GRAIN CALLS
Corn: unchanged to a penny firmer.
Soybeans: unchanged to a penny lower.
Wheat: 1 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans traded narrowly overnight, while SRW wheat forged fresh lows amid persistent technical selling. Followthrough selling in soyoil futures may be limited amid support from the 100-day moving average and technically oversold conditions. A weaker U.S. dollar should also support commodities along with firmer crude oil futures.
Scouts on the second day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 193.82 bu. per acre in Indiana, up from 187.54 bu. last year and from the three-year average of 182.09 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’ x 3’ square averaged 1,376.59, up from 1,409.02 last year and the three-year average of 1,294.98. In Nebraska, samples yielded an average corn yield of 179.50 bu. per acre, up from 173.25 bu. in 2024 and up from the three-year average of 166.33 bu. per acre. Soybeans in a 3’ x 3’ square averaged 1,348.31, up from 1,172.48 in 2024 and the three-year average of 1,132.07.
Today, scouts on the western leg of the Crop Tour will sample fields in western Iowa, while scouts on the eastern leg will sample western Illinois and eastern Iowa.
The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.-China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs “are shutting American farmers out of their largest export market going into the 2025 soybean harvest.” In a letter sent Tuesday to the White House, the ASA called for the removal of Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans and commitments for future purchases. The industry group also released a white paper outlining the financial consequences of losing long-term market share in China. “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky, said in the letter. “Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress. Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer.” China has historically imported more than 60% of the world’s soybean supplies, with the U.S. once serving as its top source. But retaliatory tariffs now make U.S. soybeans 20% more expensive than South American supplies, and China has turned to Brazil, which has expanded production to meet demand, said the ASA.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a television interview Tuesday the U.S. is satisfied with the current tariff set up with China. Bessent said “we’re very happy” with the situation with China and “the status quo is working pretty well.” The Trump administration has dialed down its confrontational tone with China recently in order to get a summit with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, and to get a trade deal. “China is the biggest revenue line in the tariff income, so if it’s not broke, don’t fix it,” Bessent said in the interview. “We have had very good talks with China. I imagine we’ll be seeing them again before November,” he said.
Bunge Global SA diverted a cargo ship of Argentine soybean meal bound for China to Southeast Asia due to concerns it might fail to meet Chinese quality specifications, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg. The seller opted to send China a separate cargo from Argentina at a later date, said the people, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to talk to media. “The rerouting of the shipment highlights the caution surrounding the new tie-up between China and Argentina as the Asian country seeks to secure new sources of a key animal feed ingredient due to a trade war with the U.S.,” said Bloomberg.
The U.S. government proposed a major increase in biofuels mandates earlier this year. Now the Trump administration is set to issue a second policy decision that could again shake up the renewable fuels market, according to a Bloomberg report. “The Environmental Protection Agency could rule as soon as this week on dozens of pending petitions from small oil refineries seeking exemptions from ethanol- and biodiesel-blending obligations from recent years, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named before a public announcement.” The decision, expected to include some waiver approvals, was foreshadowed in court filings Tuesday. In status updates filed with a federal appeals court, the U.S. Justice Department said the EPA “has now developed a new approach for reviewing small refinery exemptions and that EPA’s current intention is to issue decisions on the small refinery exemptions before it,” said Bloomberg.
CORN: December futures continue to consolidate mostly between the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.06 3/4 and $40.2 1/2, with broader resistance/support stemming from the July 18 high of $4.30 1/4 and the Aug. 12 low of $3.92.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans are trading narrowly within Tuesday’s lower range, with resistance layered at $10.36 3/4 and $10.43, while support lies at the 100-, 200-, 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, trading from $10.26 1/4 to $10.12 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat futures ended the overnight session well off the new contract low, though resistance continues to stem from the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $5.28 1/2 and $5.36 ½, while support is layered at $5.18 3/4, $5.16 1/2 and $5.13 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Firmer.
HOGS: Sideways/firmer.
CATTLE: Recent price action suggests cattle are poised to firm, with no technical clues that a market top has been forged in fats and feeders. Feeder futures scored new record highs on Tuesday. Wholesale values have risen sharply this week amid strong retailer demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday. On Tuesday, Choice beef rose $2.96 to $407.20, while Select rose $2.62 to $379.76.
HOGS: Lean hog futures have consolidated in a sideways range as cash and wholesale fundamentals have faded. Though strong gains across cattle futures continue to lend positive for pork. The CME lean hog index is down 22 cents to $109.58 as of Aug. 15. The pork cutout value slid $3.95 on Tuesday to $112.41 amid declines in all cuts aside from primal ribs and butts.