Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1/2 cent to $4.44, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market backed off a bit late today after holding modest gains for much of the session. Mild profit taking from the shorter-term speculators was featured following Monday’s good gains. March corn prices are back in the middle of a choppy and sideways trading range.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine corn production estimate for 2025-26 by 2 MMT to 54.0 MMT, mainly on increased acreage and holds a neutral to higher bias going forward. Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian corn production estimate of 137.0 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. Initial safrinha corn planting has begun in isolated areas of Mato Grosso and Parana, said Cordonnier. The planting pace will accelerate as the soybean harvest increases. Conab will issue their first official estimate of the 2025-26 safrinha crop in the February USDA crop report.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in southern Argentina is a concern and with limited rain and periodic warm conditions expected over the week some yield potential may decline. Scattered showers from late this week through mid-month will be extremely important in stopping the decline in production potential. Any missed rain will worsen the situation. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the Decembers high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.53. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at this week’s low of $4.36 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $10.56 1/4 and near the daily low. March soybean meal lost 40 cents to $299.50, near mid-range. March soybean oil fell 47 points to 49.40 cents, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw corrective pullbacks after Monday’s gains. Selling interest was limited as USDA today reported daily sales of 336,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2025-26. Some in the trade are saying total China purchases of U.S. beans since the late-October trade truce is around 10 million MT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine 2025-26 soybean production estimates at 178.0 MMT and 49.0 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral-to-higher bias for both crops going forward. In Brazil, early harvest activity has started in Mato Grosso and Parana and has been confined to early maturing varieties or soybeans that were irrigated.
World Weather Inc. today said the driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see additional rain and improvements in crop and soil conditions today before a drier weather pattern Wednesday into at least next Tuesday causes the soil to quickly dry down again. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur elsewhere in Brazil and Paraguay during the next two weeks keeping soil moisture favorable for crop development while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, stress to crops will increase through this weekend in a large part of west-central into southern Argentina, where rain should not be great enough to prevent continued drying of the soil with serious stress to crops likely from central and southern San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa where the top and subsoil moisture is already short.
Much of the remainder of west-central into southern Argentina has enough subsoil moisture in place to prevent serious stress to crops right away, but crop stress should increase as the soil dries down. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for much of the country Monday into Thursday of next week and the driest areas in the west should receive enough rain to at least temporarily improve conditions for crops, while early indications suggest southeastern Argentina may miss out on significant rain.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $10.82 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.68 3/4 and then at $10.75. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at last week’s low of $10.46.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $303.00 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $295.20 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.43 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.04 cents and then at the 48.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 2 cents to $5.10 1/2, near the daily low. March HRW gained 3/4 cent to $5.21 1/2, nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.67.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls faded in late trading day, with HRW losing decent earlier gains. Wheat markets lost altitude late in the session as corn and soybeans did the same.
World Weather Inc. today said there is still no risk of winterkill in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas or in the soft wheat areas of the Midwest. Warm weather in the central United States this week will maintain low winter hardiness for wheat and it will be important for snow to fall prior to any bitter cold event that might take place later in January. Soil temperatures are warm enough for new wheat growth in the southern Plains and Delta. However, dryness in the Plains should prevent much development. Cooling is expected later this week and some rain and snow will precede or accompany the cooling trend, which will be welcome, though warming is possible again next week as the region dries out once again.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as SRW prices are trending down on the daily bar charts but HRW has turned sideways and choppy at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at last week’s contract low of $5.01 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.15 and then at last week’s low of $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 41 points to 65.06 cents, near mid-range and hit a seven-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting as the bulls are gaining some technical momentum. Gains in the grain futures markets this week and a weaker U.S. dollar index were also price-friendly outside markets for cotton futures today.
World Weather Inc. notes cotton areas in Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around a few rounds of infrequent precipitation. Much of western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive at least some precipitation Wednesday with moisture content up to 0.15 inch and locally more most common.The northwestern Panhandle will receive at least some snow Friday.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are now working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.76 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.