Corn
Price action: July corn fell 11 3/4 cents to $4.55 3/4, near the daily low, hit a three-week low and for the week were down 16 1/2 cents..
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw bullish enthusiasm at midweek, only two see the last two trading sessions of the week humble the bulls, including the speculators that had recently climbed aboard the bullish train. Weak long liquidation and profit taking from the specs were featured Thursday and today. Traders tend to overdo it on the upside, as witnessed earlier this week, but also overdo it on the downside, as seen the past two days. We don’t look for much more downside price potential in the corn futures market. Heading into this week’s U.S.-China summit meeting, Grain market bulls were very upbeat about the prospects of more Chinese purchases of U.S. grain. However, they got “wrong-footed” when no concrete details on Chinese purchase of U.S. ag products came out of the meeting. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said outside of rain events Saturday into Tuesday and May 22-24, the Midwest will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks and planting should advance well while soil moisture is favorable for summer crop germination, establishment, and development. Each round of rain will be important from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is marginal to short. Much of the Midwest will dry down overall Wednesday into May 29 and the drier areas mentioned above will need rain again soon while timely rain in the last days of the month would be beneficial for newly planted crops across the remainder of the Midwest as well. Another round of frost will occur in the far northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into Thursday with frost in a larger part of the northwestern Corn Belt Wednesday when some far northwestern locations see light freezes. Some new crops should be emerged by next week and vulnerable to damage if temperatures become colder than expected.
90-day outlook: The global supply and demand balance sheet for corn still leans price-friendly. This week’s May WASDE report saw USDA make few changes to the old-crop corn numbers, though the 100-million-bushel cut to new-crop feed and residual use and an additional 150-million-bushel slash to exports were noteworthy changes. These changes suggest a potential decline in U.S. corn exports due to a smaller crop and tighter balance sheet. On the global level, ending stocks are projected to tighten to the lowest level since 2013-14. Don’t be surprised to see some degree of a weather market scare in pop up rapidly in corn in the coming couple months. More years than not, one occurs. They develop quickly and can then fizzle out just as fast.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 15 1/2 cents to $11.77, nearer the daily low, hit a three-week low and for the week were down 31 cents. July soybean meal rose $1.80 to $334.80, near mid-range, hit a six-month high and for the week up $14.60. July bean oil gained 22 points to 73.88 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week down 44 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market was hammered late this week as overly optimistic bulls were hoping the Trump-Xi summit meeting this week would produce better results with specifics on fresh China purchases of U.S. beans. While President Trump and other administration officials did signal China would buy “billions” of dollars worth of U.S. ag products, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Thursday said the U.S. and China already made a deal on China buying U.S. soybeans. The bright spot this week is that the soybean meal futures market came back to life, with July meal hitting a five-month high today. That suggests the downside is limited in soybeans—and that bean futures prices at present levels are probably overdone on the downside.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 155,000 MT of U.S. soybean meal to Italy during 2025-26.
Today’s NOPA soybean crush report for April fell short of most trade estimates as the daily processing pace dropped to the lowest level since September. NOPA members crushed 211.856 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 6.3% from the 226.161 million bushels crushed in March but up 11.4% from April 2025.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said soybean planting in the U.S. should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture to end drought. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork.
90-day outlook: It’s a long, El Nino growing season for the U.S. soybean crop. This week’s USDA monthly supply and demand report that showed a tighter-than-expected new-crop balance sheet, where crush demand was increased by 120 million bu. from the current marketing year and exports increased 100 million bu. at 1.63 billion bu. While a likely increase in biofuel demand is likely, this week’s U.S.-China summit meeting stirs questions around the U.S. soybean export figure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 22 1/4 cents to $6.35 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 16 3/4 cents. July HRW wheat lost 17 1/4 cents to $6.88, nearer the daily low and for the week up 12 1/4 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 17 1/4 cents to $7.05 ¾, but gained 6 3/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation the past two days. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in July SRW and HRW futures suggests there could be some more follow-through selling on Monday. However, there are still bullish fundamentals in the wheat market that are likely to come back to the fore. The final estimate from the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour put the average yield for the Kansas crop at 38.9 bushels per acre. That’s well below last year’s forecast of 53 bushels per acre. Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country net drying is expected through the next seven days in west-central and southwestern production areas. With the combination of hot weather this week, drought will worsen in these areas. Rainfall will be greater though in eastern and northern parts of the region. Some of the worst ongoing drought is in Nebraska and the upcoming rainfall will be very important but will leave a need for much more. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be involved, too. A cooling trend is expected starting Monday. Frost or a light freeze could occur in northwestern production areas on Tuesday morning. In the U.S. Northern Plains, a strong storm system is expected to impact the region with beneficial rainfall late Saturday into early next Tuesday. This should be generally good for crops, though significant cooling in the backside of this system will lead to some set-back for how much the soil is warming.
90-day outlook: USDA’s monthly supply and demand report this week confirmed tightening domestic supplies amid massive abandonment in the Southern Plains. Recent crop tours in Oklahoma and Kansas have validated USDA’s data. Hard red spring wheat futures this week notched a contract high following USDA’s monthly report. All wheat production in the U.S. is expected to decline sharply, which could elevate volatility in the event of potential challenges during the growing seasons.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 333 points to 80.61 cents, nearer the session low, hit a two-week low and for the week down 412 points.
5-day outlook: It appears the cotton market bulls have run out of gas as the bottom has fallen out of the cotton futures market the past two trading sessions, including prices trading down the daily limit for a period of time today. Sharp losses in the grain futures markets this week have spilled over into strong selling pressure in cotton futures. Like grain traders, the cotton market bulls were also disappointed by the lack of concrete results regarding any new China purchases of U.S. ag products at this week’s Trump-Xi summit meeting. The late-week downdraft in cotton futures did break the price uptrend on the daily bar chart, which is one technical clue that the market has put in at least a near-term price top.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in place over the U.S. Delta and southeastern states, where some rain is expected during the next couple of weeks, although the southeastern states will be dry in this first week of the outlook. Parts of south Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will have opportunities for rain during the coming two weeks and that will improve crop conditions in dryland areas, although some of the moisture comes too late after weeks of little to now rain. West Texas rainfall is expected to be minimal for another week and then showers and thunderstorms may start to pop up periodically. Rain was noted in a few areas during the weekend, but not in the dryland areas of the southwest. There is still a big need for a general soaking rain and that is not likely to occur for a while. Meantime, cotton harvesting in Australia is winding down. Showers in the next couple of weeks should not present many problems since the bulk of harvesting is already complete. Argentina’s cotton region has been drying down recently after too much rain fell earlier this season. Harvest progress is increasing and should continue to improve. Xinjiang, China is expecting a cooler bias in temperatures this week and some showers will impact the northeast into Tuesday. It may be a while before warm weather returns. Low temperatures may slip near frost levels in the far northeast later this week. India’s early season crop and that of Pakistan has likely been planted in a favorable environment this year.
90-day outlook: Elevated crude oil prices will likely persist in the coming months, while the U.S. stock indexes this week hit new record highs. These elements should keep a price floor under the cotton market. An improved longer-term technical posture and waning global cotton production are likely to continue to provide support for cotton futures in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.