Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 13 1/4 cents to $4.54, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw spillover selling pressure from limit-down losses in the soybean and bean oil futures markets. Worries about deteriorating U.S.-China relations resurfaced today after President Trump over the weekend admonished China for not helping the U.S. keep the Strait of Hormuz secure. Lower crude oil prices today were also negative for corn futures. Some profit-taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term traders was also featured today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.66 MMT during the week ended March 12, up 136,270 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.0 to 1.7 MMT.
AgRural reported Brazilian farmers had planted 91% of the second crop in the country’s center-south region as of last Thursday, compared to 97% a year ago. The first corn harvest was 50% complete, well behind 72% a year earlier.
World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil and Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks and Safrinha corn planting should advance well. However, a significant portion of the crop will be planted after the ideal planting period and some producers may plant a crop other than corn. Parts of the region still have marginal to short soil moisture and conditions for Safrinha corn development will often be poor until greater rain falls and wetter weather this week will induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Paraguay will be wettest and will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana sees the least rain and more limited improvements in crop and soil conditions. In Argentina, a wetter weather pattern will occur during the next two weeks and all areas will see multiple rounds of rain that will slow fieldwork while improving conditions for crops in the drier areas. Enough rain should fall to induce significant improvements in soil moisture and at least a partial restoration of yield potentials is likely. The driest areas in Entre Rios will likely miss out on significant rain through Thursday before rain increases Friday.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.45 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at today’s high of $4.66. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.52 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell the daily limit of 70 cents to $11.55 1/4 and hit a more-than-two-week low today. May soybean meal fell $10.50 to $312.20, near the daily low. May soybean oil fell the daily limit of 350 points to 63.94 cents. Both soybean and bean oil futures will trade with expanded daily price limits on Tuesday.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex shuddered today as President Trump threatened to delay his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stressed China’s dependence on oil from the Middle East in an interview with the Financial Times and as reported by Bloomberg, as he reiterated a demand for Beijing to help unblock the key waterway. However, Treasury Secretary Bessent said any delay in the summit would not be due to deteriorating relations but instead due to President Trump not wanting to take his focus away from the war in Iran. Lower crude oil prices were also bearish for the soy complex today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 966,082 MT during the week ended March 12, down 79,079 MT from the previous week, but well above the expected pre-report range of 400,000 to 800,000 MT.
Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry has changed rules for the inspection of soybean cargoes bound for China. Globo Rural reported that under the new rule, soybean samples for inspection will be collected by shipping-supervision companies hired by the exporters, rather than the ministry inspectors.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 61% of their 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. A few showers are possible but the precipitation expected will not be very relieving and more moisture will be needed. In contrast, areas from Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso are becoming a little too wet or soon will be, which may delay some fieldwork. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay will receive some needed rain in the coming week, with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance in central Argentina and improve crop and field conditions in the east and into Uruguay.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls faded badly today as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at $11.35.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $319.80 and then at last week’s high of $323.10. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at $307.50.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.50 cents and then at 63.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 16 1/2 cents to $5.97 1/4, near the daily low. May HRW lost 13 1/2 cents to $6.16 1/2, near the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell 11 1/2 cents to $6.34.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw spillover selling pressure today from limit-down losses in soybeans and bean oil, and solidly lower corn prices, too. Lower crude oil prices today were also bearish for wheat.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 343,022 MT for the week ended March 12, down 155,574 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Russia’s grain exports rose 32.9% year-on-year in February to 3.2 MMT, according to shipping data from industry sources. Total exports have reached 36.1 MMT so far this season, down 5.1% on the year, according to the data.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry weather will occur through the next 10 days as an unusually strong high-pressure ridge for this time of year builds into the region. Temperatures will be below average today but will then be well above average Wednesday through Saturday, with record-breaking heat likely. Hard freezes this morning did not permanently harm the wheat crop, although the wild swings in temperature have likely been somewhat stressful and some heaving topsoil may be occurring. Rain and mild to cool weather is needed over an extended period of time in areas where the wheat crop was damaged during the winter to induce new tillers. In the Northern Plains, some limited precipitation will occur in the next seven days with a significant warming trend. Temperatures will be well below average today and then well above average Wednesday into Saturday, with record-breaking heat likely in southwestern production areas.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.13 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at $5.80.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at $6.25 and then at today’s high of 6.38. First support is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 234 points to 68.19 cents, nearer the session high and hit a 4.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw short covering and technical buying featured amid better risk appetite in the general marketplace and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Cotton traders were also encouraged by news top U.S. and Chinese economic officials held “remarkably stable” talks in Paris on Sunday that touched on potential areas of agreement in agriculture for President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to consider in Beijing, according to a Reuters report. Sources told Reuters that the “candid and constructive” Paris talks led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng would set in motion possible “deliverables” for Trump’s trip to China to meet with Xi at the end of March. But they added that the leaders would have the final say on the proposals. “The Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops, one of the sources said. Bulls are hoping U.S. cotton is also included.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. A few showers are possible over the next couple of weeks, but a general soaking seems unlikely. West Texas also needs rain, and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur late this month. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain early this week, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.00 cents and then at 69.50 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.