Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.21 3/4, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators. Still, commercial hedge selling as the corn harvest is in full swing is limiting buying interest in corn. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a daily negative outside market for the grains.
Brazil’s center-south first corn planting was estimated to be 40% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather last Friday into Saturday “allowed for aggressive harvesting with similar conditions in many areas Sunday, when cooler air arrived in the northwest and rain fell on portions of the western Corn Belt.” Today’s forecast is wetter than what was advertised late last week and moderate to heavy rain will impact areas near and south of the Ohio River today into Tuesday and likely some areas from the southwestern Corn Belt to the Great Lakes region Oct. 14-17. “Fieldwork will be interrupted in these areas, but the soil is dry enough to absorb the rain without becoming saturated or excessively muddy and delays to farming activity should be temporary,” said the forecaster.
While no weekly crop progress reports are released by USDA during the government shutdown, analysts are still estimating weekly progress. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows they expected the U.S. corn harvest 31% complete as of Sunday, which compares with18% done last week and 30% complete last year at the same time. The U.S. corn crop condition is rated by analysts at 65% good to excellent, compared to 66% last week and 64% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.22 3/4 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1/4 cent to $10.17 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal fell $1.50 to $277.10, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil rose 33 points to 50.38 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean complex saw some chart consolidation today, with buying interest limited by a higher U.S. dollar index to start the trading week. Still, a good recovery in the meal futures market late last week suggests market bottoms in meal and beans may be in place. However, commercial hedge pressure as the U.S. soybean harvest is in high gear will likely keep any price rallies in the soy complex futures modest.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will continue good this week, but rain frequency next week will slow field progress. South America weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center west and center south Brazil and some of that will evolve next week, said the forecaster.
Brazil’s soybean planting efforts advanced to 9% complete as of last Thursday, marking the second highest level for the date, according to AgRural.
While no weekly crop progress reports are released by USDA during the government shutdown, analysts are still estimating weekly progress. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows they expected the U.S. soybean harvest 38% complete as of Sunday, which compares with19% done last week and 47% complete last year at the same time. The U.S. soybean crop condition is rated by analysts at 62% good to excellent, compared to 62% last week and 63% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.28 3/4 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at $10.08 1/4 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $282.00 and then at $285.00. First support is seen at $275.00 and then at $272.20.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 49.20 cents and then at the September low of 48.89 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.12 3/4, near the daily low. December HRW lost 1 1/2 cents to $4.95 1/2, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.56 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw mild technical selling pressure today. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a negative outside market for wheat futures to start the trading week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country rainfall this week will be mostly limited to an area from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles northeast through central Kansas. The rain will be good for increasing topsoil moisture to help support newly planted winter wheat. Subsoil moisture remains good in most areas. However, topsoil moisture has significantly declined in the last 10 days as a result of unusually dry and warm conditions, raising the need for more rain. There is potential for even greater rainfall in the second week of the outlook but this will largely depend on the tropics and a possible disturbance coming into the region from the southwest. In the Northern Plains, dry weather this week with warmer-trending temperatures will be nearly ideal for fieldwork to advance after the recent storm system that impacted the region this past weekend. The next storm system will likely begin to affect the region with some shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday. Hard freezes in Montana and western and north-central North Dakota this morning ended the growing season for those areas that failed to see such conditions earlier this season, said World Weather.
While no weekly crop progress reports are released by USDA during the government shutdown, analysts are still estimating weekly progress. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows they expected the U.S. winter wheat planted at 50% complete as of Sunday, which compares with 34% done last week and 51% complete last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.08 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 16 points to 65.14 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market continues to languish at lower price levels. Bulls remain very timid as the near-term technical posture for cotton is firmly bearish. A higher U.S. dollar index was also a bearish “outside-market” factor for the cotton market today.
World Weather Inc. today said not much significant rain is expected in the southern U.S. Plains during the next 10 days, allowing more harvest progress to be made and supporting the normal development and maturation of crops in West Texas. U.S. Delta and southeastern crops will experience a mix of rain and sunshine during the next week to 10 days, slowing fieldwork infrequently. The precipitation is not likely to have much impact on cotton fiber quality. Most of the southwestern U.S. will experience good weather for maturation and harvesting in the coming week.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 64.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.62 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.70 cents and then at the April low of 64.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.