Corn
Price action: July corn plunged 14 3/4 cents to $4.54 1/4, the lowest close since Dec. 19.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended last week’s price to start the first full week of May, with bears scoring a five-week intraday low. Crude oil losses were certainly a culprit of today’s weakness, following a weekend decision by OPEC+ to accelerate oil output hikes, which could bring back as much as 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in production by November, according to five OPEC+ sources with knowledge on the matter. For now, the group has agreed to another 411,000-bpd production hike for June, with the total it plans to release in April, May and June to nearly reach 1 million bpd.
Also delivering duress to corn futures was a retort from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to a proposal from President Trump to deploy U.S. troops to combat drug cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum cited sovereignty concerns amid the dispute. This causes particular unease from a trade perspective as it threatens to unravel what had been one of Trump’s more stable bilateral relationships as Sheinbaum and managed to navigate Trump’s demands on trade and border enforcement. Mexico has been a steady purchaser of U.S. corn throughout the marketing-year, making the commodity more vulnerable amid such a dispute.
Planting conditions in the upper Midwest and west-central Corn Belt have proven favorable amid mostly dry conditions, which are expected to prevail through May 19. Rapid planting progress is expected to continue, while areas of the southern Mississippi and Tennessee river basins remain too wet.
This morning, USDA reported weekly export inspections totaled 1.61 MMT (63.3 million bu.) during the week ended May 1, down 58,065 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 1.3 MMT to 1.75 MMT.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report, with analysts anticipating corn plantings advanced to 41% complete as of Sunday, which would represent a 17-point increase, if realized.
Technical analysis: July corn futures plummeted to begin the week, ending the session below the 200-day moving average of $4.61 1/4. Bears will continue to work towards a close below the March 28 low of $4.50 1/2, with next support then serving at $4.25. Meanwhile, resistance will now serve at the 200-, 40-, 10-, 100- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $4.61 1/4 to $4.81 3/4.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed 12 1/2 cents lower at $10.45 1/2 and settled nearer session lows. July meal fell $1.4 to $295.5. July bean oil slid 70 points to 48.73 cents, nearer session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans fell in tandem with the majority of the grain and oilseed complex as the marketplace continues to be discouraged with the lack of progress on the trade front. The biggest indicator that trade concerns are driving trade is the liquidation seen in the July-Nov calendar spread, which made a high at 29 cents on Friday before falling to a low of 23 cents today. That type of selling in early May is rather surprising and a cause for concern. July-Nov is following the July-Dec corn spread, which has sustained even sharper selling pressure over the past week. This can be partially be explained by the export shipments pace. While soybeans have already shipped the vast majority of this crop year’s exports, corn still has a long way to go and is more susceptible to trade policies in the near future. The lack of putting pen to paper on trade deals that have been touted for weeks is finally weighing on the marketplace.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 324,101 MT (11.9 million bu.) during the week ended May 1, down 133,743 MT from the previous week and near the low end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 600,000 MT. Inspections continue to run ahead of pace but have begun slowing in the past couple of weeks.
USDA will report their weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon. A poll of analysts done by Bloomberg shows expectations for the soybean crop to be 29% planted as of May 4, which would be 4% ahead of last year. Dry weather is expected over the majority of the Midwest over the next ten days and planting should advance well around limited showers, says World Weather Inc. Moisture is expected to return to much of the Soy Belt mid-month.
Technical analysis: July soybeans saw sharp selling alongside corn and wheat today, though the near-term trend remains sideways. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $10.44 1/2, though stiffer support stems from the 40-day moving average at $10.42 3/4. Resistance comes in at the psychological $10.50 mark, which is in line with the 10-day moving average, then last week’s high close of $10.62 1/2.
July meal futures continue to languish near recent lows in a tight downtrend as bears retain the technical advantage. Support stems from last week’s for-the-move low close of $294.3 and is reinforced by the contract low close at $290.3. Bulls are seeking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $297.3 which has capped the upside the last several weeks.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 11 3/4 cents to $5.31 1/4 and near the session low. July HRW wheat fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.32 3/4, near the session low. July spring wheat futures fell 1 1/2 cent to $6.09 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Technical selling pressure was featured in the wheat futures markets today as the charts remain firmly bearish. Weather in U.S. wheat country still leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in the central U.S. “have improved and that trend will continue in some areas, although portions of Oklahoma are expected to become too wet once again.” Most of the soft wheat in the Midwest is also expected to develop favorably. Meantime, winter wheat crops in much of Europe are beginning more aggressive growth while spring cereals are being put into the ground. “Moisture conditions are good and should remain that way, despite drier-biased conditions in the north.” Cooler-than-usual temperatures in northeastern Europe may bring on more frost and freezes to slow crop development in the next week to ten days. “Frost and light freezes may reach into Ukraine again later this week into the weekend, but readings will not be cold enough for permanent crop damage,” said World Weather.
USDA this morning reported disappointing U.S. wheat export inspections of 310,326 MT during the week ended May 1, down 338,874 MT from the previous week and below pre-report expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 50% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, compared to 49% in the same categories last week at the same time and a five-year average of 50%. U.S. spring wheat planted is seen at 44% as of Sunday, compared to 30% last week and 47% for the five-year average.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.48 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.46 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.30 3/4 and then at the contract low of $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 1 point to 68.42 cents, marking a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures held a narrow range today, limited by resistance at the 100-day moving average, while a weaker U.S. dollar and technical support curbed more meaningful selling interest. Traders continue to look for signs of a possible U.S./China tariff compromise or changes to the looming reciprocal tariffs set to kick in in early July amid a three-month delay imposed by President Trump. Over the weekend, Trump indicated new trade agreements may be announced as early as this week. He also called for a “fair” and “balanced” deal with China but confirmed he does not plan to speak directly with President Xi Jinping this week. “We’re talking to them—we’ll see what happens,” he said, suggesting potential announcements soon without committing a timeline. Trade talks with India were reported to be “progressing very well,” with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoing the U.S. is “very close” to finalizing a deal. Negotiations with Japan and South Korea are also moving forward. Trump also noted in recent interviews that over 200 deals have been completed, though there is looming skepticism around such claims as the volume of such deals typically takes months or years to finalize. Nevertheless, momentum appears to be building with key partners such as India and China, and selective announcements may be forthcoming.
World Weather Inc. maintains planting prospects in West Texas are improving greatly amid recent rains, while South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will receive “some” rain after May 7. Meanwhile, field conditions in the Delta have been improving recently, although a return of significant rain may set back fieldwork once again.
USDA will update planting progress in its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report this afternoon. Last week, cotton plantings were estimated to be 15% complete as of April 27, one-point ahead of the five-year average.
Technical analysis: July cotton tested the 100-day moving average, trading at 68.55 cents, and fell just short of closing above the level, which is backed by resistance at the April 25 high of 68.45 cents. Bulls will continue to look toward the 70.00 cent area, while bears remain focused on edging back below the April 4 low of 62.05 cents. However, notable support at the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from 67.69 cents to 67.16 cents should help encumber bear efforts.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.