Corn producers: Hedge 2026 production... We advise corn hedgers to buy $4.80 December puts on 40% of anticipated 2026 production, bringing total hedges to 50%. Our fill was 32¢ on today’s close. We also advise cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of expected production to get to 30% forward priced. You should have 60% of 2025 production sold.
Soybean producers: Hedge 2026 production... We advise soybean hedgers to take advantage of the rally, buying $11.60 November puts on 40% of expected production, getting to 50% hedged for new-crop. Our fill was 60¢ on today’s close. We advice cash only marketers to sell 20% of anticipated production to get to 30% forward sold. You should have 70% of 2025-crop production sold.
Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 2 cents to $4.57 3/4, nearer the daily high after hitting a two-week low early on..
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today got some price-friendly USDA data. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was also supportive for corn, along with better risk appetite in the general marketplace.
Today’s highly anticipated USDA planting intentions survey showed U.S. corn planted area in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3.5 percent or 3.45 million acres from last year. Meantime, the agency’s quarterly grain stocks report showed U.S. corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.024 billion bu., coming in 88 million bushels lower than industry expectations. Stocks are up 9.7% from March 1 from a year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in some interior southern Brazil Safrinha corn production areas is expected to be eased in early April. That should offer some improvement production potential, although follow-up rain will be needed. Brazil’s center-west and northern center-south crop areas will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine favoring all Safrinha crops. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the south and heavy rain in central Buenos Aires during the weekend likely induced some flooding. Fieldwork may be on hold for a while as additional rain impacts southern and west-central parts of the nation this week.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart for May corn. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.62 and then at $4.66. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.51 1/4 and then at $4.49 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 11 1/4 cents to $11.71, nearer the daily high. May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $316.40, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil rose 41 points to 68.88 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures today saw a bullish USDA planting intentions number. The agency estimated U.S. soybean acres will rise to 84.7 million, up 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimated states. Meantime, the quarterly grain stocks report leaned a bit bearish, showing U.S. soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.104 billion bu., just 18 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and up 9.2% from March 1 of year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, most of the significant rain expected through this weekend will occur from Parana to eastern Sao Paulo into most of northern Brazil, where the moisture will help to maintain favorable conditions for most areas while improving conditions in the drier areas. Fieldwork will be slowed by the rain, but some farming activity should occur advance around the precipitation. Soil moisture is mostly short from southern Mato Grosso do Sul into western Parana. A timely round of rain will occur in southern Brazil and Paraguay next week inducing notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while rain extends into much of the remainder of Brazil. Favorable soil moisture in place in much of the country today along with rain through Monday will ensure favorable conditions for developing crops continue through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed and some areas see local flooding. In Argentina, northern regions will miss much of the rain through Friday and will see fieldwork advance well. A much drier weather pattern will occur Apr. 7-14 allowing for a resumption of fieldwork while soil conditions remain favorable for developing crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.56 and then at the March low of $11.45 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $320.00 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $312.30 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 69.91 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 67.55 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 9 1/4 cents to $6.16 1/4, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high. May HRW gained 9 1/4 cents to $6.35 1/2, nearer the session high, hit a 12-month high and closed at a technically bullish monthly and quarterly high close today. March spring wheat futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $6.58 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw a bullish U.S. planted acreage estimate from USDA. The agency estimated U.S. all wheat planted area for 2025 at 43.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 2025. If realized, this represents the second-lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Meantime, the quarterly grain stocks report also leaned very slightly bullish, showing U.S. wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.300 billion bu., 5 million bu. below trade expectations. Stocks are 4.9% above March 1 of last year.
World Weather Inc. today said hot weather in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas last week and that expected early this week will not bode well for crops already injured by extreme cold in January and mid-March. A cool and rainy period of weather is needed immediately to support new tillering, but time may soon run out for that. Showers of a limited nature are possible in some areas during early April; though relief will be quite restricted for a while – at least in the high Plains region. Most of the U.S. Midwest wheat is still rated favorably, despite recent frost and freeze injury. Meantime, snow-free conditions are present in Ukraine and Russia’s southern region, where warming this month should set the stage for some early season fieldwork and winter crop development. Other areas to the north from the middle Volga Basin to the Ural Mountains are still buried in snow and will see a steady rate of melting this week inducing some significant runoff and local flooding. April may trend wetter in the western CIS and will be closely monitored. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are either good or improving and the same is suspected in the Middle East. However, some local flooding in the Middle East recently may have induced a few pockets of damage.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.25 and then at $6.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.05 1/4 and then at $6.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.48 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at this week’s low of $6.21 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 19 points to 70.00 cents, near the session low and hit an eight-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls were out of the gate strong early this morning, but a bearish USDA planting intentions number halted the bulls in their tracks. Today’s USDA planting intentions report showed all U.S. cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.51 million acres, up 4 percent from 2025. American Pima area is estimated at 130,000 acres, down 8 percent from 2025. Acres in Texas are expected to rise 199,000 acres to 5.52 million acres.
A weaker U.S. dollar index and much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace today did limit the downside in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting and establishment. Rain potential will improve during early April with next week looking best for a first round of rain. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell earlier this month. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. West Texas precipitation frequency and intensity may improve during the month of April, but it will be slow to evolve. Timely rain occurred earlier this year in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. However, soil moisture is still low and expected to decline additionally from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama to North Carolina for a little while longer. Some timely rain will be needed later this spring to ensure the best environment for planting, emergence and establishment and early indications suggest the Delta will trend wetter later this week.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 72.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 71.38 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 69.40 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.