Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.32, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more buying interest from speculators amid improved risk appetite in the general marketplace early this week on ideas the U.S. government may reopen as soon as later this week. That would mean a resumption sooner of the flow of USDA economic data. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today were price-friendly for the corn futures market. Trading in the grain futures may be more subdued until Friday’s USDA supply and demand report, which is the first major USDA data point in over a month.
A Reuters poll showed analysts estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 92% complete, on average, as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west rainfall will be erratic, leaving subsoil moisture low in pockets. Dryness will also be a concern for the northeastern production areas for a while. Any late-season U.S. corn harvesting should advance favorably over the next week due to mostly dry conditions.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures appears to have rolled over. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.37. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.18. First resistance is seen at $4.37 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $11.27 1/4, nearer the session high. December soybean meal fell $3.10 to $316.90, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil rose 52 points to 51.10 cents, near the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market today saw a pause from recent gains. Spreaders today were featured buying bean oil and selling meal futures. Selling interest in beans and meal was limited by improved risk appetite in the general marketplace as U.S. lawmakers appear close to a deal to reopen the federal government as soon as later this week. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today also limited the downside in beans and meal.
A Reuters poll showed analysts estimated U.S. soybeans to be 96% harvested, on average, as of Sunday.
China’s COFCO oilseed unit reported Monday that it had signed agreements to purchase Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil and other agricultural products, with a total volume of nearly 20 million tons worth over $10 billion.
World Weather Inc. today said central and northern Brazil will see a mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks and eventually improvements in soil moisture and conditions for planting, germination and establishment. Some areas are likely to miss out on significant rain for another week to 10 days. Eastern Mato Grosso into Goias and Bahia, central and northern Minas Gerais, and Espirito Santo will see a poor distribution of significant rain through Monday before rain increases Nov. 18-25 and notable improvements in soil moisture likely result. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rain and favorable conditions for crops through the next two weeks with some fieldwork likely to advance between rounds of rain. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around a few rounds of rain through Sunday that will favor northern areas before rain is infrequent and often light Monday through Nov. 25. After recent rains, much of the country should have enough soil moisture to support crop development with the drier areas in central and northern Cordoba not likely to have enough soil moisture to prevent the region from having short soil moisture return next week. Much of western Argentina will be in need of rain during the last week of the month while soil moisture should still be supportive of crop development in eastern Argentina where a boost in rain will be needed soon.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.35 3/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.18 1/2 and then at last Friday’s low of $11.08.
December soybean meal bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $304.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $320.40 and then at last week’s high of $325.20. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at last week’s low of $310.50.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the October high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.52 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 1/4 cent to $5.36, near mid-range. December HRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.23 3/4, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.69 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw a pause. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace to start the trading week has limited selling interest in wheat futures. It appears U.S. lawmakers are getting close to reopening the federal government as soon as later this week. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today also limited the downside in winter wheat futures. Wheat traders are awaiting this Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.
A Reuters poll showed analysts estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings were 95% complete, on average, as of Sunday. Meanwhile, analysts estimated the winter wheat crop to be rated as 52% “good” to “excellent.”
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a more-active weather pattern will begin Saturday or Sunday and this could involve the first of a series of storm systems. The greatest precipitation is expected in eastern production areas. However, some beneficial moisture is likely to occur in the west as well. Rain and some snow will be involved with the more-active weather pattern, with the greatest snow occurring in west-central and northwestern production areas. Temperatures will be far above average in the next seven days; however, cooling will occur in the second week of the outlook. In the Northern Plains, a dry weather pattern will continue through most of Sunday before a more-active pattern potentially begins to occur. Greater precipitation is most needed in Montana.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh power this week to keep the price uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.26 1/4 and then at $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at last week’s high of $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.17 3/4 and then at $5.05.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 43 points to 63.88 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw a mild corrective pullback after Monday’s gains. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today limited selling interest in cotton futures, as did improved risk appetite in the general marketplace amid hopes the U.S. government will reopen as soon as laser this week. Cotton traders are looking forward to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in California and Arizona late this week and into the weekend will delay late- season farming activity and may discolor any unharvested cotton crop. Other areas in the U.S. will experience good harvest conditions through the weekend, with little to no rain and warming temperatures after recent freezes.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the October high of 66.10 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.59 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.52 cents and then at 63.00 cents.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.