Corn
Price action: July corn fell 1 3/4 cent to $4.47 1/2 after extending to the lowest intraday level since Dec. 6 in early trade.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures sank to the lowest intraday level since early December, with a surging U.S. dollar apparently overshadowing daily export sales, strong weekly export sales data and support from a rebound in crude. Meanwhile, the marketplace seemed rather uninspired by President Trump’s trade deal with the U.K., despite noting the deal would include agricultural, chemical, energy and industrial exports, including ethanol. However, details of the pact between the two countries would continue to be negotiated over the coming weeks, “with specifics to be resolved later,” according to Bloomberg.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export sales data for the week ended May 1, with net sales totaling a solid 1.66 MMT, up 64% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Exports for the week totaled 1.82 MMT. Mexico, Japan and Colombia were the top destinations.
Moreover, USDA also reported daily sales of 205,000 MT to Mexico and 115,000 MT to unknown destinations, which continues to prove that corn prices are at value levels. Bears hold the near-term advantage, though today’s price bar is indicative of a near-term bottom amid technically oversold conditions. However, bears will remain focused on edging below support at $4.25. Meanwhile, bulls are looking to work above resistance at $4.70, with first support layered at the 200- and 10-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.61 1/4 and $4.66 1/4.
Technical analysis: Corn futures were able to rebound from the daily low as the session progressed, with support serving at $4.44, while initial resistance stood at $4.53 3/4.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybean futures climbed 5 3/4 cents to $10.45 and closed nearer session highs. July meal futures inched 30 cents lower to $294.7. July bean oil surged 112 points to 48.45 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures posted impressive gains overnight though struggled to maintain strength as corn futures continue to lead the ag complex lower. Reports that officials from the U.S. and China will be meeting this weekend have somewhat run their course as pessimism continues to surround the marketplace and traders feel export demand will dry up this summer following the 90-day pause on tariffs. The marketplace has quickly gone from looking forward to trade talks to wanting concrete evidence that deals are being signed and a tangible impact on demand will be had.
USDA reported daily sales of 225,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Pakistan during the 2025/26 marketing year. This is the first daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022. Pakistan had previously blocked imports of genetically engineered soybeans and their imports are seen climbing to 2 MMT in 2025/26.
USDA reported soybean sales of 376,700 MT for the week ended May 1, down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the four-week average. Net sales were within pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 500,000 MT. Export shipments totaled 258,319 MT (9.5 million bu.), which were a marketing year low. The anticipation for weaker exports due to tariffs showed a little in today’s report which pulled futures off their highs today.
Technical analysis: July soybean futures traded solidly higher today as prices continue to trade in a sideways range. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $10.46 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then the psychological $10.50 mark on another push higher. That is reinforced by resistance at $10.58. Support stands at $10.39 1/4 then $10.30 on resurgent selling pressure.
July meal futures continue to undergo persistent selling pressure, unable to close prices above resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $295.90, as bears retain full control of the technical advantage. Additional resistance stands at $297.60, while support comes in at $293.50 then $292.6 0on continued selling pressure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 5 cents to $5.29 1/4 and nearer the session low. July HRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.24 3/4, nearer the session low and set a contract low. July spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.00 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw selling pressure again today amid generally improved growing conditions for wheat crops in the U.S. and in other major global wheat regions. A sharply higher U.S. dollar index was also bearish for wheat today, as was another drop in corn futures prices. Wheat bulls got no traction today from better trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace, due in part to President Trump announcing a new trade deal with the U.K. and saying more deals are coming.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in the central U.S. “have improved and that trend will continue in some areas, although portions of Oklahoma have been too wet and need to dry out. Most of the soft wheat in the Midwest is also expected to develop favorably. Portions of the Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also a little too wet and drying is needed.” Meantime, winter crops in much of Europe “are beginning more aggressive growth, while spring cereals are being put into the ground. Moisture conditions are good and should remain that way, despite drier- biased conditions in the north.”Germany and some immediate neighboring areas will need rain as soon as warming takes place. Cooler-than-usual temperatures in eastern Europe may bring more frost and freezes to slow crop development in the next week to ten days from Poland into Belarus, the Baltic States and northwestern Ukraine. Frost reached into northwestern Ukraine this morning and it is possible again periodically into next week, although temperatures will not be cold enough for permanent crop damage.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat 2024-25 sales of 69,700 MT for the week ended May 1, down 3% from the previous week but up notably from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations. Sales of 493,000 MT for 2025-26 topped market expectations. Exports totaled 493,500 MT during the week.
Stats Canada today reported total Canadian wheat stocks fell 1.2% from last year to 15.4 million metric tons (MMT) as of March 31. Exports increased 9.1% to 18.3 MMT, driven by a 56.1% jump in durum shipments.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.38 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $5.48. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.34 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.46 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.20 1/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures slid 69 points to 66.69 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures fell for the third consecutive session as pessimism surrounding trade continues to weigh heavily on the market. USDA reported cotton sales totaling 92,900 bales for the week ended May 1, which was down 24% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. The lack of sales was rather disappointing but was not terribly uncommon for this time of year. Meanwhile, export shipments totaled 409,300 bales, up solidly from the previous week and the most since the week ended March 6. Export shipments remaining strong has been a testament to the demand for physical cotton. Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey each were top importers of cotton for the week ended May 1. Similar to soybeans, the cotton market has become somewhat immune to reports of upcoming trade talks with China. If and once a deal is made with China, it will take some concrete evidence of a boost in demand before prices might react much.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures closed lower for the third consecutive session as bears maintain the overall technical advantage. Bulls do continue to hold a modest uptrend dating back to the April low. Support at 66.10 cents limited the downside today and is reinforced by last week’s low close of 65.66 cents. Resistance comes in at 67.44 cents, the 40-day moving average, on a bounce, while persistent strength targets this week’s high at 69.10 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.