Corn
Price action: July corn rose 5 1/2 cents to $4.80 1/4, nearer the daily high and closed at a 13-month high close. For the week, July corn was up 16 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures bulls had a solid week as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close and a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart suggest more chart-based buying interest from the speculators next week. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 148,240 MT to unknown destinations. Of the total, 78,240 MT were for 2025-26 and 70,000 MT during 2026-27.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks will be infrequent and light enough to allow for good planting progress during the drier periods, with the greatest rain event occurring Monday into Tuesday from eastern Kansas to Michigan, Ohio, and Kentucky. Other areas will see fieldwork advance well with greater rain needed in the drier areas from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota and east-central South Dakota where recent rain did not fully restore the soil moisture. Light freezes will be common into Sunday as far south as northeastern Nebraska to Michigan to parts of northern Indiana and northern Ohio while scattered pockets of light freezes occur to the south of the region while frost occurs as far south as northeastern Kansas to northern Illinois to much of Ohio. Frost and some freezes will return to parts of the Midwest Tuesday into late next week. With a larger portion of summer crops emerged and winter wheat further advanced than today, impacts on those crops could be more significant than what results from this week’s cold with late next week coldest. Although more crops should be emerged next week, recent cool and wet weather in a large part of the region has likely limited planting and fewer new crops should be emerged by next week than if planting conditions were more favorable.
90-day outlook: Demand for corn remains mostly strong and offers support as new-crop contracts are working to test the key $5.00 mark. U.S. export sales continue to outpace the seasonal averages of recent years. U.S. ethanol production has declined for two consecutive weeks, though remains near year-ago levels. These are bullish elements that will at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 7 3/4 cents to $12.03 1/4, near the daily high, closed at a six-week high close, and for the week up 24 3/4 cents. July soybean meal rose $0.40 to $319.30, near mid-range and for the week up $0.20. July bean oil gained 62 points to 75.16 cents, near the daily high, hit a contract high, and for the week up 383 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market showed bullish promise this week as prices are now in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gains in corn and wheat futures recently have helped to pull beans higher. However, soybean meal remains a laggard and that’s worrisome to the bean bulls. Soybean planting progress will be tracked by USDA in its weekly crop progress report Monday.
Analysts expected this afternoon’s monthly USDA crush report to show U.S. soybean processors crushed 231.1 million bushels of soybeans in March. If realized, the crush would be up 7.9% from February and up 11.8% from March 2025. U.S. soyoil stocks were estimated at 2.555 billion pounds as of March 31, on average, according to a Reuters poll of five analysts.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some rain of significance is expected today into Saturday. Soil moisture in the U.S. Delta has improved greatly from recent precipitation, though more is needed.
30-day outlook: With tensions remaining high in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil surged this week and helped push soy oil to contract highs along the way, in part due to expectations of increased demand for biofuels around the globe. That strength is boosting soybeans. Soybean plantings in the U.S. is proceeding at record pace currently, and are at 23% as of past Sunday. The warm spring across the southern U.S. coupled with timely showers should lead to relatively quick emergence as well.
90-day outlook: The next three months will see U.S. soybeans pop out of the ground across the Midwest and as legendary grain analyst Conrad Leslie used to say: “All eyes will be on the skies,” watching the weather. More years than not some degree of a weather market develops in soybeans during the summer months. And given the past couple years have not seen significant weather scares develop in the summer, this year soybeans are overdue for such.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 1 cent to $6.37 3/4, nearer the daily low and the week up 21 cents. July HRW wheat gained 1 cent to $6.94 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week up 24 3/4 cents. July spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $7.04, near the daily low and for the week up 10 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures market saw some routine profit-taking pressure Thursday but the bulls bounced back today, although they did fade a bit to end the trading session. Most of U.S. HRW wheat country remains too dry.
World Weather Inc. today said any rain in the next seven days will occur mostly Monday into Wednesday due to a cold front and a weather disturbance. This is unlikely to be very much rain, but any rain would be better than none and some locally meaningful rainfall is expected where there are thunderstorms, especially north of Oklahoma. Another freeze in northwestern production areas Saturday morning will cause more burn-back but shouldn’t lead to permanent crop damage. In the Northern Plains, very little precipitation is still expected in the next seven days, though completely dry weather might not occur. Temperatures will be generally cooler than average in eastern production areas and warmer than average in the west, especially Montana.
30-day outlook: Weather continues to dominate the HRW market. With another potential freeze in the forecast, abandonment becomes more of a concern in addition to the already likely poor yields in the Plains. Lower yields would work in combination with the near record-low U.S. planted wheat acres to continue offer price support in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index sold off late this week and is back near its recent six-week low. Further depreciation in the USDX in the coming months would support better interest from foreign buyers of U.S. wheat. Harvesting of the U.S. winter wheat crop, including yields and quality, as summer progresses will be a feature in the wheat futures markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 199 points to 84.19 cents, near the session high, hit a contract high, and for the week up 483 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls paused early in the week and then hit the gas to end the week, as this major bull run rolls on with no strong, early technical clues to suggest the price uptrend will end any time soon. Risk appetite in the general marketplace improved late this week, which is also a positive for the cotton market.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. cotton planting has advanced well so far this season. Rain has been limited, though the forecast is offering some showers in the coming week to ten days. The precipitation will be minimal but that and some cooler conditions after this weekend will help the early crop establish well. Fieldwork should continue for a while longer, although much of the planting may already be done. Southern parts of west Texas will benefit from additional rain and increases in soil moisture today and conditions for planting and germination in dryland areas will improve while most other areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be left dry with some light rain in the west. Some computer forecast models are predicting significant rain May 9-10 for HRW country and a close watch will be made on the period with these models likely exaggerating rainfall potentials. The Delta received some welcome rain recently and more is coming in the south today and Saturday. The southeastern U.S. will continue in drought over the next ten days, despite the development of some showers and thunderstorms that will offer temporary relief today and Saturday.
90-day outlook: Cotton traders have taken note of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Thursday saying American officials discussed a possible “Board of Trade” in a call with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, casting it as a tool that could help manage economic ties between the two nations. The world’s two largest economies have been considering creating a new mechanism that could help oversee their trade ties and manage bilateral concerns that have flared in recent years. This news comes ahead of the upcoming summit between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, set for May 14-15. Better U.S.-China trade relations could well mean better Chinese demand for U.S. cotton.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.