Corn
Price action: December corn fell 11 1/4 cents to $4.30 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 3 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures sold off following today’s November USDA supply and demand report. The agency cut its U.S. corn crop estimate 62 million bu. from the September report. The average yield declined 0.7 bu. to 186.0 bu. per acre, though still 6.7 bu. above last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 90.047 million acres. USDA matched the Sept. 30 U.S. figure for 2024-25 ending stocks and increased total U.S. supplies by 144 million bu. USDA did increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bu. to a record-breaking 3.075 billion bushels. Global corn carryover was pegged by USDA at 291.7 MMT for 2024-25, up 7.5 MMT from September; and at 281.3 MMT for 2025-26, down 60,000 MT.
Today’s selling pressure did not do any significant chart damage but the bulls do not want to see follow-through selling pressure on Monday that could negate the price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures.
30-day outlook: Focus of traders is turning more to growing weather in South American corn regions. World Weather Inc. today said rain has been delayed for portions of northern Brazil since Thursday’s forecast and many areas from east-central and southeastern Mato Grosso to central and southern Goias will see little rain through next Thursday while the remainder of northern Brazil is still expected to see greater rain starting next Tuesday. Western into central Mato Grosso will be wettest through Monday and will see rain today and Monday. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance around the precipitation while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development with frequent rain in Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul through Monday. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around two rounds of organized rain through the next week that will favor central and northern areas with rain infrequent and often light Nov. 22-28. Showers Nov. 22-28 should impact parts of the region and will slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed soon across these areas and in a growing part of western Argentina.
90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn, as confirmed with today’s USDA data, should at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months. The resumption of USDA export sales data will be welcomed by corn traders. More trade deals being inked between the U.S. and other countries should also improve global demand for U.S. corn.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 22 1/2 cents to $11.24 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week up 7 1/2 cents. December soybean meal lost $5.90 to $322.50, near the daily low and on the week up $4.40. December bean oil fell 10 points to 50.15 cents, nearer the session low and for the week up 47 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets were hit by profit-taking following recent gains and by selling pressure in the corn and wheat futures markets. Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report for November showed the agency reduced its U.S. soybean production estimate by 48 million bu. from the previous report. The U.S. average yield declined half a bushel to 53.0 bu. per acre, though still up 2.3 bu. from last year. Harvested area was unchanged at 80.313 million acres. The agency adjusted U.S. soybean ending stocks to match the Sept. 30 figure. The cut to carry-in and modest decline in U.S. production led to a 61 million-bu. cut to total supplies. USDA left its domestic demand estimates unchanged at 2.555 billion bu. for crush and 110 million bu. for feed & residual, though cut exports 50 million bu. to 1.635 million bushels.
No significant chart damage was inflicted to soybean and meal futures markets today. However, the bulls need to step up and prevent follow-through selling pressure early next week, which could produce chart damage that would begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are beginning to focus more on soybean planting and growing conditions in South America. A favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be erratic leaving subsoil moisture low in pockets for the next five to seven days. There is potential for increasing rainfall during the latter part of next week through the following weekend.
90-day outlook: It’s been two weeks since the U.S.-China trade truce and soybean traders are still trying to figure out how much Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will be coming in the months ahead. China officials this week danced around any specific U.S. soybean numbers they committed to buy. However, recent reports suggest China is presently flush with soybean stocks, which does not bode well for the U.S. soybean purchase amounts from China that were touted by the Trump administration after the trade truce was announced.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.27 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 1/2 a cent. December HRW wheat lost 10 1/2 cents to $5.15 1/4, near the daily low and down 4 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures fell 5 cents to $5.64 3/4 , near the daily low but for the week was up 7 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in December SRW and HRW wheat futures, including bearish “outside days” down on the daily bar charts today, set the table for follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week.
USDA today estimated U.S. wheat carryover up 57 million bu. from the September report. The agency raised total U.S. wheat supplies 57 million bu. with production up. On the demand side, USDA left total use unchanged from September at 2.054 billion bu. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.00, down a dime from September.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western high Plains. Rain is expected to increase during the latter part of next week into the following weekend. Recent moisture in the Midwest was light and yet welcome for winter crop establishment in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Additional moisture would be welcome throughout the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin and some of that is expected during the second half of next week through the following weekend. Meantime, snow cover in Canada’s Prairies and the far northern U.S. Plains has melted with the return of warmer weather. Precipitation will be limited through early next week and a boost in moisture is needed to improve soil moisture prior to the winter freeze up of the ground. Wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s southern region and western Kazakhstan has improved this autumn. Cooling during the next couple of weeks will begin pushing crops into dormancy. Northern production areas are already experiencing semi-dormancy. Snow will be needed this winter to protect dormant crops from any harsh weather that may evolve.
90-day outlook: Wheat traders will be closely examining weekly USDA export sales data that will resume soon, now that the U.S. government is open. Global demand for U.S. wheat will need to continue to improve in the coming months in order for the futures markets to sustain price uptrends. New U.S. trade deals with its world counterparts may help to improve global demand for U.S. wheat.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 41 points to 62.49 cents, nearer the session low, hit a new contract low, and for the week down 113 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market’s two-week-old price downdraft and new for-the-move lows have the speculative technical traders confident and they are likely to continue to play the short side in the near term. Part of the selling pressure in cotton today came amid solid losses in the grain futures markets today.
Today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report also leaned price-bearish. The report showed U.S. cotton production at 14.115 million bales; the trade expected 13.52 million bales and compares to 13.22 million bales in September and 14.413 million bales in 2024. U.S. cotton carryover increased by 700,000 bales from the September report. Total U.S. supplies rose 890,000 bales from September due to the larger crop. USDA raised total use 200,000 bales due to a 200,000-bale boost to exports (which now stand at 12.2 million bales). USDA also cut unaccounted use 10,000 bales to -80,000 bales. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 62 cents, down from 64 cents in September.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas and Oklahoma, much of the next two weeks will be dry and fieldwork should advance well around rain in much of the region next Tuesday into Thursday, which may discolor some cotton, with drier weather during the remainder of the period likely sufficient to allow some cotton to be bleached white. Much of western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.75” of rain and locally more Tuesday into Thursday, with some heavier totals in the east and some dry areas in the west. Rain will extend to the Blacklands and Coastal Bend where totals of 0.60-2.0” and locally more will be common with up to 0.75” of rain and locally more in South Texas. Another round of precipitation will occur Nov. 24-26 with the Blacklands into the Coastal Bend and South Texas seeing much of the precipitation, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: The general marketplace late this week heard some monetary-policy-hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials that called into question whether the FOMC will make a U.S. rate-cut on Dec. 10. That turned the stock market wobbly, which if such continues in the coming weeks could dent consumer confidence and their demand for apparel heading into the holiday gift-buying season. That would be a bearish scenario for cotton futures market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.