Corn
Price action: July corn futures slumped 13 1/4 cents to $4.67 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term traders today. Heavy selling in the soy complex futures, as bean bulls were disappointed so far with the Trump-Xi summit in China—producing no concrete news of new China commitments to buy U.S. soybeans.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 684,400 MT for the week ended May 7, down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average.
World Weather Inc. today said southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms from late this week into mid-week next week to help reproducing and filling crops. Planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture to end drought. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded badly today. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but it is now in serious jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at $4.61 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 36 1/2 cents to $11.92 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. July soybean meal lost $6.00 to $332.50, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil lost 66 points to 73.66 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation today, following what is so far disappointing news for soybeans coming out of the Trump-Xi meeting in China. No specifics have been reported regarding new China purchases of U.S. soybeans. Downbeat weekly U.S. soybean export sales exacerbated selling. USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean daily sales of 252,000 MT to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26 and 132,000 MT during 2026-27. The agency also this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 102,100 MT, a marketing-year low, for the week ended May 7. Net sales were down 28% from the previous week and down 60% from the four-week average. Net sales of 80,800 MT were reported for 2026-27.
Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to reach a record 180.1 MMT in 2025-26, according to Conab, which was up from the previous estimate of 179.15 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said outside of a significant rain event Saturday into Tuesday, the Midwest will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks and planting should advance well while soil moisture is favorable for summer crop germination, establishment, and development. Rain Saturday into Monday will be important from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is marginal to short. Much of the Midwest will dry down Wednesday into May 28 and the drier areas mentioned above will need rain again soon while timely rain in the last days of the month would be beneficial for newly planted crops across the remainder of the Midwest as well. Another round of frost will occur in the far northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into
Wednesday before frost and a few light freezes occur in a larger part of the northwestern Corn Belt next Thursday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but faded badly today. A price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart is now in serious jeopardy. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.10. First support is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.70.
Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $338.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at $335.60 and then at $338.70. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at $325.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 74.51 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 17 1/2 cents to $6.58, nearer the daily low and early on hit a 1.5-year high for the contract. July HRW fell 19 1/2 cents to $7.05 1/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat fell 17 3/4 cents to $7.23.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today were hit with heavy profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators, as well as weak long liquidation from the specs that had just recently climbed on board the long sides. Big losses in the soy complex also spilled over into the wheat markets today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 133,500 MT for the week ended May 7, up 70% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average. Meanwhile, net sales totaled 221,100 MT for 2026-27.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2026-27 wheat harvest at 21.3 MMT, down from 27.8 MMT in the previous season.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country temperatures will trend very warm to hot once over the next few days stressing some of the U.S. crops. Additional moisture is not likely to be abundant and drying will return crop stress as the temperature continue very warm to hot. Most of the soft wheat in the Midwest remains in good condition.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.36. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at this week’s high of $6.88 1/4. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.36.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.64. First resistance is seen at $7.20 and then at today’s high of $7.32 1/2. First support is seen at $6.90 and then at $6.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 287 points to 83.94 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw heavy profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term traders today, as well as weak long liquidation. Solid losses in the grain futures markets today also spilled over into selling in the cotton market. Today’s weekly USDA export sales report were also bearish, showing U.S. cotton net sales totaling 47,700 RB for 2025/2026--a marketing-year low--were down 61 percent from the previous week and down 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (31,800 RB), Indonesia (4,100 RB) and Turkey (2,700 RB). Net sales of 29,700 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Vietnam (13,800 RB), Mexico (8,800 RB) and Bangladesh were offset by reductions for Pakistan (2,200 RB). Exports of 290,300 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week and down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (84,100 RB), Turkey (37,600 RB), Bangladesh (27,100 RB) and China (26,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be warm to hot and dry most often through Tuesday, with a few infrequent showers allowing for good planting progress while the soil will be too dry in most dryland areas to support cotton development. After that, a close watch will be made on Wednesday into Monday, May 25, when isolated to scattered showers should occur most days resulting in at least some temporary improvements in soil moisture with a more generalized rain needed to induce widespread, significant improvements in soil moisture. World Weather, Inc. believes that some of the computer forecast models still predicting soaking rain Wednesday into May 25 are exaggerating rainfall potentials. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will be dry most often into Sunday and fieldwork should advance well before showers and thunderstorms occurring most days Monday through May 28 slow fieldwork, while improving soil moisture with South Texas benefitting most from the rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but appear to be exhausted. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart, but the uptrend is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 88.88 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 85.00 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 82.86 cents and then at 82.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.