Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3/4 cent to $4.23 1/4, nearer the daily high and closed at a three-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused to start the trading week, following two sessions of decent price gains. Bulls have made a strong recovery from a six-week low scored last week. Bulls are looking forward to corn harvest winding down and the declining commercial hedge selling pressure that goes with it.
USDA today reported good weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.318 million MT, compared to 1.210 million MT in last week’s report.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts expected the U.S. corn crop to be 59% harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast for the Midwest is wetter through the next 10 days than what was advertised late last week. Regular rounds of precipitation will cross the Midwest through Oct. 29, providing beneficial increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. “Fieldwork should still advance relatively well in most areas due to relatively dry soils in place and a lack of heavy rain in much of the region. Drier weather will resume Oct. 30-Nov. 3 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate.” Temperatures through the next week will be warmest today, when much of the region is warmer than normal before temperatures are not far from normal Tuesday into Saturday, with warmer- than-usual conditions next Sunday into next Monday, followed by another round of cooling Tuesday of next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls still have some momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.19 1/2 and then at $4.15.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 12 1/4 cents to $10.31 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high. December soybean meal rose $4.00 to $285.00, near the daily high and also hit a four-week high. December soybean oil rose 18 points to 51.31 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw good buying support as it appears the U.S. and China are trying to ratchet down their trade tensions ahead of next week’s summit meeting in Asia between Presidents Trump and Xi. Perceived bargain buying from the speculators as featured today, as well as some technical buying as November soybeans are starting to trend up.
USDA today reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 1.474 million MT, compared to 1.017 million MT in last week’s report.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts expected the U.S. soybean crop to be 74% harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Brazil during the weekend and that which lingers early this week will improve planting and emergence conditions. However, the precipitation was little too sporadic and light in many areas to offer a long-term improving trend. Drying this week and into the weekend will eventually slow germination, emergence and establishment once again. For those areas failing to get good rainfall, dryness may become a greater concern soon. Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.33 3/4 and then at $10.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.19 3/4 and then at $10.10.
December soybean meal bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls are working on starting a price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $285.80 and then at $288.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $280.30 and then at $277.00.
Bean oil bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are starting to trend up. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at Friday’s low of 50.35 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 1 cent to $5.04 3/4, nearer the session high. December HRW lost 1 1/2 cents to $4.90, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures were unchanged at $5.48 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets need a dose of fresh, bullish fundamental news to pull out of their tailspins. Recent rallies in the corn and soybean markets have limited selling pressure but winter wheat markets remain in near-term price downtrends that still favor the speculators playing the short sides.
USDA today reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 480,614 MT, compared to 447,531 MT in last week’s report.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts expected 76% of the U.S. winter wheat crop to be planted as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, conditions today through Wednesday will be great for late-season fieldwork due to dry weather and warmer-trending temperatures. A timely storm system is then expected for Thursday through Friday. This system is likely to be wetter than indicated in the previous week and should provide some needed rainfall that will benefit unirrigated winter crops. The rain will be greatest in east-central and southeastern production areas. Another weak weather system is possible in wheat areas Sunday and Monday; although, it will not produce nearly as much rain as that of this week and it will favor northern parts of the production region. Today will be quite windy with some gusts greater than 48 mph which could lead to blowing dust. The greatest potential for a dust storm is in northeastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. In the Northern Plains, some occasional shower activity in the next seven days is unlikely to have much of a negative impact on remaining late-season fieldwork. A larger, stronger storm system could then impact the region Oct. 27 – 29 and this is more likely to cause fieldwork delays. Topsoil moisture is favorable across almost the entire region. However, subsoil moisture is still lacking in Montana and greater precipitation in this part of the region would be beneficial. Today will also be quite windy, especially in Montana and much of the Dakotas, with some gusts higher than 48 mph.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.92 1/4 and then at $4.85.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.94 1/2 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 12 points to 64.16 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today paused after decent gains posted Friday that continued to suggest the bears are exhausted and that a near-term market bottom could be in place. Prices Friday also closed at a technically bullish weekly high close that also suggests the cotton market has put in a bottom. However, a drop in the crude oil market to a 4.5-month low today and a price downtrend in place in that market is a bearish outside-market element for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said last Friday was mostly dry and harvesting advanced well before light rain fell from much of West Texas into the southeastern Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma Saturday, followed by mostly dry and improving conditions for harvesting Sunday. Rainfall totals varied from a trace up to 0.10 inch with some northwestern and north-central parts of West Texas dry. Dry and favorable conditions for cotton maturation and harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks, with a few infrequent and mostly light showers in each region and better-organized rain Thursday into Friday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma that should cause mostly temporary interruptions to harvesting. Isolated to scattered and mostly light showers will occur most days into Saturday in parts of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas. Much of West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.35” of rain and locally more Thursday into Friday while scattered and light showers occur in the Panhandle, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart but just barely. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.78 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then of 63.46 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.