Corn: December corn futures fell 13 1/4 cents to $3.94 1/2, nearer the daily low and set a fresh contract low. Corn traders reckoned today’s batch of USDA supply and demand data would be price-bearish—just not that bearish! The agency forecast a bin-buster record U.S. corn crop of 16.742 billion bushels. USDA’s August U.S. corn production estimate increased 1.037 billion bu. from July and was 752 million bu. bigger than analysts had expected. Average yield is forecast at a record high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year’s 179.3 bushels and 7.8 bushels above the July estimate. Using FSA certified acres, NASS forecast planted acres at 97.3 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the previous year.
Soybeans: November soybeans rose 21 1/2 cents to $10.32 3/4, near the daily high and hit a three-week high.. September soybean meal gained 60 cents to $281.40, near mid-range and hit a six-week high. September soybean oil rose 5 points to 53.24 cents, near the daily high and hit a six-week low early on. Soybean bulls were cheered today as USDA forecast U.S. soybean production at 4.292 billion bu, just a bit lower than trade expected, at 4.368 billion bu., and compares to 4.335 billion bu. projected in the July USDA report. Yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2024. Big losses in corn and lower wheat futures prices today did somewhat temper gains in the soybean and meal markets.
Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 9 1/2 cents to $5.26, nearer the daily low and set a contract low. December HRW wheat fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.30, near mid-range. December HRS fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.95. Today’s USDA data was slightly bearish for wheat prices, but the big losses in corn futures today were likely responsible for most of the price pressure in wheat futures. USDA today forecast all U.S. wheat production at 1.927 billion bu.; the trade expected 1.922 billion bu. and compares with 1.929 billion bu. In the July report. USDA cut its other spring wheat estimate 20 million bu. from July but increased expected durum production 7 million bu. USDA raised its U.S. wheat yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 52.7 bu. and left harvested acres unchanged at 36.6 million.
Cotton: December cotton rose 163 points to 68.39 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. Cotton traders got a bullish surprise from USDA today. The agency significantly lowered its U.S. cotton production estimate by 1.386 million bales from the July projection, to 13.214 million bales. The trade expected 14.55 million bales and compares to 14.6 million bales projected in July. Traders expected only a modest production cut. USDA estimates the yield at 862 lbs. per acre, up from 809 lbs. last month. Harvested acres were reduced by 1.3 million acres, largely due to reduced plantings as found in FSA certified acres, as plantings are now estimated at 9.277 million acres.
Cattle: August live cattle rose $2.75 to $235.825, near the session high. August feeder cattle gained $5.15 to $345.995, near the daily high. The cattle futures bulls needed to step up and show decent price strength early this week, following last Friday’s big downdrafts, and they have done just that. Once again, the cattle futures bulls show keen resilience when it looks like they are on the ropes. Live cattle futures discounts to the cash cattle market continue to support buying interest in futures.
Hogs: October lean hogs fell 17 1/2 cents to $91.60, near mid-range. August hog futures expire Thursday. The lean hog futures market is seeing limited buying interest this week amid weakening cash hog market fundamentals. However, sellers are also timid amid the early-week strength in the cattle futures markets.