Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.77 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit another four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical buying featured today as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. More gains in winter wheat futures and a bounce in soybeans today also supported buying interest in corn futures.
Weather in the U.S. Midwest is starting to lean price-friendly for corn. World Weather Inc. today said rain in the Midwest during the next two weeks will be less frequent and lighter than what has occurred recently and good planting progress should occur during the drier periods, with the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt wettest. The west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will be driest and will see fieldwork advance well while greater rain will be needed in the drier areas from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota and east-central South Dakota where recent rain did not fully restore the soil moisture. Meantime, frost and light freezes will occur into Sunday, with light freezes as far south as northeastern Nebraska to southern Minnesota to Michigan and parts of northern Indiana and northern Ohio, while frost occurs as far south as northeastern Kansas to northern Illinois to much of Ohio. Frost and some freezes will return to parts of the Midwest during the middle to late part of next week and with a larger portion of summer crops emerged and winter wheat further advanced than today, impacts on those crops could be more significant than what occurs from this week’s cold. Early indications suggest frost and some freezes would be most likely from the far northwestern Corn Belt to the Great Lakes region. Recent wet weather in a large part of the region and cold temperatures in the far northwestern Corn Belt have likely limited planting and there may not be many new crops emerged by the middle to late part of next week.
Corn traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts shows they expect U.S. corn sales of 1.1 million to 1.9 million MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.74 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 7 3/4 cents to $11.97, near the daily high and closed at a six-week high close. July soybean meal fell $3.60 to $323.80, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil gained 160 points to 74.12 cents, near the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw technical buying as bulls are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gains in corn futures today also supported buying interest in beans and bean oil. Spreaders were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal today.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta this week because of rain and cooler temperatures. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some rain is expected later in the week to help improve crops.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts shows they expect U.S. bean sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the April high of $12.01 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.01 1/4 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.76 3/4 and then at $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical playing advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $315.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $331.10 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at this week’s low of $318.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 77.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 67.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 72.33 cents and then at 71.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 4 3/4 cents to $6.53 near the daily low after hitting a 22-month high early on. July HRW rose 2 1/2 cents to $7.04 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a 22-month high early on. July spring wheat futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $7.15 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw follow-through technical buying interest but some profit taking from the shorter-term traders knocked prices off their highs near the end of the trading day. Gains in corn and soybeans today also supported the winter wheat bulls.
Russian wheat exports rose to 4.7 MMT in March, sharply up from 2.9 MMT in February after the beginning of the war in the Middle East - that was almost a record high monthly volume as importers rushed to secure supplies, according to the Sizov Report by Sovecon.
U.S. weather still leans bullish for wheat. World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, some rain will occur in western and southern production areas in the first week of the outlook, mainly late today through Friday. Any rain will be beneficial and better than none. However, amounts in the region could leave farmers disappointed, at least in-comparison to what falls slightly farther to the south. Any meaningful rainfall will be limited mostly to eastern Colorado, the most-western counties of Kansas, western and southern parts of the Texas Panhandle, and the most-southern counties of Oklahoma. Net drying is expected elsewhere, which is in a majority of the region. In the Northern Plains, very little precipitation is expected in the next seven days. Temperatures will still trend warmer later this week, especially after Thursday, which will be good for allowing more greening and crop development to begin.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts shows they expect U.S. wheat sales of 100,000 to 500,000 MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.71 1/2 and then at $6.80. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.36.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.18 1/2 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.98 1/4 and then at $6.85.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures lost 47 points to 79.20 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw more profit-taking pressure. Higher crude oil prices limited selling interest but a wobbly U.S. stock market at mid-week kept the cotton bulls mostly on the sidelines.
World Weather Inc. today said fieldwork likely advanced well in many areas Tuesday as much of the region was dry with up to 0.20 inch of rain noted in parts of the northern Blacklands. High temperatures from the Panhandle into southwestern Oklahoma were in the 70s Fahrenheit with a few upper 60s in the north while other areas saw highs in the 80s to the middle 90s. Lows this morning in the west were in the middle 30s through the 40s north and were in the upper 40s to the lower 60s south while other areas saw lows in the 70s with 60s in the northern Blacklands. West Texas will benefit from significant rain and increases in soil moisture Thursday into Friday and conditions for planting and germination in dryland areas will improve while rain in much of the Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma will be too light to significantly boost soil moisture. Little additional precipitation is expected into May 12 and dryland cotton that is planted and germinates may run out of moisture before the plant becomes well established. Rain during the next two weeks in the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will be greatest into Friday when increases in soil moisture result before rain is infrequent and light Saturday into May 13 allowing for fieldwork to advance well while cotton develops with favorable soil moisture.
Cotton traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the April high of 81.79 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 80.53 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.70 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.