Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.25 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw early price strength on some technical buying and good weekly export sales. However, gains in corn were then limited by a solidly higher U.S. dollar index today, following an upbeat U.S. GDP report this morning.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.9 million MT for the week ended Sept. 18, which topped analysts’ pre-report range of 1.0 million to 1.8 million MT.
S& P Global reported India is expected to begin exporting ethanol as surplus sugar and grain production push above domestic blending requirements, citing transport minister Nitin Gadkari from a statement on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said a drier weather pattern will occur across the Midwest through the next two weeks and fieldwork should quickly resume. Totally dry weather is not expected and many areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 2-5.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out but is still barely alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.28 1/4 and then at $4.31 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 3 1/4 cents to $10.12 1/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal fell $2.90 to $273.20, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December soybean oil rose 43 points to 50.27 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market could not hold its early gains today and saw some selling pressure emerge following a stronger U.S. GDP report that pushed the U.S. dollar index sharply up.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 724,500 MT for the week ended Sept. 18, which were near the low end of the expected pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Importers in China have expanded soybean purchases to at least 35 cargoes, up from an earlier tally of 20 shipments, according to a Bloomberg report. Argentina’s move to eliminate export taxes through Oct. 31 or until the country raised $7 billion has been fulfilled, between Chinese soybean purchases and record soyoil purchases from India.
World Weather Inc. today said a drier weather pattern will occur across the Midwest through the next two weeks and fieldwork should quickly resume as the soil was dry enough before moderate to heavy rain fell this week to absorb the rain without becoming excessively muddy. Totally dry weather is not expected and many areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 2-5 that will be beneficial for soils. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal into late next week, with no risk of frost or freezes during that period with some cooling the following weekend.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish flag or pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.20 and then at this week’s high of $10.25. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.05 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $285.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $277.60 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $272.60 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 51.34 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 48.89 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 7 1/2 cents to $5.27, near the session high. December HRW gained 5 1/2 cents to $5.12 1/4, near the daily high. Spring wheat futures climbed 5 1/4 cents to $5.73.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more short covering today as the bulls brushed aside the grains-negative outside-market that saw the U.S. dollar index post solid gains. Bullish weekly high closes in the winter wheat futures markets on Friday would be one clue that market bottoms are in place.
USDA this morning reported better weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 539,800 MT for the week ended Sept. 18, up 43% from the previous week and 37% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
Australia is on track to reap its third largest wheat harvest, according to a poll of analysts. The forecast of 35.3 MMT exceeds year ago production of 34.1 MMT and the five-year average of 33.8 MMT, but below the record of 40.5 MMT harvested in 2022-23.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW country, mostly dry weather with unusually warm temperatures in the next seven days “will be ideal for fieldwork. Soil moisture is favorable from recent rainfall outside of central and southeastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas and this will be good for quick seed germination and satisfactory emergence of recently planted winter wheat.” In the Northern Plains, limited rainfall with above- to well-above average temperatures will continue to be ideal for aggressive fieldwork and harvest advancement. There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly after Sunday, with limited coverage. Conditions will likely be mostly favorable for fieldwork advancement in the second week of the outlook, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are in place on the daily charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 3/4 and then at $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.18 1/4 and then the contract low of $5.07 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.24. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.05 3/4 and then at the contract low of $4.97 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 11 points to 66.28 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a nearly three-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market bulls were somewhat squelched today by strong gains in the U.S. dollar index, following a better-than-expected U.S. GDP report. Also holding back the cotton bulls today was a sell off in the U.S. stock market amid keener risk aversion in the marketplace as prospects are high that the U.S. government will shut down next week.
USDA today reported weekly export sales of U.S. cotton totaling 86,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 54 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India, Turkey and Bangladesh and were offset by reductions for Pakistan and Peru. Exports of 137,200 RB were up 14 percent from the previous week and up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, India and Bangladesh.
World Weather Inc. today said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help expedite the development of cotton. Weather in the Blacklands will be dry enough to support crop maturation and harvesting, although some showers will occur infrequently. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers as well. U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. Late-season boll sizes may be smaller than usual, but the fiber quality is likely above average this year. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this week. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, although the Carolinas will see more generalized rain that may discolor some open boll cotton.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 67.84 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 66.69 cents and then at this week’s high of 67.02 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.03 cents and then at 65.80 cents.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.