Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $4.55 1/2, near mid-range and hit a five-week low.
Fundamental analysis: July corn futures market saw mild short covering and bull spreading today and traded on both sides of unchanged. The near-term technical posture for corn has turned more bearish, which is inviting some chart-based bears to participate on the short side. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace today also limited buying interest in corn. The U.S. stock indexes sold off near midday when President Trump said at the Oval Office that he has not had discussions with Chinese officials regarding trade. Friendly outside markets for corn that included solidly higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index also supported some buying interest in corn futures.
USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. corn plantings advanced to 40% complete as of May 4, up 16 points on the week and one point ahead of the five-year average.
Weather conditions continue to lean price-bearish for the corn market. World Weather Inc. today said conditions in Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. “should be largely beneficial and supportive of crop development and fieldwork.” Drying in Brazil is normal at this time of year in center-south and center-west, although late season Safrinha crops will need more moisture late this month and in early June to ensure the best yields, said the forecaster. Wetter-biased conditions returning to the Delta and Tennessee River Basin could induce some new flooding. Drying in the northwestern Corn Belt will be ideal for spring planting, “although the need for rain will increase greatly by the second half of this month,” said World Weather. Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 1 MMT, to 126 MMT, while maintaining a higher bias. He left his Argentine corn crop forecast at 49 MMT, with a neutral-to-higher bias.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.70 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.50 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at $4.50 1/2 and then at $4.45.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 4 1/4 cents to $10.41 1/4, while July soymeal fell $2.50 to $293.00. Both notched low-range closes. July soyoil closed 38 points lower at 48.35 cents, but ended well off the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans faced followthrough selling amid technical pressure and looming trade unknowns. A weaker U.S. dollar likely limited seller interest, though traders continue to closely monitor negotiations with China, Japan, the European Union and India. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, expressed optimism that “substantial progress” in U.S./China trade negotiations could be achieved in the coming weeks. However, the overall status of talks remains uncertain, with public statements from both sides highlighting a lack of formal engagement and continued strategic posturing.
Meanwhile, it was reported that the U.S. denied Japan’s push for full exemption from both “reciprocal” and country-specific tariffs according to Kyodo. In recent talks, U.S. officials informed Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa that only a reduction—not an elimination—of the 14% Japan-specific tariff on certain goods (currently suspended through early July) is under consideration. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins plans to visit Japan, India and Vietnam in the coming weeks to discuss Trump’s tariffs, Kyodo. noted.
The EU has also reiterated that the bloc will not be pressured into an unfair trade deal with the U.S., as other trading partners were keen to accelerate trade talks. However, the bloc’s trade chief Maros Sefcovic is engaging with the Trump administration and will present proposals this week aimed at lowering trade barriers.
USDA reported soybean plantings had advanced to 30% complete as of May 4, up 12 points on the week and seven points ahead of the five-year average.
Technical analysis: July soybeans faced pressure from the 20-, 200- and 10-day moving averages, layered from $10.45 3/4 to $10.51 3/4, as bulls lose their grip on the near-term technical advantage. Meanwhile, bears will work towards securing a close below $10.00, though support is layered at $10.36 1/2 and then at $10.25. A close above the April high of $10.67 1/2 is required for the bull camp, with resistance layered at the 20-, 200- and 10-day moving averages, then at $10.57.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.36 and closed nearer session highs. July HRW futures climbed 5 1/4 cents to $5.38. July spring wheat futures rose a penny to $6.10 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat saw corrective buying today amid consolidation following last week’s contract lows. Prices continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart and have faced selling pressure alongside corn over the past couple of weeks. Wheat was supported by reports out of China stating the Henan province has issued a risk warning as hot, dry winds threaten their wheat crop. China historically does not import or export a lot of wheat, but if there are crop issues, they could increase their wheat imports amid a relatively competitive world market. Meanwhile, the Russian crop is looking better than expected, causing Russia’s IKAR agriculture consultancy to raise their 2025 wheat production forecast to 83.8 MMT, up from 82.5 MMT previously. USDA is well below that mark at 81.6 MMT.
Winter wheat conditions have quickly improved this spring as both the HRW and SRW crops have seen an increase in precipitation. USDA rated the winter wheat crop 51% “good” to “excellent” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 2 points to 327.0, despite a 1.3-point decline in top producer Kansas. The SRW crop improved 2.1 points to 369.3, driven by a 1.9-point increase in top producer Illinois. The HRW crop is rated 9.5 points above year-ago, while the SRW crop is 23.4 points below last year at this time. Rain is expected in HRW acres through mid-week, causing some concerns for disease in Oklahoma, though a drier period of weather is expected to move into the Plains should limit any negative effect, says World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures rose on profit-taking today, though bears maintain full control of the technical advantage. Bulls failed to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $5.37 3/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.43 3/4. Support comes in at $5.31 1/4 then the psychological $5.25 mark on a reversal lower, though bears are ultimately targeting the contract low of $5.23 1/4.
July HRW futures posted modest gains today on corrective strength, though bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Bulls are looking to close prices above resistance at $5.41 1/4 on strength, which is backed by resistance at the psychological $5.50 mark. Support comes in at $5.30 1/4 then the contract low of $5.25 on resurgent selling pressure.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 59 points to 67.83 cents, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures declined modestly amid technical resistance and fading equities, though U.S. dollar weakness curbed earnest selling interest. The marketplace will likely remain generally subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, although no changes are expected in monetary policy at this week’s FOMC meeting, which began this morning.
Meanwhile, trade uncertainties are seemingly intensifying, which has increased risk-off notions across the marketplace. Traders continue to seek confirmation of reported trade deals.
USDA reported cotton plantings had advanced to 21% complete, up 6 points on the week and one point ahead of the five-year average. Texas was estimated to be three points ahead of normal, while Georgia was two points behind average. Planting efforts should continue to advance swiftly in Texas, while the Delta may be setback by returning rains. World Weather Inc. reports the southeastern corner of the U.S. will see some of the best planting weather along with some areas in California and the southwestern desert region, although rain is needed in Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama.
Technical analysis: July cotton was limited by the 100-day moving average of 68.50 cents, though support at the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from 67.71 cents to 67.19 cents limited heftier seller interest. Bulls will continue to focus on securing a close above the April high of 69.75 cents, which is backed by psychological resistance at 70.00 cents. Meanwhile, additional support below the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages serve at 65.00 cents and the April 4 low of 62.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.