Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $4.85 3/4, nearer the daily high and closed at a 52-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw technical buying featured today as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Solid gains in soybeans also spilled over into buying interest in corn futures today.
USDA this morning reported solid weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 2.03 MMT during the week ended April 30, up 371,277 MT from the previous week.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks will slow planting, but there will be breaks in the precipitation that should allow for fieldwork to advance well overall, with central Missouri to Ohio and Kentucky wettest overall and the greatest rain likely occurring through this weekend. The northwestern Corn Belt will be driest overall and although topsoil moisture was recently increased from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota and east-central South Dakota subsoil moisture has not been fully restored and the region would benefit from greater rain. Frost and freezes will spread from northwestern areas Tuesday to a large part of the northern and portions of the central and southwestern Corn Belt Wednesday into Friday. The southern extent of freezes Tuesday into Friday will from the eastern Dakotas to central and northern Wisconsin likely to drop below freezing, with a few pockets of freezes possible just south of the region. Many areas from east-central and northeastern Nebraska to Michigan should see frost with some pockets of frost south of this region.
Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show U.S. corn planting at 39% complete as of Sunday, compared to 25% done one week ago and 40% in the ground at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today as prices are trending up on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $4.87 1/2 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans gained 19 1/2 cents to $12.22 3/4, near the daily high and hit a seven-week high. July soybean meal rose $1.60 to $320.90, near mid-range. July soybean oil gained 137 points to 76.53 cents, nearer the daily high and hit yet another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw strong chart-based buying featured as prices finally posted a strong upside technical breakout from the recent sideways and choppy trading range, likely setting off a fair amount of pre-placed buy stop orders. Spreaders were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal today, as crude oil posted solid gains to the benefit of bean oil.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean inspections totaled 450,145 MT for the week ended April 30, down 188,158 MT from the previous week.
World Weather Inc. today said soybean planting in the U.S. should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest this week will slow fieldwork. The wetter Midwest conditions should shift northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late next week and into mid-month.
This afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop planting at 35% complete as of Sunday, compared to 23% done last Sunday and 30% one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.50 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.30 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at $12.10 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $318.00 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 76.93 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 74.77 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.41, nearer the daily high. July HRW closed steady at $6.94 1/2, nearer the daily high. July spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents $6.99 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw a pause and some more profit taking and chart consolidation following recent gains. Wheat bulls were somewhat disappointed that solid gains in the soybean and corn markets today did not spill over into better strength in wheat prices. However, the wheat markets had been the upside leaders for the grains the past three weeks.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 434,204 MT for the week ended April 30, up 64,457 MT from the previous week.
As of April 30, Russia had only planted 0.4 million hectares of spring wheat, down 81% on the year as cool and wet weather has slowed fieldwork.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, some relief to dryness is expected in Kansas, Colorado and southwestern Nebraska this week. The advertised rain event has a much better potential to verify and if it does there should be some temporary improvement for wheat development and summer crop planting, emergence and establishment. Southwestern parts of the wheat region will not get as much rain as central parts of the region. There is some potential for locally moderate to heavy rain in southeastern wheat areas of Oklahoma. None of the frost and freezes that occurred during the weekend should have caused permanent damage to wheat, but recent freezes and frost might have impacted early emerged corn in a few areas in the north. In the Northern Plains, cold weather this week in the Dakotas and Minnesota will restrict crop development, but some fieldwork is expected to advance in the absence of significant precipitation. Warm weather in the western parts of the northern Plains will stimulate more wheat development and the dry bias will favor some fieldwork.
This afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop planting at 34% complete as of Sunday, compared to 19% done last Sunday and 44% one year ago at the same time. The U.S. winter wheat crop is expected to be in 30% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 51% in the same category one year ago.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.71 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.18 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.00 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.82 1/4 and then at $6.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 127 points to 82.92 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw routine profit-taking pressure following the strong gains seen late last week. Still, the cotton market fundamentals lean bullish amid sharply higher crude oil prices and the resulting higher costs for synthetic fibers. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently has also aided the cotton bulls, with major U.S. stock indexes hitting record highs recently.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support unirrigated cotton development. These areas will not see much significant rain through Wednesday, but a scattering of showers and thunderstorms are possible from late this week into next week offering brief bouts of relief. Much more rain is needed to break drought and dryness. West Texas rainfall late last week was disappointing for some areas but Thursday night and Friday’s rain in the southwestern dryland areas was welcome. Much more rain is needed throughout the region and only scattered showers are expected for a while. Recent rain in the U.S. Delta has brought some relief to crop moisture stress in cotton areas. Some other showers and thunderstorms are expected and temperatures will be a little milder than usual for a while this week.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 84.64 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 81.79 cents and then at 81.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.