Corn
Price action: December corn futures closed steady at $3.97 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls are still working to stabilize prices following Tuesday’s surprisingly bearish USDA report. Bulls have managed to keep December futures prices above Tuesday’s contract low, which is a small victory.
USDA today reported daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. corn to South Korea and 132,000 MT to Spain during the 2025-26 marketing year. The agency reported weekly U.S. corn export sales reductions of 88,700 MT for 2024-25 were a marketing year low. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 2.048 MMT. Analysts had expected corn sales of 150,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said there is “very little concern” about Corn Belt weather following recent rain in and favorable soil moisture in the Midwest. There will be some net drying in the lower eastern Midwest and a few areas in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin through early next week. Some timely showers and thunderstorms will bring a little relief to the drier areas during mid-week next week and then drying will resume, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.11. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.98 1/2 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $3.92 and then at $3.90.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 15 3/4 cents to $10.28 1/2, near the daily low and hit a six-week high early on. September soybean meal fell $2.70 to $284.30, near the daily low and hit a six-week high early on. September soybean oil fell 140 points to 51.99 cents, near the daily low and hit a six-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw what is so far just routine profit-taking pressure today, following good gains posted Tuesday and Wednesday. Weaker corn and wheat futures markets this week also limited buying interest in the soy complex futures. Bulls need to step up and show price strength Friday to keep their newfound momentum.
USDA this morning reported weekly net U.S. soybean export sales reductions of 377,600 MT for 2024-25, a marketing year low. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 1.133 MMT, topping pre-report estimates.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for good crop development, with drier weather advertised for Aug. 21-28. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Wednesday and many areas that have recently dried down will see a bolstering of soil moisture with nearly all of the region left with enough subsoil moisture to support crop development through the end of the month.Warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures will be most common through the middle of next week with widespread, excessive heat not expected through the period.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.49 1/4 and then at $10.60. First support is seen at $10.25 and then at $10.15.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as a fledgling uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $270.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $280.20 and then at this week’s low of $275.60.
Bean oil bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 55.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 53.94 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.83 cents and then at 51.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.24 1/2, near mid-range and hit another contract low. December HRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.26, near mid-range and set a contract low. Spring wheat futures fell a nickel to $5.72.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure from the speculators featured today, as their near-term chart postures continue fully bearish. Weaker corn and soybean prices today also limited buying interest in wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 722,800 MT for 2025-26, down 2% from the previous week but up 14% from the four-week average. Sales were within the range of pre-report expectations from 400,000 to 850,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba recently has come too late for a big improvement in wheat production, although a few crops that were not drought stressed benefited. Some soft frost is possible in the northern Prairies Friday and Saturday mornings; although, no damage of significance is likely. U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is virtually complete and it is just beginning in the northern Plains. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Most of the wheat in Eastern Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future. Drier weather in the central and northeast parts of the European continent has been improving field working conditions, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.35 and then at this week’s high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.21 1/2 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.35 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.21 1/4 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 5 points to 67.68 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish in a sideways trading range that has been in place for two months. A higher U.S. dollar index somewhat limited buying in cotton futures today, but higher crude oil prices were a positive outside market to offset the firmer greenback.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 242,000 running bales (RB) for the 2025/2026 marketing year, primarily for Vietnam, Bangladesh and Turkey. Exports of 142,600 RB were primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather most often through much of the next two weeks and areas that received significant rain earlier this week will have enough soil moisture to support cotton development for a while, with stress to cotton in most other areas likely to increase as the remaining soil moisture is lost to evaporation. Some showers will occur on occasion, with the resulting rain not likely great enough induce more than brief improvements in soil moisture.The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through early next week and stress to cotton should rise, with a few showers before a beneficial increase in rain occurs Wednesday into Sun., Aug. 24, when much of the region receives at least some rain and sees temporary improvements for cotton development, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.50 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.41 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.