Corn
Price action: July corn rose 1 cent to $4.63 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week were up 7 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures started out the week with a bang but ended the week with a whimper. Key for the bulls during the holiday-shortened trading week next week will be keeping July futures prices above key technical support at the May low of $4.55. Hefty sell stop orders likely reside just below that level.
USDA today reported daily sales of 493,700 MT of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico and 110,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Next week’s reports will likely show most of the U.S. corn crop has been planted.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is drier for May 29-June 2 than what was advertised earlier this week and after regular rounds of rain occur in much of the lower Midwest into Thursday a much drier weather pattern will occur May 29-June 5 and any remaining planting should quickly increase. Additional rain is expected today in the drier areas from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota, but with little additional rain expected into June 5 the region will need rain again soon. Some local flooding is likely to result from moderate to heavy rain into Saturday from central and eastern Kentucky to Ohio. Central Iowa to Wisconsin and northern Illinois will see the least rain during the next two weeks. Meantime in Brazil, southern Safrinha corn areas continued to receive periodic rain and this trend will continue over the next ten days maintaining a very good outlook for yields and crop quality. Mato Grosso and Goias, however, will continue to dry down in many areas, hurting some yields in the driest areas. Argentina drying will be ideal for the maturation and harvest of summer crops.
90-day outlook: A lack of details surrounding potential purchases from China has weighed on futures. A return to the U.S. corn market by China would undoubtedly stir bullish sentiment but the lack of clarity has pushed traders into a “show me” mindset among old-crop contracts particularly. Concerns remain around fertilizer applications leaving the downside open on yield, which offers some support to new-crop corn. Nitrogen shortages will work to impact worldwide production, not only U.S. farmers, which could quickly shift the mindset of a market that is currently filled with plentiful corn. Don’t be surprised to see some degree of a weather market scare pop up rapidly in corn in the coming couple months. More years than not, one occurs. They develop quickly and can then fizzle out just as fast.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 2 1/4 cents to $11.96 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 19 1/2 cents. July soybean meal rose $3.50 to $331.90, nearer the daily high and for the week down $2.40. July bean oil gained 11 points to 73.98 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 10 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market started the week strong but faded as the week progressed. Lingering concerns that China will not be adding to U.S. soybean purchases above those agreed upon months ago continue to hang over the soybean and meal markets after the recent Trump-Xi meeting. USDA today reported daily sales 252,00 MT of U.S. soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations. Tuesday’s weekly USDA crop progress data will be closely scrutinized by soybean complex traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said soybean planting in the U.S. is advancing around periods of rainfall. A favorable mix of weather is expected to prevail in northern production areas through next week, supporting fieldwork of all kinds. Too much rain is expected in the coming week in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin, raising some concern over crop conditions. The late-June USDA plantings update will be an important early summer price point for the soy complex futures.
90-day outlook: West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures pushed back below the key $100-per-barrel mark at midweek on hopes of a U.S. peace deal with Iran, which in turn pressured price action in soy oil. However, longer term demand for biodiesel remains firm as inflation impacts are likely to linger from the steep rise in oil prices relative to year ago levels as governments around the globe look for ways to lower energy costs in hopes to limit the impacts. Soybean harvest in Brazil is now nearly complete, and cheaper supplies in South America are likely to limit any major purchases from China in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 1 1/4 cents to $6.46 1/4, near mid-range and the week up 10 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat lost 5 cents to $6.82, nearer the daily low, hit a two-week low and for the week down 6 cents. September spring wheat futures lost 3/4 of a cent to $7.10 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week were up 4 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets bulls were out of the gate strong on Monday but then faded after that. Profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation were featured this week. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in July SRW and HRW futures suggest there could be some more follow-through selling on Tuesday. However, there are still bullish fundamentals in the wheat market that are likely to come back to the fore. Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said warming coming to the U.S. Plains in this next week will be good for crop development rates. Rain in South Dakota and a part of Nebraska in the next two days will be welcome. There is some concern about wheat quality declines in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin where frequent bouts of rain are expected in this coming week. Meantime, waves of rain will impact portions of the western FSU during the next 10 days to two weeks. The potential for aggressive spring crop growth is high as temperatures turn notably warmer. There is some concern over possible wet weather diseases from Ukraine into western Russia during June. Wheat conditions in much of Europe are rated well with little change likely in the coming week. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn after early season flooding. Eastern Australia’s wheat and barley crops received some rain during the weekend and Monday. Drying is likely over the coming week which should lead to aggressive planting and crop development. Western Australia will be left in a net drying mode during the next week to 10 days, raising some concern over crop establishment and emergence.
90-day outlook: The U.S. SRW crop is coloring in the more southern growing regions and is also likely to see an early harvest, though to a lesser degree than that in the Plains. The end of the current marketing year is near and typically sees export sales sag until new-crop harvest begins. The supply story in HRW wheat has helped insulate it to a degree from the sharper losses elsewhere in the grains complex. Drought has remained less of a concern in HRS country, though the northern portions have noted upticks in recent weeks. Farmers have swiftly caught up on planting after freezing overnight lows had limited progress early.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 56 points to 77.42 cents, nearer the session low, hit a five-week low and for the week down 319 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market bulls have run out of gas as prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart, which suggests a market top is in place. Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in July cotton sets the stage for more chart-based selling pressure next Tuesday. Cotton traders will also scrutinize next Tuesday’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see daily showers through Wednesday that will slow planting while inducing beneficial increases in soil moisture that will induce likely temporary improvements in conditions for dryland cotton germination and establishment. Showers are expected to occur in parts of the region daily into Wednesday when much of the region receives 0.50-1.75” and locally more during the period. May 28-June 5 will be dry most often outside of showers in a large part of the region May 29-30 and good planting progress should be made, while much of the region will need timely rain in early June to prevent the soil from quickly drying out again. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will see a wet weather pattern through May 31, with rain in parts of the region most days during the period inducing notable increases in soil moisture that will benefit South Texas most while fieldwork is slowed. There is some potential for flooding to occur, especially in the Coastal Bend and South Texas, where rain will be heavy at times and drier weather in early June would likely be beneficial.
90-day outlook: Recent inflation concerns have turned cotton bulls on their heels due to worries of a decline in consumer demand for textiles. However, elevated crude oil prices are likely to persist in the coming months, while the U.S. stock indexes this week hit new record highs. These elements should limit the downside in the cotton futures market in the coming months. An improved longer-term technical posture and waning global cotton production are also likely to limit the downside in cotton futures in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.