Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 1/2 cent to $4.27 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 4 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in December corn futures will put the bulls on the defensive early next week. A price uptrend on the daily chart may be rolling over and bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive.
Next Friday’s (Nov. 14) crop production and supply and demand updates from USDA will be the weekly highlight for the grain futures markets. Traders have had to more closely monitor spreads and basis levels to get a better view of the markets.
30-day outlook: Focus of corn traders is turning more to growing weather in South America corn regions. World Weather Inc. today said central and northern Brazil will see increasing rain and improvements in soil moisture and conditions for planting, germination, establishment, and development of crops through the next two weeks, while there should be adequate breaks between rounds of rain to allow for some fieldwork to advance. Rain will be often light into Saturday before rain becomes better organized and heavier starting Sunday and especially Wednesday into the following Sunday. Much of southern Brazil and Paraguay will also see regular rain and favorable conditions for crops through the next two weeks with some fieldwork likely to advance between rounds of rain.
There are still rumblings U.S. lawmakers may reach an agreement to reopen the federal government soon. That would begin to give grain traders the much-needed fundamental data to drive daily price action. The government reopening would likely be a bit price-friendly for the grains because of the reduced uncertainty.
90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn continues to be the ace in the hole for corn market bulls. Many producers have held off on marketing their crops for better price levels. A resumption of USDA export sales and inspections data will be welcomed by corn traders.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 9 1/2 cents to $11.17, near the daily high and for the week up 1 3/4 cents. December soybean meal rose $4.40 to $317.10, near the daily high and on the week down $4.50. December bean oil rose 33 points to 49.68 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 100 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures bulls showed rebounding price strength to end the trading week, which is important given the solid losses posted Thursday. The bulls now have a bit of momentum on their side heading into trading next week. Technicals remain bullish for beans and meal as prices are still in uptrends on the daily bar charts.
Although the U.S. government shutdown continues to drag on, USDA will release its supply and demand report next Friday, Nov. 14. The data will include objective yield data. We wouldn’t be surprised if traders next week mostly paused in anticipation of the fresh USDA data, though weather conditions in South America soybean regions are becoming an increasing focus
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are beginning to focus more on soybean planting and growing conditions in South America. Argentine farmers have begun planting their fields with soybeans for the 2025-26 season. Most fields see “optimal” surface moisture conditions, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. There is need for greater rain in portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil and some of that need will be fulfilled in the next couple of weeks. However, subsoil moisture will remain low in northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Mato Grosso and southwestern Goias.
90-day outlook: Soybean traders are still trying to gauge specifically how much Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has been and will be coming in the months ahead, following the recent U.S.-China thaw in trade relations. Fresh economic data from USDA in the coming weeks, or sooner, as the U.S. government hopefully reopens soon, will be a main fundamental topic for soybean traders in the next few months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.27 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 6 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 3 cents to $5.19 1/4, nearer the daily low and down 5 1/4 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures gained 1 cent to $5.58, nearer to the daily low. For the week spring wheat was up 5 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s losses, including technically bearish weekly low closes in December SRW and HRW, set the stage for follow-through technical selling pressure early next week. The bulls need to show fresh strength early next week. If they can’t, the speculator bears will gain confidence that near-term market tops are in place and will likely be more aggressive sellers.
Next Friday’s (Nov. 14) crop production and supply and demand updates from USDA will be the weekly highlight for the grain futures markets. Traders have had to more closely monitor spreads and basis levels to get a better view of the markets.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western high Plains and in northern portions of the Midwest production region. Moisture is also needed in the Pacific Northwest, although none of this is of much concern. Canada’s eastern Prairies are plenty wet, while a boost in precipitation and soil moisture is needed in the central and southwestern Prairies to improve winter crop development potential in the spring. Neighboring areas of Montana might also benefit from some additional moisture. Most of these areas in Canada and the northern U.S. Plains will experience some bitter cold temperatures this weekend pushing crops into dormancy if they have not already done so. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has improved. Cooling during the next couple of weeks will begin pushing crops into dormancy. China’s winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment may not have advanced very well this year due to frequent wet weather in late September and early October. Weather has since improved greatly allowing some fieldwork and better establishment to take place. Some production decline might result if too much farm land was flooded earlier in the season.
90-day outlook: The recent news that China has purchased some U.S. wheat gave a lift to wheat futures prices. Global demand for U.S. wheat will need to continue to improve in the coming months in order for the futures markets to sustain price uptrends. When the U.S. government reopens wheat traders will be looking forward to digesting the resumption of supply and demand data.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 92 points to 63.62 cents, near the session low and for the week down 192 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market bulls laid an egg this week, allowing today’s technically bearish weekly low close that sets the table for follow-through, chart-based selling from the speculators early next week. Recent price history shows fledgling price uptrends in cotton futures, like the one that was just negated by today’s price action, tend to fizzle out after only a few weeks.
Next Friday’s (Nov. 14) crop production and supply and demand updates from USDA will be the weekly highlight for the cotton futures market.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. cotton harvest conditions have been mostly good in southern Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and across Texas. Fieldwork has been a little slow recently in parts of the Delta and the remaining southeastern states, but restricted precipitation in the next ten days will be good for ongoing fieldwork. California and Arizona rainfall advertised in Wednesday’s forecast model runs was removed overnight keeping the outlook for harvest progress looking very good at least until Nov. 20.
90-day outlook: At least part of the selling pressure in the cotton futures market today came from the late-week sell off in the U.S. stock indexes. The stock market has turned wobbly, which if such continues in the coming weeks could dent consumer demand for apparel heading into the holiday buying season. That would be a bearish scenario for cotton futures market.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.