Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.39 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw follow-through technical selling pressure early today after Friday’s bearish weekly low close but recouped much of the earlier losses by today’s close. Prices are still in a trading range bound by the December low of $4.41 3/4 and the December high of $4.52 1/4.
USDA today reported daily U.S. corn export sales of 150,320 MT of corn for delivery during 2025-26. USDA also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.583 MMT, down 157,903 MT from the previous week and in the middle of pre-report expectations which ranged from 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay corn regions will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks, with enough rain to favorably support crop development and maintain or increase soil moisture while fieldwork will be slowed. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais, where little rain is expected through most of the period with some important showers advertised for Sunday into next Monday. In Argentina, outside of rain today in and near Corrientes, little rain is expected through Thursday, allowing fieldwork to increase in many areas before nearly widespread rain Friday through next Monday and additional rain in northern and central Argentina Dec. 23-25 slows fieldwork while increasing soil moisture. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development while most areas dry down into Thursday with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short where stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls. Soil moisture is already short from La Pampa into San Luis and southwestern Cordoba and crop stress is likely to increase into Thursday before rain returns Friday. The period of wet weather Friday into next week should ensure most crops are left with adequate to favorable soil moisture with some possible exceptions in the southwest where rain may not be great enough to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.41 1/4 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.36 3/4 and then at $4.34 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 5 cents to $10.71 3/4, near mid-range and hit a seven-week low. January soybean meal gained $1.00 to $303.50, nearer the daily high. January soybean oil fell 59 points to 49.48 cents, nearer the session low and hit a six-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets today saw technical selling pressure as their prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. Spreaders were likely featured selling bean oil and buying meal today.
Also negative for beans today, NOPA’s November U.S. soybean crush slowed by more than expected after hitting an all-time high the previous month. NOPA members crushed 216.041 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 5.1% from the record 227.647 million bushels crushed in October. Still, the crush was up 11.8% from the same month a year ago and the largest-ever November crush. It was also the second-largest crush for any month on record. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of November 30 rose to a seven-month high of 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.9% from 1.305 billion pounds at the end of October and up 39.6% from the 1.084 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.
AgRural reported Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean plantings had reached 97% as of last Thursday, up three percentage points from the previous week. Rains were also reported to have reached nearly all planting areas.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina soybean regions over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southwestern Argentina is expected to dry out, but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a serious threat to production.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.20. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.80 and then at $10.90. First support is seen at $10.63 and then at $10.50.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $304.90 and then at last week’s high of $308.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $298.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.66 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.22 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.30 cents and then at 48.66 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.20 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a seven-week low. March HRW lost 6 cents to $5.12, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. March spring wheat futures closed 7 cents lower at $5.68 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat markets today saw technical selling pressure amid price downtrends firmly in place on the daily charts. The near-term chart postures for SRW and HRW remain bearish. News reports that there may be some progress regarding Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Berlin was also a negative for wheat prices, as any peace deal would likely mean more grain shipments coming out of the Black Sea region.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 488,025 MT, up 91,967 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said an arctic air mass advanced from Canada into the U.S. northern Plains and Midwest over the weekend. Sub-zero Fahrenheit temperatures were noted from the northern Plains into portions of the Midwest with the coldest conditions noted in Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas, Wisconsin and neighboring
areas. “Areas that experienced sub-zero readings were blanketed by snow and shielded winter crops from damage. Another round of bitter cold will evolve in Minnesota and neighboring areas Friday and this weekend, though no impacts to winter crops are expected since very few are produced in that region and snow will remain widespread,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.29 1/2 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at $5.15 and then at $5.08 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.20 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.10 1/2 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 11 points to 63.94 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild short covering featured today. Lower crude oil prices limited the upside in cotton today, as did sell-offs in the grain futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains have been good for late-season harvesting and routine field operations. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. eased long-term dryness for better field conditions in the spring. Any late-season harvesting left in the southeastern U.S. may be slow to be completed, but progress is expected. Freezes today will have no negative impact on unharvested crops.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.53 cents and then at 64.95 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.55 cents and then at 63.11
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.