Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.74 3/4, nearer the daily low after hitting another four-week high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw routine profit taking from the shorter-term traders today, following recent good gains. Losses in soybeans and winter wheat futures also spilled over into selling interest in corn futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.598 MMT during the week ended April 17, up 21% from the previous week and 22% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report expectations ranging from 1.0 to 1.9 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some rain of significance is expected Friday into Saturday. Soil moisture in the U.S. Delta has improved greatly from recent precipitation, though more is needed. Frost and freezes in the northern Corn Belt are likely over the next week. Meantime, Paraguay into Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul will receive at least some rain during the next ten days and fieldwork will be slowed at times while Safrinha corn develops in a favorable environment before shower activity diminishes and fieldwork increases May 10-14. Rain will be mostly restricted and fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks elsewhere in Brazil and soil moisture should support Safrinha corn for a while longer, but as the soil dries out stress to the crop will increase and with the dry season underway rainfall potentials in May are low.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.80 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.71 1/4 and then at $4.68 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 1 1/2 cents to $11.95 1/2, near mid-range and hit a six-week high early on. July soybean meal fell $4.90 to $318.90, near the daily low. July soybean oil gained 42 points to 74.54 cents, nearer the daily high and hit yet another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw a mild corrective pullback from this week’s gains. Losses in meal, wheat and corn futures markets today limited buying interest in beans. Spreaders were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 258,100 MT for the week ended April 17, down 29% from the previous week and 18% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in the Midwest during the next two weeks will be infrequent and light enough to allow for good planting progress during the drier periods, with the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt wettest. The west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will be driest and will see fieldwork advance well while greater rain will be needed in the drier areas from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota and east-central South Dakota where recent rain did not fully restore the soil moisture. Frost and light freezes will occur into Sunday with light freezes as far south as northeastern Nebraska to northern Iowa to Michigan to parts of northern Indiana and northern Ohio while frost occurs as far south as much northeastern Kansas to northern Illinois to much of Ohio. Frost and some freezes will return to parts of the Midwest late next week and with a larger portion of summer crops emerged and winter wheat further advanced than today, impacts on those crops could be more significant than what results from this week’s cold. Early indications suggest frost and some freezes would be most likely from the northwestern Corn Belt to the Great Lakes region. Recent wet weather in a large part of the region and cold temperatures in the far northwestern Corn Belt has likely limited planting and there may not be many new crops emerged by late next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the April high of $12.01 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.06 1/4 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at $11.85 and then at this week’s low of $11.76 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $315.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $324.10 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $318.00 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 77.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 67.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 72.33 cents and then at 71.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 16 1/4 cents to $6.36 3/4, near the daily low. July HRW lost 11 1/4 cents to $6.93 1/2, nearer the daily low. July spring wheat futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $7.05 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw follow-through selling from the late-session price pressure on Wednesday. Profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured. Bulls were disappointed that a sharply lower U.S. dollar index today provided no help to the wheat markets.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 226,100 MT for the week ended April 17, up 75% from the previous week up noticeably from the four-week average. Net sales of 156,700 MT were reported for the 2026-27 marketing year. Net sales were within the expected range of 0 to 300,000 MT for 2025-26 and 0 to 200,000 MT for 2026-27.
SovEcon raised its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.9 MMT to 47.4 MMT and raised its 2026-27 export forecast by 1.4 MMT to 45.2 MMT.
World weather today said drought relief in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas is unlikely to be very great, despite some scattered showers in the next ten days. Frost and freezes this weekend in Nebraska, northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado as well as the Midwest this weekend should not induce any serious threat to production. Meantime, showers will impact portions of the western FSU during the next ten days to two weeks. Cool temperatures will conserve soil moisture; though, resulting rainfall in Ukraine and Belarus will be restricted. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East. Some increase in rainfall is needed in parts of western Europe and some of that need should be fulfilled by next week. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn after early season flooding.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but appear to be exhausted late this week. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.71 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.57 3/4 and then at $6.71 1/2. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $7.18 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.06 3/4 and then at $7.18 1/2. First support is seen at $6.80 and then at $6.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose the 300-point limit to 82.20 cents and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw heavy technical buying interest as prices are trending strongly higher. The cotton market fundamental bulls are touting sharply higher crude oil prices and the resulting higher costs for synthetic fibers. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace today and a sharply lower U.S. dollar index also aided the cotton bulls.
USDA today reported weekly USDA U.S. cotton export sales of 162,900 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 36 percent from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (55,600 RB), Pakistan (33,300 RB) and Honduras (29,700 RB). Net sales of 105,700 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Turkey (66,100 RB), China (22,000 RB) and Guatemala (18,000 RB). Exports of 384,600 RB were up 30 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (155,000 RB), Pakistan (38,500 RB), Turkey (37,300 RB), India (34,500 RB), and Bangladesh (26,100 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said most of west Texas will benefit from significant rain and increases in soil moisture today into Friday and conditions for planting and germination in dryland areas will improve while rain in northeastern parts of west Texas, much of the Panhandle, and southwestern Oklahoma will be too light to significantly boost soil moisture. Western, central, and southern parts of west Texas will receive 0.60-1.75” of rain and locally more today into Friday while northeastern parts of West Texas, the Panhandle, and southwestern Oklahoma receive up to 0.75” and locally more with the northeastern Panhandle driest. Little additional precipitation is expected into May 14 and dryland cotton that is planted and germinates may run out of moisture before the plant becomes well established. Some showers will occur May 7-10 and the resulting rain will be beneficial and will improve conditions for dryland cotton establishment, but early indications suggest coverage of significant rain will be poor and most areas will be left in need of greater rain. The Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will benefit from rain into Friday and increases in soil moisture result before rain is infrequent Saturday into May 14 allowing for fieldwork to advance well while cotton develops with favorable soil moisture with another round of rain possible May 8-9.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 83.00 cents and then at 84.00 cents. First support is seen at 81.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.