Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.21 3/4, near mid-range and hit a one-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market saw more profit-taking pressure today. Some technical selling was also featured as the near-term technical posture for corn is fading amid a price uptrend on the daily chart for December corn that has stalled out and is on the verge of being negated.
Corn bulls got no help from USDA today reporting daily U.S. corn sales of 320,068 MT to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.33 MMT during the week ended Sept. 18, down 183,941 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were mid-range of pre-report expectations ranging from 1.1 to 1.65 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will move through the Midwest this week, raising soil moisture in the driest areas of the south and east as well as a part of the Delta and Tennessee River Basin. The moisture boost comes too late for summer crops and it may disrupt some fieldwork briefly.
Corn traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The agency is expected to report U.S. corn in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday versus 67% in the same categories last week. U.S. corn harvest is seen at 13% complete as of Sunday versus 7% last week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.19 1/2 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 14 1/2 cents to $10.11, nearer the session low and hit a six-week low. December soybean meal fell $3.90 to $280.10, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. December soybean oil fell 93 points to 49.69 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures melted down today, led by technical selling as the near-term chart postures for soybeans, meal and bean oil have significantly deteriorated just recently.
Bearish news for the soy complex came today as Argentina said it will remove export taxes on all grains for over a month to boost the supply of dollars during that period, according to a government.
Fading U.S. soybean export prospects, including scant to no U.S. bean sales to China, continue to hamstring the soybean complex bulls. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 484,116 MT for the week ended Sept. 18, down 337,693 MT from the previous week and near the low end of pre-report estimates ranging from 400,000 to 845,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said moderate to heavy rain today into Wednesday from central Missouri to Ohio and Kentucky will temporarily stall fieldwork, while inducing additional relief from drought. Lighter rain will fall from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas where winter crop areas will also benefit from the moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur through most of the remainder of the next two weeks and fieldwork should quickly resume as the soil is dry enough where moderate to heavy rain is expected this week to absorb the rain without becoming excessively muddy. Totally dry weather is not expected and many areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 2-4 that will be beneficial for soil. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal through the middle of next week, with no risk of frost or freezes during that period.
Soybean traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The agency is expected to report U.S. soybeans in 62% good to excellent condition as of Sunday versus 63% in the same categories last week. U.S. soybean harvest is seen at 12% complete as of Sunday versus 5% last week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with the recent price downdraft. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.25 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.06 1/4 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $284.50 and then at $287.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $278.60 and then at $275.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 51.34 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.36 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 11 3/4 cents to $5.10 3/4, near the session low and hit a contract low. December HRW lost 5 cents to $5.02 1/4, near mid-range and hit a contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.64.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw their near-term price downtrends restarted, which further emboldened the speculative bears to play the short side. Lower corn and soybean prices also kept the wheat bulls on the sidelines today.
Upbeat USDA weekly U.S. wheat export inspections did not help the wheat bulls today. The agency reported 854,454 MT of sales for the week ended Sept. 18, up 98,058 MT from the previous week and well above the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks, favoring fieldwork and crop development. Canada’s Prairies will experience good drying conditions that will support quick harvest progress in the next week. Russia’s spring wheat harvest is advancing well while some winter wheat areas experience ongoing dryness. Greater rain is needed in parts of Ukraine and areas east to Kazakhstan. China’s winter wheat planting usually begins in late September and continues through October and into early November. Recent rain will bolster soil moisture for quick planting and emergence later this month, said the forecaster.
Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders look for U.S. winter wheat planted at 22% as of Sunday versus 11% last week. U.S. spring wheat harvested is seen at 97% complete as of Sunday compared to 94% last week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power as price downtrends on the daily chart have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.23 and then at $5.30. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.08 1/2 and then $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.19. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.97 1/2 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 7 points to 66.22 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls have lost steam quickly after hitting a three-week high at mid-week last week. Sell offs in the grain futures markets are spilling over into sympathy price pressure in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help expedite the development of cotton. Some growth retardant has been applied to a part of the crop to limit new development while supporting the ongoing development of established bolls. Some yields outside of the southwestern dryland fields should be good. Cotton in the Blacklands will be dry enough to support crop maturation and harvesting, although some showers will occur infrequently. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers as well. U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. Late-season boll sizes may be smaller than usual, but the fiber quality is likely above average this year. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this week. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks.
Cotton traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 67.84 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 67.04 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.11 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.