Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.22 and near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw modest short covering amid more chart consolidation. Gains in the U.S. dollar index to a nine-week high today did limit the upside in corn futures. Commercial hedge pressure as the corn harvest is in full swing is also a bearish element for corn futures at present. However, the corn market appears to be presently absorbing the commercial selling without prices deteriorating.
Brazil’s corn exports in October are expected to reach 6.0 MMT, compared to 5.67 MMT during the same period last year, according to Anec.
World Weather Inc. today said some recent rain has disrupted harvesting, but limited precipitation from the Delta into the eastern Midwest will ensure that fieldwork advances well once again. Some periodic rain in the northwestern corn and soybean production areas may disrupt fieldwork periodically. Meanwhile, South America weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center west and center south Brazil and some of that will evolve this weekend into next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.24 1/2 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 7 1/2 cents to $10.29 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high. December soybean meal gained $1.10 to $278.00, nearer the session high. December soybean oil rose 44 points to 51.48 cents, near the daily low and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex saw short covering and some perceived bargain buying from the speculators today. Gains were limited by a higher U.S. dollar index that scored a nine-week high today. Commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is in high gear may limit further gains in the soy complex in the near term.
Brazil’s soybean exports during October are expected to reach 7.12 MMT, versus 4.44 MMT during the same period last year, according to Anec. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 1.92 MMT, versus 2.46 MMT last year.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks “should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress in much of the Midwest” despite some rain Saturday into next Tuesday and occasional showers during the remainder of the period. A large part of the Ohio River Basin will need some drying time before fieldwork can resume and with little rain expected through at least the next ten days farming activity should soon increase. Temperatures during the next week will be warmer to much warmer than normal most often with some near normal temperatures in the east during the next few days. Some frost and light freezes will occur in the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have some momentum on their side. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.52 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.20 and then at this week’s low of $10.14.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $282.00 and then at $285.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $275.00 and then at $272.20.
Bean oil bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are starting to trend higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.54 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.90 cents and then at last week’s low of 49.20 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.07 1/4. December HRW gained 1 1/4 cents to $4.93 1/4. Both markets closed near their daily highs. December spring wheat futures rose 3 1/2 cents to $5.55 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to struggle amid fully bearish charts and speculators still willing to push the short side of the markets. A higher U.S. dollar index today that hit a nine-week high was again a bearish outside market for wheat futures.
Reports said wheat exports from the Black Sea region have slowed, but increased shipments from the Americas and Australia are helping balance global supply. Russia exported 9.91 MMT of wheat in the first quarter of 2025-26, which was a 31% decline from the same period last year, though September shipments rose slightly.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the soft wheat in the Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next 10 days, resulting in good planting, germination and emergence conditions. Some greater rain will be desired in the drier pockets. Canada’s Prairies will be largely dry until the weekend when a large storm system is possible that will produce rain and snow. Meantime, rain expected in Ukraine this week and that likely in Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan this weekend into next week “will be ideal for advancing winter crop planting and inducing improved emergence and establishment conditions,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.18 1/4 and then at $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.08 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 45 points to 64.91 cents, near the daily high and hit a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw short covering in a bear market. The speculators are likely going to continue to press the short side amid fully bearish technical charts. A higher U.S. dollar index that hit a nine-week high today was a bearish “outside-market” factor for the cotton futures market today.
World Weather Inc. today said a few showers and thunderstorms will occur infrequently across West Texas during the next 10 days. Most of the rain will be brief and light and should not have a serious impact on open boll cotton fiber. Warm weather will prevail which should help promote crop maturation. U.S. Delta and southeastern crops will experience a restricted rainfall pattern over the next week to 10 days, supporting crop maturation and some harvest progress. Recent rain in the northern Delta may have discolored some of the cotton and strung some of it out its bolls, but the lack of boll rot should have limited any production loss because of heavy rain. Most of the southwestern U.S. cotton will be subjected to a general quality decline because of tropical moisture that is expected from the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and a new disturbance expected to evolve in the next few days off the southwest Mexico coast, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 65.56 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 64.16 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.