Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $4.29 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw mild buying interest amid better risk appetite in the general marketplace on notions the U.S. government may reopen soon and with that a resumption of the flow of USDA economic data. Trading may be more subdued this week, ahead of Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn inspections of 1.425 MMT for the week ended Nov. 6, down 287,196 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 2.3 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said central and northern Brazil will see a mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks and eventually improvements in soil moisture and conditions for planting, germination and establishment. Some areas will likely miss out on significant rain for another week to 10 days. Eastern Mato Grosso into southern Goias and a large part of Bahia, Minas Gerais, and Espirito Santo will see a poor distribution of significant rain through early next week before rain increases Nov. 19-24 and notable improvements in soil moisture likely result. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rain and favorable conditions for crops through the next two weeks with some fieldwork likely to advance between rounds of rain. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around a few rounds of rain during the next week that will favor northern areas before rain is infrequent and often light Nov. 17-24. After rain during the past weekend and additional rain during the next week, much of the country should have enough soil moisture to support crop development with the drier areas in central and northern Cordoba are not likely to have enough soil moisture to prevent the region from having short soil moisture return next week. Much of western Argentina will be in need of rain during the last week of the month while soil moisture should still be supportive of crop development in eastern Argentina where a boost in rai will be needed soon, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures appears to have rolled over. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.37. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.18. First resistance is seen at $4.33 and then at $4.37. First support is seen at $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 13 cents to $11.30, near the session high. December soybean meal gained $2.90 to $320.00, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil rose 90 points to 50.58 cents, near the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures today saw buying interest featured amid better risk appetite in the general marketplace as U.S. lawmakers appear to be getting closer to a deal to reopen the federal government after a more-than-40-day shutdown. Chart-based speculator buying interest was featured in soybeans and meal today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.089 MMT for the week ended Nov. 6, up 103,702 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.7 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Center-west rainfall will be greatest late this week into next week and it will be very important for the boost to occur as advertised. Subsoil moisture is still low in much of center-west and northern center-south crop areas. Meantime, freezes occurring in the U.S Delta and southeastern states the next couple of days will end the growing season, but have little permanent damage.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.35 3/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.18 1/2 and then at Friday’s low of $11.08.
December soybean meal bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $304.00. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $325.20 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at last week’s low of $310.50.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.00 cents and then at the October high of 51.77 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.58 cents and then at last week’s low of 48.27 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 8 cents to $5.35 3/4, near the daily high. December HRW gained 7 3/4 cents to $5.27, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $5.64 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw corrective bounces after late last week’s sell offs. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace to start the trading week was also supportive for grain market bulls. It appears U.S. lawmakers may be getting closer to reopening the federal government. Wheat traders are awaiting this Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat inspections totaled 290,513 MT for the week ended November 6, down 59,780 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western High Plains. Moisture in the Midwest during the weekend was light and yet welcome for winter crop establishment in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Additional moisture would be welcome throughout the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin and some will fall during the coming weekend and next week. Cold weather in Canada and the U.S. during the weekend and that which lingers early this week in the U.S. will not have a negative impact on winter wheat. Warming later this week and into the weekend will be welcome, though. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has improved. Cooling during the next couple of weeks will begin pushing crops into dormancy.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show more power this week to keep the price uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.26 1/4 and then at $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at last week’s high of $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.17 3/4 and then at $5.05.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 69 points to 64.31 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw short covering and some perceived bargain buying amid better risk appetite in the general marketplace that saw U.S. and global stock markets rally on hopes the U.S. government will reopen sooner, as lawmakers appear to be closer to a deal to do such. Cotton traders are looking forward to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas cotton country much of the next two weeks will be dry and fieldwork should advance well around a few infrequent showers and better-organized rain Saturday into Sunday that may discolor some cotton before drier weather Nov. 17-24 allows fieldwork to resume and some cotton to be bleached white. Much of west Texas into southwestern Oklahoma and the Blacklands will receive 0.30-1.30” and locally more with lighter rain in the southern and eastern Panhandle and the Coastal Bend while south Texas misses much of the rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the October high of 66.10 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.52 cents and then at 63.00 cents.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.