Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.49, near the daily low and closed at a three-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw renewed technical selling pressure today and was also pressured by a downtick in trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace today.
USDA on Monday afternoon estimated U.S. corn plantings to be 3% complete as of Sunday. Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 132 MMT, but raised his Argentine corn production estimate 1 MMT to 54 MMT. He holds a neutral-to-lower bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral-to-higher bias toward the Argentine crop.
World Weather Inc. today said corn-planting potential in the U.S. is looking favorable for the lowermost Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, despite a few bouts of rain. The recent boost in soil moisture may stall early season planting, but the moisture will prove to be very good for crop development later this spring and fieldwork will resume with a few days of drying. Meantime, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected in much of Brazil’s crop areas during the next 10 days, supporting late season crop development and some ongoing harvest activity. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the central and south and additional wet weather early this week will delay crop maturation and harvesting.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.55 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.45 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 8 1/2 cents to $11.58 1/4, nearer the daily low. May soybean meal lost $4.80 to $311.80, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. May soybean oil fell 23 points to 69.72 cents, nearer the daily low after hitting a contract high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw technical selling pressure. Soy complex bulls were also mostly on the sidelines today amid keener risk aversion in the general marketplace.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina by 1 MMT each, pegging Brazil’s 2025-26 production at 179 MMT and Argentina’s at 48 MMT. Cordonnier also raised his production estimate for Paraguay by 500,000 MT to 12 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in the U.S. Midwest has saturated the topsoil in northern and central parts of the region, preventing early season fieldwork from occurring for a while. Cool temperatures early this week will keep fields wet until the next wave of precipitation begins late this week through early to mid-week next week. That may translate into some delayed planting, but improved weather should come along later in the month to induce some welcome drying.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.53 and then at the March low of $11.45 1/4.
Soybean meal bears now have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling downtrend line in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $317.40 and then at this week’s high of $319.10. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at $307.60.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 72.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 70.49 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.98, nearer the daily high. May HRW fell 3/4 cent to $6.07 1/2, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $6.41 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure today, while the HRW market saw some short covering. Buying interest was limited today by keener risk aversion in the general marketplace.
On Monday afternoon, USDA rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 35% good to excellent, well below analysts’ expectations and last year’s rating of 48%.
Argus raised its 2026-27 forecast for wheat production in Russia due to improved yields and a larger planted area estimated for the winter wheat crop.
World Weather Inc. today said Oklahoma and many wheat areas in the Midwest received significant moisture during the holiday weekend, improving wheat yield potential for later this spring. Most other hard red wheat areas in the U.S. Plains still need significant rain. A few showers may fall in the western high Plains region of hard red winter wheat country later this week into next week, though a general soaking of rain is unlikely and more rain will be needed.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls and bears are on a leven overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.88 and then at $5.80.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.48 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.15 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.91 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 36 points to 71.31 cents, nearer the session low and hit an 11-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today paused and saw some mild profit taking after recent solid gains. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today did limit buying interest in cotton.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 5% of the U.S. cotton crop had been planted as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas will see some improving opportunities for showers in the high and low Plains during the coming week to 10 days. However, there will be an ongoing need for greater rain. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. Timely rain occurred in the U.S. Delta during the weekend, though some additional moisture is desired. Drought is becoming more serious in the southeastern corner of the nation from northern Florida to Virginia and little relief is expected for the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 73.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 72.15 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.78 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.