidate in sideways trade, mostly between support at $294.00 and resistance at the 10-day moving average, trading at $302.10. Bears will look to secure a close below the April low of $289.70, while bulls look to breach psychological resistance at $300.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower at $5.34 1/2. July HRW futures sunk 10 1/4 cents to $5.27 1/4, near session lows. July spring wheat futures fell 9 1/4 cents to $6.13 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures posted a technical breakdown today as the uptrend from the mid-May low stalled out. Improving condition rating for the U.S. wheat crops helped spur selling efforts today. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 53% “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor,” up three points from a week ago and eight points up from the initial rating a couple weeks ago. On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 10.7 points to 356.0, fueled by a 9.9-point increase in top producer North Dakota. USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 54% “good” to “excellent,” up two points from last week, and 4% harvested, up just a point from a week ago. Heavy rainfall limited harvest efforts in the southern Plains, yet conditions ticked higher for the winter wheat crop despite portions of Oklahoma and Kansas already having been saturated from too much rain over the past month.
Wet fields in Oklahoma and south-central Kansas are expected to remain a concern over the next week. Additional rainfall is expected this week, further saturating the area, says World Weather Inc. If conditions do dry up, subsoil moisture is more than enough to continue to support crop development.
Russia is likely to harvest “at least 135 MMT” of grain this year, up 5 MMT from 2024, Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev as saying. The estimate includes the expected harvest from Russia-controlled regions of Ukraine, which provided about 4% of the country’s overall grain harvest in 2024. Reports that the world’s largest producer and exporter of wheat is likely to see a bump in production weighed on wheat futures today as well.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures saw persistent selling overnight but very little followthrough selling during today’s session. Still, near-term uptrends have been negated. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above $5.34 support tomorrow, which is reinforced by support at $5.28 1/2. Resistance stands at $5.40 then $5.45 1/2, while strength above that mark eyes resistance at the psychological $5.50 mark.
July HRW futures saw a technical breakdown today, rendering the near-term advantage to the bears. Support stems from $5.25, $5.23 then $5.16 on followthrough selling. Bulls are seeking to retake resistance at $5.35 3/4 then the 40-day moving average at $5.42 1/2 on resurgent strength.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 57 points to 65.42 cents, closing below the 20- and 10-day moving averages.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures retreated following three consecutive days of modest gains as U.S. dollar strength crimped support from firmer equities. Meanwhile, the marketplace continues to anticipate the conclusion of trade talks with China, which entered the second day of negotiations today in London. Cautious optimism has lingered as traders remain hesitant amid recent volatility between the two countries.
Following the close on Monday, USDA reported the cotton crop was 49% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from last week, though there was a one-point increase in the top category. The “poor” to “very poor” rating declined one point to 21%. Planting efforts were reported to be 76% complete, four-points behind average, while 12% was squaring. Planting efforts in Mississippi continue to lag by the widest margin (25 points) compared to the five-year average, followed by Alabama (12), Tennessee (8), Arkansas (5), Texas (2) and Georgia (2).
The Delta will likely continue to face planting delays amid forecasts of more rain over the next ten days, which will fall on already-saturated soils.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures ended the session below the 20- and 10-day moving averages of 65.59 cents and 65.46 cents, with bears looking toward the April low of 62.05 cents, while bulls look toward the April high of 69.75 cents. However, initial support lies at 65.20 cents, and 64.98 cents, while resistance stands at the 10-, 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered from 65.46 cents to 67.34 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.