Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $4.54, near the daily high and hit a three-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some short covering today following recent selling pressure. Gains were limited by weaker wheat prices today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 2.0 MMT during the week ended April 2, up 122,259 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped the expected pre-report range of 1.3 to 1.85 MMT. The weekly USDA crop progress reports begin this afternoon.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Midwest, sufficient rain fell last Thursday through Sunday to saturate the topsoil and prevent early season fieldwork from occurring for a while. Cool temperatures early this week will keep fields wet until the next wave of precipitation begins late this week through early to mid-week next week. That is likely to translate into delayed planting, but improved weather should come along later in the month to induce some welcome drying. The Ohio River Valley did not get much weekend precipitation and this week’s moisture should be restricted as well and that should translate into an opportunity for some planting. Meantime in Brazil, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected in much of Brazil’s crop areas during the next 10 days, supporting late season crop development and some ongoing harvest activity.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.48 1/4 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 3 1/4 cents to $11.66 3/4, nearer the daily high. May soybean meal gained $1.40 to $316.60, near mid-range. May soybean oil rose 101 points to 69.95 cents, near the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures saw some short covering today. Some improved risk appetite in the general marketplace today also aided the soybean complex bulls.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 779,352 MT during the week ended April 2, up 85,276 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were above analysts’ pre-report range of 400,000 to 750,000 MT. The weekly USDA crop progress reports begin this afternoon.
World Weather Inc. today said planting potential in the U.S. is looking favorable for the lower-most Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, despite a few bouts of rain. The recent boost in soil moisture may stall early season planting, but the moisture will prove to be very good for crop development later this spring and fieldwork will resume with a few days of drying early this week. Meantime, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected in much of Brazil’s crop areas during the next ten days supporting late season crop development and some ongoing harvest activity. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the central and south and additional wet weather early this week will delay crop maturation and harvesting while raising a level of concern over sunseed quality.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.53 and then at the March low of $11.45 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $320.00 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $312.30 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh power. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 72.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 3 cents to $5.95 1/4, near mid-range. May HRW fell 7 1/2 cents to $6.08 1/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.4 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure today and some fresh technical selling as the near-term chart postures for SRW and HRW are deteriorating.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 334,106 MT during the week ended April 2, down 52,148 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports begin this afternoon. The U.S. winter wheat crop is expected to be in 42% good to excellent condition. Spring wheat is expected to be 2% planted as of Sunday.
The big hedge funds have turned net bullish on wheat futures for the first time in nearly four years, according to a Bloomberg report, “betting on higher prices driven by dry weather in the U.S. and a shortage of fertilizer and fuel arising from the war in the Middle East.”
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, conditions in the next two weeks will involve a gradual improvement of topsoil moisture, both in the east and west. There remains some uncertainty as to just how significant this improvement will be, but generally greater rainfall is expected in most areas compared to the previous few weeks. This will be very important for development of the winter wheat crop. In the Northern Plains, occasional rain and snow shower activity in the next seven days will help keep much of the region favorably moist for the upcoming growing season. New snow cover from this past weekend will be gradually melting.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.88 1/2 and then at $5.80.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.48 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at $6.15 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.91 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 75 points to 71.67 cents, nearer the session high and hit an 11-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying today amid a price uptrend that is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. A somewhat better risk appetite in the general marketplace today benefitted the cotton market bulls.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports begin this afternoon.
World Weather Inc. today said some weekend showers in south Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend helped ease chronic dryness, but much more moisture was needed to improve long term crop development potential and soil moisture. The Blacklands experienced much improved soil moisture while West Texas was left largely dry. Changes this week will bring some additional “opportunity” for rain in west Texas. South Texas dryness will remain an ongoing concern due to dryness.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 73.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 72.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 70.78 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.