Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.26 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some more corrective selling pressure today. The sharply lower U.S. dollar index today that slumped to a four-month low offered little help to the corn market bulls.
President Trump is in Iowa today speaking on the economy and energy, with speculation running high for a biofuels-related announcement after farm groups were angered last week over a failure of lawmakers to include year-round E-15 approval funding in legislation.
USDA today reported 110,000 MT of U.S. corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next week will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already drying down. Some welcome showers are advertised for western and interior southern Brazil later this week into next week easing dryness there. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.31 1/2 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.22 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $10.67 1/4, nearer the daily high. March soybean meal fell 30 cents to $294.00, near mid-range. March soybean oil rose 52 points to 54.41 cents, near the daily high and closed at a four-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The sharply lower U.S. dollar index today that slumped to a four-month low also aided the soy complex bulls. Spreaders were featured selling soybean meal and buying bean oil today.
China is expected to increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, as record production and competitive prices drive shipments, according to Reuters. Private soybean processors in China are locking in deals for Brazilian soybeans to be shipped from February onwards as harvest gathers momentum.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks with and the driest areas from Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo as well as western into central Bahia will benefit from the rain while fieldwork is slowed at times. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 6-10 in far southern Brazil where enough rain may fall to ease stress to crops and induce increases in soil moisture with confidence low for this event. In Argentina, additional rain will fall into Monday in west-central Argentina where the drier areas will benefit from further increases in soil moisture and improvements in crop conditions while central and eastern Argentina see little rain and rising levels of crop stress in the drier areas. “A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 3-7 as early indications suggest the widespread precipitation advertised will be adequate in improving conditions for crops in the driest parts of central and southern Argentina but with confidence low for this event,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.76 1/4 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.52 and then at the January low of $10.37 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at this week’s high of $302.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $292.70 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 54.71 cents and then at 55.00 cents. First support is seen at 54.00 cents and then at today’s low of 53.35 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 3/4 cent to $5.23 1/4 and near mid-range. March HRW rose 3 cents to $5.32 3/4 and near the daily high. March spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $5.71 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw a pause and some mild short covering following Monday’s selling pressure. The sharply lower U.S. dollar index today slumped to a four-month low limited selling interest in wheat futures.
Sovecon agriculture consultancy raised its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 MMT to 45.7 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, very little precipitation is expected in the next seven days. Temperatures will trend warmer today and Wednesday. However, a new surge of arctic air will lead to cooling again for Friday into Saturday. Subzero morning low temperatures are expected in the eastern half of the region Saturday. Snow cover should still be in-place though and some light snow before then could help promote additional coverage in Nebraska. A more-significant period of warming is expected in the second week of the outlook. In the Northern Plains, below to well below average temperatures will continue through Friday as arctic air further dominates the weather pattern. The arctic air is then expected to rapidly exit the region this weekend and above normal temperatures will then likely occur for around one week before arctic air potentially settles back in. Snow in the first seven days of the outlook should help fill in snowless gaps that remain in southwestern production areas.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. This is likely “basing” action that will put in a market bottom at some point and likely sooner rather than later. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.33 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.19 1/4 and then at $5.14 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 86 points to 63.83 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw a decent corrective bounce today, mostly on short covering and perceived bargain hunting after hitting a contract low on Monday. The sharply lower U.S. dollar index today that slumped to a four-month low also aided the cotton market bulls today.
World Weather Inc. today said many cotton areas from southeastern Arizona through Texas and the Delta to portions of the southeastern states were impacted by a weekend snow, rain and ice storm. The moisture will be good for crops in the spring although South Texas received little to no rain and West Texas moisture was also limited. Drought continues from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama into the eastern Carolinas, despite the precipitation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.06 cents and then at 64.50 cents. First support is seen at 63.00 cents and then at the contract low of 62.55 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 3 points to 64.88 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today paused following Monday’s gains. Mostly lower grain futures prices limited buying interest in cotton. However, sellers were kept at bay as crude oil prices rallied to a three-month high today.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season, though recent weather has improved and much of the planting should now be complete or nearly complete. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures would be best for the crop.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.47 cents and then at 64.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.