Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.30 1/4, nearer the session low after hitting a four-month high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market early on today saw some consolidation from recent good price gains and then some late-session profit-taking from the shorter-term speculators. The U.S. dollar index today hit a three-month high, which was also a bearish outside-market element for corn. The rally in the soybean market the past two weeks will likely at least keep a floor under the corn futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation in the Midwest during the next two weeks will be infrequent, poorly organized, and often light allowing fieldwork to advance well. Temperatures will be warmer than normal most often through the next week in northern parts of the western Corn Belt, while other areas see mostly near temperatures through Sunday and warmer than normal temperatures next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.37 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 13 1/4 cents to $11.07 3/4, nearer the session high and hit a 13-month high. December soybean meal rose $6.90 to $315.60, nearer the daily high and hit a seven-month high. December soybean oil fell 51 points to 49.65 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: January soybeans today posted a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, to suggest the chart-based speculators will continue to aggressively pursue the long side in the near term. The soybean meal futures market continues to scream higher but it’s now extremely overbought and due for a downside correction. Bean oil was punished again today as spreaders were again featured buying soybean meal and selling bean oil futures today.
Beans were weaker overnight on a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario following the conclusion of the summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi and the announcement of a one-year trade truce. Then early this morning news surfaced that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year and to buy a minimum of 25 million tons annually over the next three years as a part of a larger trade agreement, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. That popped the soybean and meal markets. The U.S. dollar index today hitting a three-month high may have capped what could have been even more gains in beans and meal.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in Brazil this weekend and next week should be sufficient and widespread enough to improve crop development in areas that have not seen much moisture recently. However, there is some concern over subsoil moisture remaining low and follow up rain will be very important. Argentina has been seeing and will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a good outlook during the next two weeks, although some drying is likely in the east.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.14 1/2 and then at $11.25. First support is seen at $10.90 and then at $10.90.
December soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is extremely overbought. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $295.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $317.50 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at today’s low of $304.50.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.94 cents and then at last week’s high of 51.46 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.21 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 8 cents to $5.24 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW lost 9 3/4 cents to $5.13, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 10 cents to $5.50 1/2, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators today, after recent good gains. The U.S. dollar index today hit a three-month high, which was also a bearish outside-market element for the grains. Today’s summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi went well and may eventually produce more Chinese demand for U.S. wheat. This is likely to at least keep a floor under the wheat futures markets in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry-biased weather through at least the next seven days will continue to be great for late-season fieldwork to advance. However, greater rainfall would still be beneficial for western production areas of the region. In the Northern Plains, little to no precipitation through at least the next seven days will be great for any remaining late-season fieldwork to advance. However, there remains an ongoing need for greater moisture in Montana.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.05 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 89 points to 65.12 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw a familiar pattern that has developed over the past few months: A short string of strong gains followed by solid selling pressure that kills the fledgling uptrend. Bulls need to step up and show fresh price strength to keep the uptrend alive. A rise in the U.S. dollar index to a three-month high today was also a bearish daily outside-market element for cotton futures. Rallying grain futures lately and record highs in U.S. stock index prices this week should help to keep a floor under the cotton futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said frost and freezes occurring in west Texas overnight may have ended the growing season for some areas, but not all. The impact of the cold was unlikely to be very great, although because of late planting and some milder than usual summer weather not all bolls are open unless the plants were chemically treated. Some of the late crop could experience boll lock as a result of the freezes; though the impact on total production should be very low if there is any. Rain in the Delta and southeastern states earlier this week disrupted some farming activity, but the impact on cotton quality should be relatively low. Drier weather will be quick to resume minimizing the impact. Southwestern U.S. cotton harvesting will advance well over the next 10 days due to warmer than usual temperatures and no rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 66.10 cents and then at 66.50 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at today’s low of 64.54 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.