Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.35 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw technical buying interest from speculators amid an overall near-term chart posture that favors the bulls. Improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace this week is supporting corn. The U.S. government is on the verge of reopening. That would mean a resumption of the flow of USDA economic data.
Trading in the grain futures may be more subdued until Friday’s USDA supply and demand report, which is the first major USDA data point in over a month. A survey of analysts by Bloomberg predicted USDA would lower its average corn yield estimate to 184 bushels an acre from 186.7 bushels an acre in September, bringing its production estimate down to 16.566 billion bushels from 16.814 billion.
World Weather Inc. today said northern Brazil will see a mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks and eventually improvements in soil moisture and conditions for planting, germination, establishment and development. Eastern Mato Grosso into Goias and Bahia, central and northern Minas Gerais, and Espirito Santo will see a poor distribution of significant rain through Monday. Planting should be aggressive in these areas in anticipation of frequent rain starting Tuesday in eastern areas and Wednesday in western areas and continuing through Nov. 26. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rain through Monday with frequent rain in Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul before shower activity diminishes Tuesday through Nov. 26. In Argentina, field work will advance well through the next two weeks around a few rounds of rain through Sunday that will favor northern areas before rain is infrequent and often light Monday through Nov. 26. After recent rain much of the country should have enough soil moisture to support crop development into at least next week, with greater rain likely needed soon in many western areas where a full restoration of soil moisture has not occurred.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.37. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.18. First resistance is seen at $4.37 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.31 and then at $4.26.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 6 1/2 cents to $11.33 3/4, near the session high. December soybean meal rose $4.10 to $321.00, near the daily high. December soybean oil fell 48 points to 50.62 cents, nearer the daily low after hitting a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw fresh speculator buying interest as their near-term technical postures remain firmly bullish. Spreaders today were featured buying meal and selling bean oil futures. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace this week is also price-friendly for soybeans, as U.S. lawmakers are very close to reopening the federal government.
Soybean and meal traders are mostly brushing aside a lack of follow-through purchases of U.S. soybeans by China following China’s booking of cargoes around the Oct. 30 summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Reports also said China presently has plentiful stockpiles of soybeans.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, pegged the soybean yield at 53.1 bushels per acre, down from USDA’s 53.5 bushel an acre estimate in September. Production is seen at 4.271 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 million bushels.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center west rainfall will be erratic leaving subsoil moisture low in pockets. Dryness will also be a concern for the northeastern production areas for a while.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.35 3/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.18 1/2 and then at last Friday’s low of $11.08.
December soybean meal bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $304.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.30 and then at last week’s high of $325.20. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at last week’s low of $310.50.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the October high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.58 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW closed steady at $5.36, near the daily high. December HRW rose 1 3/4 cents to $5.25 1/2, near the session high. December spring wheat futures rose a 1/4 cent to $5.69 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw a nice rebound from solid overnight losses. Firmer corn and soybean futures prices today also limited selling pressure in the winter wheat futures markets. U.S. lawmakers are very close to reopening the federal government, which is also price-friendly for the grain markets as it takes away the uncertainty of the dearth of USDA data.
Wheat traders are awaiting this Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed they expect, on average, 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks of 869 million bushels versus 844 million bushels in USDA’s September report. The 2025-26 world wheat ending stocks are pegged by the analysts at 265.9 million MT versus 264.1 million MT in USDA’s September report.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western high Plains. Moisture in the Midwest during the weekend was light and yet welcome for winter crop establishment in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Additional moisture would be welcome throughout the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin and some will next week. Cold weather in Canada and the U.S. recently should not have had a negative impact on wheat. Warming in the coming week will continue to support improved establishment in areas that have favorable moisture. Snow cover will melt from the northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has improved. Cooling during the next couple of weeks will begin pushing crops into dormancy. Northern production areas are already experiencing semi-dormancy. Snow will be needed this winter to protect dormant crops from any harsh weather that may evolve, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.26 1/4 and then at $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.16 1/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 58 points to 63.30 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw technical selling pressure as the near-term charts remain fully bearish. Solid losses in the crude oil futures market today also weighed on cotton futures.
Cotton traders are looking forward to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report for November. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the forecasting, on average, U.S. production of 13.52 million bales versus the agency’s September report showing U.S. production of 13.22 million bales. U.S. exports are forecast at 12.08 million bales versus 12.00 million forecast in the USDA September report. U.S. ending stocks are seen by the analysts at 3.76 million bales versus 3.60 million in the USDA September report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas much of the next two weeks will be dry and fieldwork should advance well around a few infrequent showers and rain in much of the region Nov. 19-21 that may discolor some cotton. Drier weather during the remainder of the period will likely be sufficient to allow some cotton to be bleached white. Much of western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma and the Blacklands will receive up to 0.65” of rain and locally more Nov. 19-21, with rain extending to the Blacklands and Coastal Bend where totals of 0.40-1.60” and locally more will be common with up to 0.75” and locally more in South Texas.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the October high of 66.10 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 63.99 cents and then at this week’s high of 64.59 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 62.86 cents and then at 62.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.