Corn
Price action: July corn fell 3/4 cent to $4.09 1/2, near the session low, while December futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $4.21.
Fundamental analysis: Fund sellers continued to take a page out of last year’s playbook, extending recent selling as first-notice day and USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports approach. While nearby futures held an inside range, new-crop corn futures edged to a new contract low for the second straight session.
In comparing last year’s price action to 2025–July futures sold off from May 13 to June 28 (June Acreage/Grain Stocks Report were released), notching an 85-cent selloff over the period, while the 2025, the selloff ensued after a high of $4.97 1/4 was scored on April 11, with a bottom forged, so far, at $4.08. Ironically, that marked an 89 1/4-cent decline over the period.
But, the downside may not be over if history repeats itself amid a continued fund purge in the wake of USDA’s data release on Monday. Though it could catalyze a short-covering run, given a more bullish tone. On average, though,analysts expect a modest increase in acres from the March Prospective Plantings Report. Odds certainly favor a higher number as the June Acreage figure has been higher than March 10 out of 15 years–though one major outlier was 2019, a year in which the Midwest faced persistent rains.
While the northern Corn Belt had near perfect conditions, the eastern Corn Belt and southern Midwest faced similar conditions to 2019, which hindered planting efforts. The looming question will be if producers up north planted more corn acres and how many acres were turned in as prevent plant due to excessive rains–a factor that will remain unknown until at least August.
Nevertheless, USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks data could throw a curveball–as low prices and a weak U.S. dollar have been demand-supportive.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export sales data for the week ended June 19, which showed net corn sales of 741,200 MT, which were down 18% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 305,500 MT during the week. Both figures were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates.
Technical analysis: July corn held an inside range, with initial support serving at this week’s low of $4.08, which is backed by support at $4.06 1/4. Bears undoubtedly have a firm grasp on the near-term technical advantage and are looking to breach support at the psychological $4.00 level, while bull efforts continue to be limited by resistance at the 10-, 20-, 40-, 200- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $4.26 1/2 to$4.67 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans slid 2 1/4 cents to $10.16 1/4 and closed nearer session lows. December soymeal slid $3.5 to $287.2, near session lows. December bean oil climbed 44 points to 52.76 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw some consolidation today after recent selling pressure. Pre-report positioning is likely to drive a lot of price action ahead of Monday’s key USDA reports. The persistent weakness in soymeal, which fell to fresh contract lows today, continues to weigh heavily on soybean futures. Spreaders remain pretty active in the soybean complex as the anticipation for higher bio-diesel production has supported soyoil prices over the past couple of weeks.
USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 402,900 MT for the week ended June 19, down 16% from the previous week but up 82% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 156,200 MT, which exceeded analysts’ expectations by modest margin. Sales were old-crop were above average, helping boost exports late in the marketing year.
Chinese firms have booked a deal for 30,000 MT of Argentine soymeal for July shipment, marking the country’s first such purchase since China granted import approval for the product in 2019, four trade sources told Reuters. The purchase appears to be a test case, if the soymeal is up to China importer standards, it is likely to be the first purchase of many. That could draw from U.S. demand at a time when the U.S. has a significant amount of soy meal that needs to be exported.
Technical analysis: November soybeans fell for the fifth consecutive session today. Bears now retain the technical advantage as prices closed on this month’s lows. Continued selling finds modest support at $10.14 1/4, which is quickly backed by support at $10.11 1/2, then the psychological $10.00 mark. Resistance comes in at $10.25 on a bounce, which is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $10.34 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.21, near the session low and hit a six-week low. July HRW wheat fell 6 cents to $5.18 1/4, near the daily low and hit a six-week low. September spring wheat futures slipped 2 1/2 cents to $6.25 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets have seen stronger commercial hedging pressure this week. Wheat futures prices also continue to be pulled down by eroding corn and soybean futures prices. Technical selling is also featured in wheat this week, as the near-term technical postures for SRW and HRW futures have quickly turned from bullish to bearish. Solid losses in the U.S. dollar index today that hit a 3.5-year low offered little support to the winter wheat markets, nor did improved risk appetite in the general marketplace.
USDA this morning reported wheat U.S. export sales of 255,200 MT for the week ended June 19, which were short of the expected range of 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
Traders are gearing up for Monday’s updated U.S. planted acreage report and the quarterly grain stocks report. These reports are considered to be among the most important USDA reports of the year. A Reuters survey of analysts showed they expect a modest rise in U.S. wheat stocks from the same time last year. Wheat traders will likely take direction from the corn market following Monday’s USDA data.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW regions conditions through the next 10 days to two weeks “will be mostly favorable with a good mix of rain and sunshine. There will be pockets of significant rain. However, enough sunshine and warmth should help balance this out. Due to the erratic nature of the rain, there could also be some pockets that miss out from receiving much.” In the U.S. northern Plains, conditions through the next 10 days to two weeks “will continue to be nearly ideal for the region, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. Montana will be a little drier than preferred in some areas, however, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid this week’s steep price downdrafts. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.31 1/2 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.15 and then at $5.06 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.51. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.00 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.27 1/2 and then at Wednesday’s high of $5.37 1/2. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.00 1/4.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures climbed 48 points to 68.80 cents and closed nearer session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures climbed to the highest mark since May 27 as December futures rose for the fifth consecutive session. Cotton prices rallying today despite a relatively bearish export sales report was impressive. Export sales for the week ended June 19 totaled 29,100 bales, down 64% from the previous week and 69% from the four-week average. Both shipments and sales continue to run well below historically normal for this time of year. Weakness in the U.S. dollar index was a big contributor for the strength seen in the cotton market today. The dollar fell to the lowest mark in over three years and continues in a long-term downtrend. The weaker dollar makes U.S. supplies more competitive on the world market. Rain in west Texas has been limited and will continue to be limited over the next week, says World Weather Inc. More moisture will be needed to help boost dryland crops. Meanwhile, conditions in the Delta are too wet, though recent warm temps and lack of precip has helped firm up the topsoil.
Technical analysis: December futures continue to exhibit robust strength, pushing prices well above the downtrend stemming from the late April peak. Bulls maintain a modest technical advantage, though gains stalled at 100-day moving average resistance today, which will remain a key pivot at 68.75 cents. Strength above that mark is backed by resistance at 69.00 cents then today’s high of 69.10 cents. Support comes in at 68.32 cents then the 40-day moving average at 68.13 cents on a reversal lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.