Good morning!
Grain prices narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 3/4 cents, November soybeans were steady and December winter wheat futures were 3/4 cent higher to 2 1/4 cents lower after December SRW and HRW hit new contract lows overnight. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour in progress and showing bountiful corn and soybean yield potentials is limiting buying interest in the grain futures markets this week. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $63.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.32 percent.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour, day two: Indiana, Nebraska see variable crops due to weather, disease… Pro Farmer crop scouts on Tuesday measured the Indiana average corn yield potential at 193.82 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3' x 3' square averaged 1376.59. In Nebraska, scouts measured average corn yield potential of 179.50 bu. per acre. Pod counts in a 3' x 3' square averaged 1348.31. The Nebraska and Indiana corn crops this year were more than 10 bu. above the three-year Tour averages, and both are more than 3% higher than last year’s Tour numbers. The western leg this year continues to show more consistency in yield potential than the eastern leg. It appears more-than- adequate moisture is pulling up dryland yields in Nebraska, while wet spots caused unevenness in Indiana. While Indiana measured lower kernels around and grain length, its higher ear count added up to push it beyond Nebraska’s projected corn yield. The in-field survey work in both states also led to above average soybean ratings. Nebraska pod counts in 2025 beat the previous record from 2010.Both lead scouts from the two tour legs say the biggest takeaway from Tuesday’s work is disease. Southern rust in corn has “blown up,” and disease pressure in soybeans has the lead scouts questioning how the soybean crop will finish. Doug Miller, Iowa farmer and eastern leg scout, said day two brought higher-yielding samples as they moved west. “The last couple stops, this last field we were in is the greenest I’ve seen the corn since we’ve been on it. Indiana’s going to have a good crop. Conditions to me look ideal here right now,” Miller said. Look for more daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released this Friday at 1:30 p.m. CDT.
American Soybean Association urges Trump to prioritize soybeans in China trade talks… The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.-China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs “are shutting American farmers out of their largest export market going into the 2025 soybean harvest.” In a letter sent Tuesday to the White House, the ASA called for the removal of Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans and commitments for future purchases. The industry group also released a white paper outlining the financial consequences of losing long-term market share in China. “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky, said in the letter. “Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress. Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer.” China has historically imported more than 60% of the world’s soybean supplies, with the U.S. once serving as its top source. But retaliatory tariffs now make U.S. soybeans 20% more expensive than South American supplies, and China has turned to Brazil, which has expanded production to meet demand, said the ASA.
U.S. says present China tariff situation working pretty well… U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a television interview Tuesday the U.S. is satisfied with the current tariff set up with China. Bessent said “we’re very happy” with the situation with China and “the status quo is working pretty well.” The Trump administration has dialed down its confrontational tone with China recently in order to get a summit with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, and to get a trade deal. “China is the biggest revenue line in the tariff income, so if it’s not broke, don’t fix it,” Bessent said in the interview. “We have had very good talks with China. I imagine we’ll be seeing them again before November,” he said.
Bunge diverts ship with Argentine soybean meal bound for China… Bunge Global SA diverted a cargo ship of Argentine soybean meal bound for China to Southeast Asia due to concerns it might fail to meet Chinese quality specifications, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg. The seller opted to send China a separate cargo from Argentina at a later date, said the people, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to talk to media. “The rerouting of the shipment highlights the caution surrounding the new tie-up between China and Argentina as the Asian country seeks to secure new sources of a key animal feed ingredient due to a trade war with the U.S.,” said Bloomberg.
New biofuels ruling may be coming soon… The U.S. government proposed a major increase in biofuels mandates earlier this year. Now the Trump administration is set to issue a second policy decision that could again shake up the renewable fuels market, according to a Bloomberg report. “The Environmental Protection Agency could rule as soon as this week on dozens of pending petitions from small oil refineries seeking exemptions from ethanol- and biodiesel-blending obligations from recent years, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named before a public announcement.” The decision, expected to include some waiver approvals, was foreshadowed in court filings Tuesday. In status updates filed with a federal appeals court, the U.S. Justice Department said the EPA “has now developed a new approach for reviewing small refinery exemptions and that EPA’s current intention is to issue decisions on the small refinery exemptions before it,” said Bloomberg.
India still buying Russian crude oil… India’s state-run refiners have returned to buying Russian crude oil after a brief pause, despite facing higher tariffs and criticism from Trump administration officials. Bloomberg reports processors, including Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp., bought cargoes of Russian Urals for loading in September and October, according to traders familiar with the matter. The discount for Urals has deepened to $2.50 a barrel to Dated Brent, which has likely provided added incentive for India’s oil refiners to return to buying the grade, traders said.
Fed’s FOMC minutes out this afternoon… This afternoon’s minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be parsed by the marketplace for clues on the near-term trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. Stock and financial markets have been quieter this week, ahead of the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium that gets into full swing Thursday and is hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday morning and is expected to update the Fed’s monetary policy framework. Powell’s speech could give the marketplace a new perspective on how much FOMC support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.
Malaysian palm oil futures see price pressure… Malaysian palm oil futures were below MYR 4,500 per MT Wednesday, falling for the second session and pulling back from their highest level in 5-1/2 months. The drop was driven by profit-taking and weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and CBOT exchanges, while caution prevailed ahead of export estimates for August 1–20 from cargo surveyors. Still, losses were capped by ideas of festive-led demand from top buyer India and policy support in China.
Live and feeder cattle futures bulls continue to press forward… There are no early, strong fundamental or technical clues that market tops are close at hand in live and feeder cattle futures markets. Feeder cattle futures set another record high Tuesday. Boxed beef prices have also been strong, suggesting good demand from retailers ahead of the Labor Day holiday in early September. There has been no significant cash cattle trading yet this week. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $242.01, the same as the week prior. The latest CME feeder cattle index price is $342.17 as of Aug.15.
Lean hog futures market pausing so far this week… Buying interest in lean hog futures has been squelched this week by a mild deterioration in cash hog and pork market fundamentals. However, selling interest has been limited amid recent gains posted in the cattle futures markets. The hog futures traders will continue to look to the cattle futures markets for daily price direction. The latest CME lean hog index is down 22 cents to $109.58 as of Aug. 15. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $110.25.
Today’s reports—Wednesday
--12:00 pm Rice Stocks
--2:00 pm Broiler Hatchery