Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.28 1/2, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some short covering today. Buying interest was also supported by friendly outside markets that saw a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Big rebounds in the gold and silver markets today also assuaged the grain market bulls.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine corn production estimate by 1 MMT, to 53 MMT, as conditions continue to deteriorate, especially in the core production area. Meanwhile, Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian corn production estimate of 137 MMT. He holds a lower bias toward the Argentine crop and a neutral bias toward the Brazilian crop.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina into the weekend will raise some concern for corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some welcome showers are advertised for the weekend and next week easing some of dryness. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain. Rain frequency and intensity in center south Brazil may be a little high for aggressive early season soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting, but some progress is expected.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.34. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.29 and then at $4.32. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.24 and then at $4.21.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $10.65 3/4, near mid-range. March soybean meal fell $2.60 to $291.90, near the daily low. March soybean oil gained 129 points to 54.49 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw some short covering today. A weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices were also bullish outside markets for the soy complex today, as were gold and silver prices that were sharply up today. Spreaders were also featured buying bean oil and selling meal futures, on overnight news that the U.S. and India had slashed their tariffs on each other, with India to buy more U.S. ag products.
The Department of Treasury and Internal Revenue Service issued proposed legislation for domestic producers of clean transportation fuel to determine their eligibility for and calculate the clean fuel production credit under the One, Big Beautiful Bill.
Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean production estimate 1 MMT to 47 MMT, and noted a lower bias going forward. He held his Brazilian production estimate at 179 MMT and indicated a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is wetter for Paraguay and southern Brazil than what was advertised Monday. After a few more days of mostly dry weather, crop stress rain will increase Friday and regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur into Feb. 17. Soakings of rain will not occur right away, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two week while fieldwork is slowed, especially from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo and nearby areas where rain will be frequent and fieldwork will be sluggish. Eastern Bahia will be driest, but rain there should be great enough to support the needs of most crops. Meantime, southern Argentina will benefit from rain tonight into Thursday and crops will benefit from the moisture, but with little follow-up rain of significance expected through the middle of the month stress to crops should soon increase again as the soil dries out. Rain into Thursday in southern Argentina will be greatest from San Luis and La Pampa to southern Santa Fe and northwestern Buenos Aires where crops should benefit from the moisture for at least several days. Rain elsewhere in southern Argentina should not be great enough to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Central and northern Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but the drier areas from central Santa Fe to Entre Rios see another week of little rain and rising levels of crop stress. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 10-14 as this event will be important in halting increases in crop stress.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the January high of $10.85 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $10.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at $10.75 and then at $10.85 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.60 and then at this week’s low of $10.51 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $294.90 and then at $297.50. First support is seen at $290.00 and then at the January low of $288.40.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as bulls are working to restart a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the January high of 54.95 cents and then at 55.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.35 cents and then at this week’s low of 52.61 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 1 cent to $5.28 3/4, near the session high. March HRW lost 1/2 cent to $5.34 3/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.68 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw mild selling pressure early on and then some short covering in late trading. Bulls were disappointed that a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices, as well as modest gains in corn and soybeans, could not produce better gains in wheat prices.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country not much precipitation is expected in the next seven days and temperatures will be above to well above normal. The soil temperatures will be warming, but this is unlikely to trigger much of an exit from winter dormancy due to how cold the previous two weeks were. As the unusual warmth continues in the second week of the outlook, loss of winter hardiness could become more of a thing. Some increase in precipitation is also expected in the second week too. In the Northern Plains, weather in the region will still be generally uneventful through the next seven days. Some insignificant snow showers and flurries are expected with plenty of unusual warmth. Greater snowfall remains possible in the second week of the outlook.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at $5.35 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/4 and then at $5.07.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at last week’s high of $5.50. First support is seen at $5.25 1/4 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 36 points to 62.31 cents, nearer the session low and set a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical selling pressure today. The technical posture for cotton futures remains firmly bearish. A weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today did not help out the cotton bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said excessive heat and dryness in Australia has abated but the environment was stressful for cotton, especially in unirrigated fields. Rain potentials are improving for a part of the production region this weekend and next week, and a close watch on its distribution is warranted. Irrigated crops should quickly improve as temperatures become less threatening. Easternmost cotton in Queensland was never impacted by the extreme heat that occurred in New South Wales and western cotton areas of Queensland. South Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that resulted from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region will be less than usual this spring. The impressive weekend snowstorm in the Carolinas and neighboring areas of Georgia and Virginia brought some moisture to the region for use in the spring. Additional precipitation is needed in these areas and northern Florida and southeastern Alabama. Argentina crop conditions are favorable. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next 10 days. Cotton planting in Brazil has advanced well and should benefit from a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 63.21 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 62.16 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.