Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.75 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a mild downside price correction and some chart consolidation following Monday’s solid gains.
USDA on Monday afternoon reported 76% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of May 17, up 19 percentage points on the week and six points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 39%.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier estimates U.S. planted corn areas of 93.8 million and harvested acreage of 86 million acres. He estimates the national average yield at 181 bu. Per acre, and total production at 15.566 billion bu. Meantime, Cordonnier increased his 2025-26 Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MMT, to 136 MMT, amid improved conditions for the southern safrinha crop. He left his Argentine estimate at 62 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward for both crops.
World Weather Inc. today said corn planting in the U.S. is advancing around periods of rainfall. A favorable mix of weather is expected to prevail through next week, supporting fieldwork of all kinds as well as quick seed germination and emergence. Ther will continue to be a need for greater rain in southeastern parts of the nation. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil continued to receive periodic rain and this trend will continue over the next ten days maintaining a very good outlook for yields and crop quality. Mato Grosso and Goias, however, will continue to dry down in many areas, hurting some yields in the driest areas.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.81 3/4 and then at $4.87 1/2. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 3 1/2 cents to $12.09 1/2, near the daily low. July soybean meal fell $2.20 to $332.30, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil lost 19 points to 75.44 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some routine chart consolidation and mild profit taking after Monday’s strong gains. It was a not a bad day at all for the bulls as they were able to hold most of Monday’s advance.
USDA on Monday afternoon estimated 67% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of May 17, up 18 percentage points from the previous week and 14 points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 32%.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier estimated U.S. soybean plantings at 86.2 million acres and harvested acreage at 85.1 million. He estimates total production at 4.425 billion bu. using a national average yield of 52.0 bu. per acre. Cordonnier also left his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 180 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias towards both crops going forward.
India’s soymeal exports are set to be cut in half during the current year to a four-year low after prices surged 47% over the past month, eroding competitiveness of Indian animal feed against South American supplies, according to Reuters. The drop is likely to help suppliers in South and North America increase soymeal shipments to Asian buyers that traditionally source from India.
World Weather Inc. today said the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt will see an active weather pattern through early next week, while one more round of rain impacts the remainder of the western Corn Belt, leaving much of the region with favorable soil moisture while planting is slowed. Rain will be most important from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is still marginal to short. Much of the Midwest will dry down overall May 27-June 2 and the drier areas mentioned above will need rain again soon, while the drying allows planting to steadily increase. Another round of frost and mostly light freezes will occur Wednesday from the eastern Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska into western and central Minnesota, with a few hard freezes in and near northeastern South Dakota where lows will cool to the upper 20s. Most soybeans in the frost and freeze region have not emerged, but those that have emerged will see burning back of vegetative development with a few pockets of permanent damage where temperatures are coldest.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.20 3/4 and then at $12.35. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at this week’s low of $11.91.
Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $338.20 and then at the November 2025 high of $343.00. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at $327.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained footing todayt. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 76.99 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 74.19 cents and then at 72.95 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 2 3/4 cents to $6.67 1/4, nearer the daily low. July HRW closed steady at $7.03 3/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 6 cents to $7.18
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures markets saw modest technical buying featured today, while HRW saw mild profit taking.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 27% good to excellent as of May 17, down one percentage point from last week. The portion of the crop rated poor to very poor rose three points to 43%. On our Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the HRW crop declined 11.39 points from last week to 241.61. The SRW wheat crop rating improved 1.2 points to 365.86.
World weather today said very warm to hot temperatures occurred in the central and southwestern U.S. Plains during the weekend and that will linger into Monday. The heat and dryness may have further stressed wheat, especially since relative humidity was quite low and wind speeds were high. Cooling later this week will bring frost and freezes back to the region from Montana to eastern Colorado, though no permanent crop damage is predicted. U.S. Midwest crops are likely developing favorably with little change likely.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.36. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.79 1/2 and then at the May high of $6.88 1/4. First support is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.64. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.20 and then at $7.32 1/2. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.80 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 137 points to 82.33 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw corrective selling following Monday’s strong gains. A bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoon showed 41% of the U.S. cotton crop planted as of Sunday versus 29% last Sunday and 38% one year ago at the same time, and a five-year average of 40% in the ground.
World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in place over the U.S. Delta and southeastern states, where some rain is expected during the next couple of weeks, although the southeastern states are unlikely to get much moisture. Parts of south Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will have opportunities for rain during the coming two weeks and that will improve crop conditions in dryland areas, although some of the moisture comes too late after weeks of little to no rain. West Texas rainfall potentials are rising for Wednesday into Thursday. That will be a very important rain event since moisture is needed for planting and emergence. There may be a few showers prior to that time and again next week, although the precipitation will be erratic and light.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action suggests bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. A bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 88.88 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 79.94 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 84.10 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 81.04 cents and then at the May low of 79.94 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.