Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 11 1/2 cents to $4.68 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw strong follow-through selling pressure today following losses on Tuesday. A big drop in crude oil prices today, due to the apparent better prospects for the U.S.-Iran war ending, spooked most raw commodity markets bulls, including in the grains. Some near-term technical damage has been inflicted in corn this week.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks will slow planting, but there will be breaks in the precipitation that should allow for fieldwork to advance well overall with western areas seeing the least rain. Soil moisture is marginal to short from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where greater rain is needed. Frost and freezes will occur in a large part of the northern and portions of the central and southwestern Corn Belt into Friday with additional frost and freezes in some northwestern locations through the middle of next week. Some corn and soybeans should have emerged since the last round of freezes and some of these crops may be damaged by the cold with these instances likely rare as much of the damaging cold should be confined to areas with few summer crops emerged. Where crops have emerged burning back of vegetative development is most likely with a few local exceptions where in colder areas where crops have emerged and more significant damage is possible.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A big and bearish double-top reversal pattern is forming on the daily bar chart for July corn. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.50. First resistance is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.67 1/2 and then at $4.60.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans lost 16 3/4 cents to $11.94 3/4, nearer the daily low. July soybean meal fell $3.10 to $317.30, near the daily low. July soybean oil lost 189 points to 75.02 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex today saw selling pressure from the big drop in crude oil prices that spooked much of the raw commodity sector. Profit taking and weak long liquidation were featured in soybeans and bean oil today.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork. The wetter Midwest conditions should shift northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late next week and into mid-month.
Soy complex traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA exports sales report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bean bulls need to step up and show power yet this week, to keep the uptrend alive. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.26 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at $11.85 and then at $11.75.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $323.60 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 76.99 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 74.30 cents and then at 73.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 10 1/2 cents to $6.17 1/4, near mid-range. July HRW lost 3 cents to $6.87, nearer the daily high. July spring wheat futures fell 4 cents to $6.92, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation following recent gains. The big drop in crude oil prices today spilled over into selling pressure in much of the raw commodity sector, including the grains.
A group of Oklahoma crop experts projected Oklahoma’s 2026 winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels on Tuesday, with an average yield of 23.11 bushels per acre, following an annual tour of the state, according to Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. USDA is scheduled to release its first production forecasts for the U.S. 2026 winter wheat harvest on May 12.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country a beneficial precipitation event will gradually wind down today. Additional wet snow from this event in eastern Colorado and far western Kansas could stress some livestock, but this will be short-lived since the snow will melt quickly and the unusually cold air will be fast to exit. Some other shower and thunderstorm activity in the next seven days will occur mainly in eastern production areas. A hard freeze will also still occur in the west Thursday morning. Snow cover will offer some protection. However, the head of most wheat crops will extend far beyond the snow level leaving crops in the boot and heading stage vulnerable to damage.
Wheat traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA exports sales report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.71 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.28 1/4 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.06 3/4 and then at $6.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.18 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.94 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.75 and then at today’s low of $6.68.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 75 points to 84.05 cents and nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw some profit-taking pressure from recent gains, and also some selling related to the big drop in crude oil prices today. However, selling interest was limited in cotton today as the U.S. stock indexes soared to record highs on hopes of a soon ending to the U.S.-Iran war.
World Weather Inc. today said most areas in the southern Plains remained dry and saw good planting progress Tuesday, with light rain and minimal impacts on soil moisture or fieldwork from some northwestern parts of west Texas into the western Panhandle. Rain in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be too infrequent and light during the next two weeks to cause significant planting delays or to induce notable increases in soil moisture leaving most dryland areas in need of rain to improve conditions for planting, germination, and establishment with some exceptions in the southwest. Rain late last week increased soil moisture in southwestern and south-central parts of West Texas and dryland cotton there should have enough soil moisture to at least germinate, but the crop may run out of moisture soon without additional rain. Much of the northern Panhandle will receive up to 0.15” of rain and locally more today with at least some rain in a large part of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma May 13-14. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see light showers today before rain returns Thursday and continues into Saturday with some additional rain likely May 13-16.
Cotton traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA exports sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 84.90 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 82.16 cents and then at 81.79 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.