Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.80, nearer the daily low after hitting a nearly two-month high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some routine profit-taking pressure today, following recent good gains. Bulls are still in the driver’s seat.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated 38% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of May 3, up 13 percentage points from the previous week and four points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
Our crop consultant Michael Cordonnier said in his weekly corn and soybean crop report that this year’s U.S. corn acreage could end up 1 million to 2 million acres less than the 95.33 million acres estimated in the USDA Perspective Plantings Report. His 2026 U.S. corn yield is estimated at between 180 to 182 bu/ac, which is below last year due to a potential reduction in fertilizer usage.
World Weather Inc. today said corn-planting in the U.S. should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest this week will slow fieldwork. There is also the potential for frosts/freezes in the upper Midwest. The wetter Midwest conditions should shift northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late next week and into mid-month.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today as prices are trending up on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.87 1/2 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.75 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans lost 11 1/4 cents to $12.11 1/2, near the daily low. July soybean meal fell $0.50 to $320.50, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil gained 38 points to 76.91 cents, nearer the daily high and hit yet another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some normal and arguably healthy profit-taking pressure amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Spreaders were at work again today buying soybean oil and selling meal.
USDA estimated 33% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of May 3, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 5-year average. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier notes 2026 U.S. soybean acreage could end up 1-2 million acres more than the 84.70 million acres estimated in the Prospective Plantings Report. He estimates the national average soybean yield at 52 bushels per acre. Cordonnier also noted a 1 MMT increase in Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production to 180 MMT, and holds a neutral bias going forward. He left his Argentina soybean production estimate unchanged at 49 MMT. As of last week, 18.3% of the Argentine crop was estimated to be harvested, compared to 22% last year and 29% on average.
World Weather Inc. today said in a special report: “One more bout of extremes is expected Thursday with morning temperatures falling into the middle and upper 20s Fahrenheit in Colorado and western Kansas. Could this be the last straw for a crop that is already rated poorly? World Weather, Inc. believes some damage is possible and the impact when added to all of the other problems will maintain a lower production year for the crop, but a true disaster is not likely.” Meantime, the forecaster said regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks will slow planting, but there will be breaks in the precipitation that should allow for fieldwork to advance well overall with southeastern Missouri to Ohio and Kentucky wettest overall. The northwestern Corn Belt will be driest overall and although topsoil moisture was recently increased from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota and east-central South Dakota subsoil moisture has not been fully restored and the region would benefit from greater rain. Frost and freezes will occur in a large part of the northern and portions of the central and southwestern Corn Belt Wednesday into Friday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.50 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.26 1/4 and then at $12.35. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at $11.90.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $318.00 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 76.99 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 74.77 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 13 1/4 cents to $6.27 3/4, nearer the daily low. July HRW lost 4 1/2 cents to $6.90, nearer the daily high. September HRS fell 3 1/4 cents to $7.14.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw profit-taking pressure following recent gains.
The U.S. winter wheat crop improved slightly, with USDA rating the crop 31% good to excellent as of May 4, up one point from last week, but 20 points behind last year at this time. The portion of the crop rated poor to very poor increased two percentage points to 37%. Click here to read about potential abandonment amid subpar conditions.
World weather today said U.S. wheat areas in the central Plains will have a few opportunities for rain and snow in this coming week and temperatures will be cooler than usual. Some crop improvement is expected when precipitation develops in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska during mid-week this week. Hard freezes are expected in parts of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Thursday morning, possibly raising some concern about possible crop damage. Meantime around the globe, showers will impact portions of the western FSU during the next ten days to two weeks. Mild temperatures will conserve soil moisture through slow evaporation rates. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East. Some increase in rainfall is needed in parts of western Europe. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn. India’s winter wheat crop has performed well, although some rain has reduced grain quality in a few pockets. Showers in southern and eastern Australia in the next two weeks will be welcome, although greater rain will be needed.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.71 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.50 1/4 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.18 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.01 3/4 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.76 3/4 and then at $6.62 1/4.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.71 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.18 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.00 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.82 1/4 and then at $6.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 188 points to 84.80 cents and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw technical buying from the speculators resume. The cotton market fundamentals lean bullish amid sharply higher crude oil prices and the resulting higher costs for synthetic fibers.
USDA’s weekly crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop 21% planted as of last Sunday versus 16% last week and 20% planted one year ago at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said Monday was mostly dry and planting in the U.S. likely advanced well in many areas. Rain in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be too infrequent during the next two weeks to cause significant planting delays or to induce notable increases in soil moisture leaving most dryland areas in need of rain to improve conditions for planting, germination, and establishment with some exceptions in the southwest. The Blacklands, South Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see some light showers through Wednesday before rain returns Wednesday night and continues most days into Monday with some additional rain possible May 13-16. Much of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will receive 0.50-2.0” of rain and locally more by Monday with some bands of heavier rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 84.90 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 82.55 cents and then at 81.79 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.